Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[attallaman]

I checked the forum out but on my computer's screen much of the text I saw was words on top of words, was difficult to read.

[rainman31]

u have to scroll down to the bottom

[srainhoutx]

Back on Topic. A quick glance at the 18Z NAM suggests a vigorous Trough diving into the Southwest. The Upper Low appeared a bit further S at hour 84. GFS suggests a shortwave and Coastal Trough behind the Pre Christmas Storm as well as some very chilly air very far into the GOM. It's the 18Z run so I wouldn't bet the ranch on it but if the trends continue with the 00Z runs, we may need to keep an eye on things.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

That's what I was thinking as well. Most models have not done very well picking up the gulf lows we have had until a couple of days beforehand. It is pretty clear that after christmas it will get cold and then probably colder as another surge comes through. With that said we could see another disturbance crank up in the gulf throwing moisture into that cold air. Models really wont pick up on much until we get closer to christmas, so its just a sit and wait to see if the gulf coast gets a chance at any winter precip again. But IMO things are looking pretty good that some folks will see some type of precip in the next two weeks. The cold air should be here its just waiting on the moisture to return.

[attallaman]

That's what I was thinking as well. Most models have not done very well picking up the gulf lows we have had until a couple of days beforehand. It is pretty clear that after christmas it will get cold and then probably colder as another surge comes through. With that said we could see another disturbance crank up in the gulf throwing moisture into that cold air. Models really wont pick up on much until we get closer to christmas, so its just a sit and wait to see if the gulf coast gets a chance at any winter precip again. But IMO things are looking pretty good that some folks will see some type of precip in the next two weeks. The cold air should be here its just waiting on the moisture to return.

I checked my extended local forecast on Accuweather.com and it says on the night of January 1st I'll have a low of 33 degrees F with steady rain, the feel like temperature will be 13 degrees F. With a temperature of 33 degrees F and steady rain could I get some snow or not? If it's forecasted to be a low of 33 degrees F with a feel like temperature of 13 degrees F there must be some wind factored in but there was no mention of wind on Accuweather.com, just steady rain.

[weatherguy425]

All accuweather is, is formatted model data, I would not take any of their forecasts more than a grain of salt...

[weatherguy425]

Oz is running, lets see what it shows...

[vbhoutex]

That's what I was thinking as well. Most models have not done very well picking up the gulf lows we have had until a couple of days beforehand. It is pretty clear that after christmas it will get cold and then probably colder as another surge comes through. With that said we could see another disturbance crank up in the gulf throwing moisture into that cold air. Models really wont pick up on much until we get closer to christmas, so its just a sit and wait to see if the gulf coast gets a chance at any winter precip again. But IMO things are looking pretty good that some folks will see some type of precip in the next two weeks. The cold air should be here its just waiting on the moisture to return.

I checked my extended local forecast on Accuweather.com and it says on the night of January 1st I'll have a low of 33 degrees F with steady rain, the feel like temperature will be 13 degrees F. With a temperature of 33 degrees F and steady rain could I get some snow or not? If it's forecasted to be a low of 33 degrees F with a feel like temperature of 13 degrees F there must be some wind factored in but there was no mention of wind on Accuweather.com, just steady rain.

The answer to that question is not entirely simple. My first question, which I'm sure is not answered by the AW posting is, is that 33f the temp after the rain has set in and possibly cooled down/saturated the layers of the atmosphere as much as possible or is that just the predicted ambient temperature. Basically at 33f I would not be surprised to see some flakes, but as I have stated before, in the South it is very difficult to get the ingredients to all "line up" for snowfall and the hardest part of that "solution" is to get all the layers of the atmosphere cold enough for snow since cold in the South is usually shallow as opposed to deep(through all layers) like it would be further North.

[orangeblood]

check out the high building in Northwest Canada by late next weekend on the Gfs 00Z run. Things are really going to get interesting around the middle of next week!

[orangeblood]

For those of you texas winter weather lovers, the GFS 00Z run forecast the blizzard of the century covering almost the entire state of Texas around the new year.

[Ntxw]

Probably isn't going to happen. But there looks to be several chances for wintry weather.

[HockeyTx82]

Like I said a few pages ago I was going to stay away from here for a few days and I did, so what did I miss?

Anyhow, just picked this up.....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
922 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2009

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK AND JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TONIGHTS PARAMETERS WERE MADE. LOWERED LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES IN
THE EAST AND RAISED THEM A LITTLE IN THE WEST WHERE THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER.

OTHERWISE A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH 0Z NAM NOW INDICATING POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. AND IN
CLASSIC TEXAS FASHION...WINTER-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPERIENCED
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL APPEARS TO BE NW OF THE CWA...BUT A
COUPLE MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE RED RIVER THURSDAY MORNING. BUT BY THE TIME THE
COLUMN COOLS SUFFICIENTLY FOR SNOW OVER OUR AREA...THE LIFT FOR
PRECIP WILL BE DIMINISHING. NO WINTER IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED IN
OUR AREA AT THIS TIME...AND GIVEN THE OTHER USUAL INHERENT
FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES...THE CURRENT FORECAST OMITTING ANY
MENTION OF SNOW SEEMS APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME.

[Stormcenter]

Can you please post the lastest GFS model map you are referring to. Thanks!

For those of you texas winter weather lovers, the GFS 00Z run forecast the blizzard of the century covering almost the entire state of Texas around the new year.

[HockeyTx82]

Why do they even put the long range out on this page, look at 192hours and beyond. That is crazy!!!

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KFTW

[Ntxw]

Can you please post the lastest GFS model map you are referring to. Thanks!

For those of you texas winter weather lovers, the GFS 00Z run forecast the blizzard of the century covering almost the entire state of Texas around the new year.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_288s.gif

[richtrav]

Why do they even put the long range out on this page, look at 192hours and beyond. That is crazy!!!

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KFTW

Hehe, thanks for the heads up on the latest laugh, best I've had all night. I mean, I love this stuff, it couldn't get any better if I made it up myself: -2 for Austin and no freeze for Corpus.

[srainhoutx]

EC to rolling on the PSU site. Surprises are ahead...

[Ntxw]

EC to rolling on the PSU site. Surprises are ahead...

I'm not experienced in reading the EC, could you please explain what you see?

[srainhoutx]

The free site will be up in about 15 minutes, but the low track is much further S into TX before turning NE and heading into E KS/W MO very slowly I might add. The model mayhem continues.

[Ntxw]

The free site will be up in about 15 minutes, but the low track is much further S into TX before turning NE and heading into E KS/W MO very slowly I might add. The model mayhem continues.

That sounds good thanks!