ATL: IRENE - Models

[Aric Dunn]

I think the GFDL is on drugs, this is going to develop, on the other hand the other hand the HWRF is also on drugs, intensifies this too fast

hehe... ones on a upper ( hwrf) and one is on a downer ( gfdl) lol

[Ivanhater]

GFS Ensembles...much further west

[Aric Dunn]

GFS Ensembles...much further west

Actually that about half and half.. hence the model itself right up the middle..

[Rgv20]

12zUKMET by 144hrs had 97L tracking thru the Yucatan Channel, In my opinion its still a believable solution as some of the GFS and ECMWF ensembles still hint at a possible Central GOM event.

12zUKMET 144hrs

[KWT]

Rgv20, any model at the moment could be right in theory, just about most of them agree with one thing though, that the system develops.

GFS ensembles still spread out later on but good agreeemnt upto Cuba.

[Ivanhater]

Aric, they were all clustered close to the Florida Peninsula on earlier runs...the spread of much further west this run...remember the operational was very close to getting trapped by the building ridge, they was faster and stronger on the 12z run...Uncertainty as far as the east central or Peninsula is still great imo

[plasticup]

Its amazing that the GFDL does nothing with 97L..

It's not that GFDL doesn't develop it, it is that the model loses track of the system before it reaches the explosive environment.

[Ivanhater]

You can see the models have shifted west today on the spaghetti plot

[Aric Dunn]

You can see the models have shifted west today on the spaghetti plot

[img]https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_97.gif[/ig]

very slight shift.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 1&title=97

[KWT]

UKMO starts way too far WSW, if it started where this system is it'd probably be not that far from the rest of the model cluster.

[ROCK]

I suspect they will shift even further west...as this takes its sweet time to develop....the trend is for a weaker trof and the ridge building in....climo speaker I would lay bets on the latter.....

[weatherguy2]

Yeah, I bet when it starts getting some deeper pressure the GFDL will pick up on it.

Interpolated UKMET is a big part of the best consensus tracks (that are near or equal to the Euro in accuracy), so its more western track will put some weight westward on consensus.

Which is likely why the HPC has a Gulf track.
Along with they likley have best consensus tracks that are not avalible to the public such as the Florida State Superensemble (FSSE) which is very accurate and better than the Euro in accuracy.

[SouthFLTropics]

Yeah, I bet when it starts getting some deeper pressure the GFDL will pick up on it.

Interpolated UKMET is a big part of the best consensus tracks (that are near or equal to the Euro in accuracy), so its more western track will put some weight westward on consensus.

Ahhhh...Blasphemy speaking of another model being equal to the ALMIGHTY EURO! All hail Euro...

SFT

[calmbeforestorm1]

Rock....the 12z GFS doesn't show a closed low at the surface until 39 hrs but still turns it into S. Fla and still gives it plenty of time over water to develop into a strong storm.

[KWT]

I suspect they will shift even further west...as this takes its sweet time to develop....the trend is for a weaker trof and the ridge building in....climo speaker I would lay bets on the latter.....

That is something to really keep in mind, because most models develop the system within the next 36hrs, so itf its not got going by then then the models wil have been too quick in development.

[TwisterFanatic]

Model Wars commence!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I suspect they will shift even further west...as this takes its sweet time to develop....the trend is for a weaker trof and the ridge building in....climo speaker I would lay bets on the latter.....

Exactly. As the models are finally starting to see stronger ridging building in along with a flatter, weaker trof look for them to catch up with the track and move 97L further west towards the central gulf in line with the ensembles. Also you can throw out the few that show this recurving east of Florida. Around <1% of that happening especially since this is taking its time getting going. That leaves some hitting Florida and running north up the peninsula while all the rest go through the central/eastern gulf.

[deltadog03]

I still *favor* the further WEST option (as of now)....Time and time again, these usually take off a bit slowly.....So, for now.....I favor the EGOM

[psyclone]

still looks like the vast majority have the potential cyclone gaining big time latitude between 80 west (about palm beach longitude) and 85 west (about apalachicola). plenty of time for them to shift one way or the other but that 80 to 85 theme has been pretty consistent thus far.

[LaBreeze]

I suspect they will shift even further west...as this takes its sweet time to develop....the trend is for a weaker trof and the ridge building in....climo speaker I would lay bets on the latter.....

Exactly. As the models are finally starting to see stronger ridging building in along with a flatter, weaker trof look for them to catch up with the track and move 97L further west towards the central gulf in line with the ensembles. Also you can throw out the few that show this recurving east of Florida. Around <1% of that happening especially since this is taking its time getting going. That leaves some hitting Florida and running north up the peninsula while all the rest go through the central/eastern gulf.