ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[KWT]

tpr1967, you've posted the same recon fix twice

The thing with that may well be they got a better fix on the true center, its hard to say after just two passes, really need another one before seeing if thats actually a motion

[jinftl]

i am truly an amateur at this so i apologize if any of the wording i used wasn't clear....it just seems like hanna is moving west alot faster than forecast...and that to meet the model forecasts, she should be slowing down already. some west shift seems almost inevitable at 5pm.

could her weak state be assisting in a more west movement...less influence of what we thought would slow her down?

jinftl ok i understand , wasn't sure if that was what EVeryone was debating

we could use a pro met in here, derek ortt

AJC3 will probably drop by soon because he gave us a ton of good info last nite

he could also inform us about the latest thinking on intensity uncertainty's and this pesky ULL

[storms in NC]

Right now we are looking at a week from today. That is a long time. any thing can happen

[Trader Ron]

Latest HWRF @ 126 hrs takes Hanna right into Va.....

[captain east]

nvm...

[tpr1967]

Go back and see it i messed up hehe.

[jlauderdal]

Also guys haven't you noticed that the center has moved 10 minutes s and 11 minutes w
since earlier recon.
714
URNT12 KNHC 311624 CCA 518
URNT12 KNHC 311751
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/17:36:20Z
B. 23 deg 32 min N
070 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 1412 m
D. 44 kt
E. 046 deg 105 nm
F. 122 deg 045 kt
G. 043 deg 049 nm
H. 997 mb
I. 19 C/ 1520 m
J. 19 C/ 1520 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF302 0108A HANNA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 48 KT SE QUAD 15:59:10 Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C, 43 / 49NM

2nd Fix
518
URNT12 KNHC 311751
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/17:36:20Z
B. 23 deg 32 min N
070 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 1412 m
D. 44 kt
E. 046 deg 105 nm
F. 122 deg 045 kt
G. 043 deg 049 nm
H. 997 mb
I. 19 C/ 1520 m
J. 19 C/ 1520 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF302 0108A HANNA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 48 KT SE QUAD 15:59:10 Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C, 43 / 49NM

Thats a sw movement

i would expect a track shift 50-75 miles west at 5 based on today's motion and the ukmet standing firm, lets see if the gurus at nhc agree

[tpr1967]

yes i copy and pasted same vdm twice.
i don't know how to do quote feature on here well yet.

[captain east]

yes i copy and pasted same vdm twice.
i don't know how to do quote feature on here well yet.

Just look at the post and on the bottom right will be a quote button, click it.

[jinftl]

The 5pm discussion from the NHC should be interesting...the last few have been very interesting to read because you can almost see the thought process that goes into processing the model runs. They have made a point in the last 2 discussions to state the UKMET is an outlier but can't be completely dismissed since it is usally a good performing model.

They wrestle with reconciling data with model forecasts..and to be honest...usually do an amazing job at producing a forecast from that.

Also guys haven't you noticed that the center has moved 10 minutes s and 11 minutes w
since earlier recon.
714
URNT12 KNHC 311624 CCA 518
URNT12 KNHC 311751
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/17:36:20Z
B. 23 deg 32 min N
070 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 1412 m
D. 44 kt
E. 046 deg 105 nm
F. 122 deg 045 kt
G. 043 deg 049 nm
H. 997 mb
I. 19 C/ 1520 m
J. 19 C/ 1520 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF302 0108A HANNA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 48 KT SE QUAD 15:59:10 Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C, 43 / 49NM

2nd Fix
518
URNT12 KNHC 311751
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/17:36:20Z
B. 23 deg 32 min N
070 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 1412 m
D. 44 kt
E. 046 deg 105 nm
F. 122 deg 045 kt
G. 043 deg 049 nm
H. 997 mb
I. 19 C/ 1520 m
J. 19 C/ 1520 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF302 0108A HANNA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 48 KT SE QUAD 15:59:10 Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C, 43 / 49NM

Thats a sw movement

i would expect a track shift 50-75 miles west at 5 based on today's motion and the ukmet standing firm, lets see if the gurus at nhc agree

[bucman1]

Doesn't the 12Z UKMET take the storm up the west coast of Fla?

[KWT]

Yeah the NHC will probably be forced into making at least a short term westerly shift in the track though given the model data may well hold back on any shift in the longer range.

[cpdaman]

hopefull recon goes thru and gets another VDM fix

this will tell us wether the center has indeed turned WSW or SW

my guess is it will because otherwise it would have to get further away from the ULL, and apparently hanna likes the company

[Patrick99]

Somehow, based on the way it's moving now, I can't buy off on it being nearly in the same place come Wednesday, and then shooting off to the NW. I still think this has Florida's name on it. Of course, given how ragged it looks, it may be only as a tropical wave.

[Trader Ron]

Track shift of 50-75 miles WEST would make a big difference, because of the angle of the coast.

[canes04]

It appears the ULL has finally weakend and with Gus moving faster Hanna may find herself
in a better enviroment tomorrow. I see better organization today and we may see her wrap up tomorrow and strengthen to cat1 by tomorrow night.
I see a straight west track for 48hrs. After that all bets are off.

[Patrick99]

I'm having a hard time locating the actual center even on the visible loop, but I could swear it just took a dip to the WSW.

[KWT]

Well its certainly turning out to be a very messy looking system, not all that surprising given the interaction between the ULL and Hanna.

Still looking at the big picture, still bursting convection very often.

[Patrick99]

To my untrained eye, it seems to be having a problem with dry air entrainment from the north.

[jinftl]

Could the poor organization result in a more west track....the idea being that a less organized system than even forecast is not going to be as influenced to slow/turn?

Well its certainly turning out to be a very messy looking system, not all that surprising given the interaction between the ULL and Hanna.

Still looking at the big picture, still bursting convection very often.