ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[MississippiWx]

Im sorry my last post was from the mobile NWS,I wonder how it could be so different from Jackson NWS?

I think all the Mobile NWS means by "not expected to redevelop" is that the NHC or HPC isn't forecasting that yet. It's pretty obvious that the models are redeveloping a surface reflection and deepening it each run. If they meant something else by that, then I think they are missing out on what could happen.

[southerngale]

NWS LCH mentions a flood threat, but doesn't appear to see a tropical development threat out of it.

From the afternoon AFD a few minutes ago:

INTERESTING FEATURE HEADING OUR WAY BY EARLY TO MID OF NEXT WEEK.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ALABAMA WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF T.D.
5 APPEARS THAT IT WILL MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
NORTH GULF COAST REGION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALL MODELS SUGGEST
THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTHWARD. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER
AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM. THIS
SLOW MOVING FEATURE COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA.
HPC FOUR TO FIVE QPF OUTLOOK SUGGEST TOTALS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES IN
SOME AREAS. NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS IS A FEATURE COULD BRING THE AREA
A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT. STAY TUNED.

I picked up nearly an inch this afternoon in thunderstorms and have gotten quite a few of the pop up thunderstorms this week. Not sinking or anything, but don't need rain here. I know that varies in the area, though... some areas missing out on the rain and some getting more than enough.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

66 HR 18Z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif

[MississippiWx]

NWS LCH mentions a flood threat, but doesn't appear to see a tropical development threat out of it.

From the afternoon AFD a few minutes ago:

INTERESTING FEATURE HEADING OUR WAY BY EARLY TO MID OF NEXT WEEK.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ALABAMA WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF T.D.
5 APPEARS THAT IT WILL MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
NORTH GULF COAST REGION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALL MODELS SUGGEST
THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTHWARD. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER
AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM. THIS
SLOW MOVING FEATURE COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA.
HPC FOUR TO FIVE QPF OUTLOOK SUGGEST TOTALS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES IN
SOME AREAS. NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS IS A FEATURE COULD BRING THE AREA
A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT. STAY TUNED.

Yeah, it looks like the Jackson forecast office is the only one that discussed the tropical possibility. I think it's a good call on their part because people need to know that a tropical system could actually form from this and I'm not sure why the other offices aren't advertising the possibly being shown by the models.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

90 HR GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

[Weeks Bay]

Thanks Mississippiwx we will see...

[srainhoutx]

90 HR GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

Slowing down it appears compared to the 12Z.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

18Z always seems to be different. Dont like them!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

102 Hr

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

[KWT]

Looks like the 18z GFS takes this ever so briefly over water then back into land over LA, probably has only 12hrs over water...probably not enough to tempt the NHC but certainly enough some further strengthening and could make things very interesting for LA if it came off...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Slow mover to as it gets into East Texas, flood event!

[Hurricanehink]

If it redeveloped, it would still be TD5, right?

[MississippiWx]

18Z always seems to be different. Dont like them!

You're on the right track...

18z model runs don't have as much information put into them as the 0z, 6z, and 12z. Even the 6z is considered an "off" run. The 0z and 12z runs are always considered the most reliable because they have the most accurate and updated data. However, sometimes, a situation that was occurring earlier in the day could change by later in the day and the 18z run would be the first to pick up on it. That's why we sometimes (not often) see the 0z runs follow the idea of the 18z runs. However, that's not something that happens a lot.

[Wx_Warrior]

Like my earlier post...Even if it's a Low, this could be nasty. I don't want to swim.

[KWT]

Wow the 18z looks like a bad flooding event, the system pretty much sits and only slowly drifts northwards, probably would see alot of flooding.

It certainly could be a nasty event even if it just stays as an inland low.

[MississippiWx]

It actually appears that the center is over water most of the time before heading into Louisiana. It's barely over water, but it's there.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

No where really for it to go once it gets into East Texas. Slow north drift.

[southerngale]

Like my earlier post...Even if it's a Low, this could be nasty. I don't want to swim.

I wanted to swim today, but the thunderstorms ruined that. lol


Anyway, it's starting to look like this could be a real flood threat.

[hurrican19]

Send it to Central TX.. We need some rain again, bad! Would love to turn my sprinkler system off!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Here is part of our afd (Baton Rouge). They are sticking with the euro this go around. Ususally they live by the GFS. Anyway brief comment about weak development but sound much more concerned about flooding. I am sure monday mornings discussion wll be much more detailed. Our weekend outlooks are always short and sweet.

.SHORT TERM...
FORECAST MODELS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT ON TAKING REMNANTS OF TD5
AND UPPER LOW BACK TOWARD THE AREA TRANSITING THE EAST END OF
THE UPPER RIDGE...AND EVENTUALLY MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GFS CONTINUES ITS TREND OF BEING MORE ROBUST
WITH SURFACE DEVELOPMENT. HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER SOLUTION. IN ANY CASE...PLENTY OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PW NEAR 2.5 THROUGH THE
REGION...THUS WOULD EXPECT SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS REGION. HAVE INCLUDED
HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH GROUND
BEING SATURATED FROM MORE RECENT RAINFALL...FLASH FLOOD AND
FLOODING MAY ALSO BE AN ISSUE EARLY IN THE WEEK.