ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MississippiWx]

Looks to me like Mike has finally found his groove. The eye is fully established, and I’m willing to bet the eye wall is completely closed.

[EquusStorm]

I don't think there's been a category four landfall on the panhandle on record, but this certainly could be one to do so. Would be especially bad if it comes ashore while still deepening

[FLpanhandle91]

Looks to me like Mike has finally found his groove. The eye is fully established, and I’m willing to bet the eye wall is completely closed.

Recon looks like theyre going to do a NW to SE pass.

[supercane4867]

The last CAT4 to make landfall in the MS-AL-FL panhandle region was Frederic. 39 years ago.

[bella_may]

Getting some decent gusts at my house already

[TheStormExpert]

The last CAT4 to make landfall in the MS-AL-FL panhandle region was Frederic. 39 years ago.

What about Ivan 2004?

[EquusStorm]

Ivan was a high-end 3, I think operationally a low 4 but lowered slightly

[cycloneye]

Looks to me like Mike has finally found his groove. The eye is fully established, and I’m willing to bet the eye wall is completely closed.

Recon looks like theyre going to do a NW to SE pass.

Plane is acending so the mission is over.

[hurricaneCW]

He looks like a major right now, if trends continue then they'll likely make the upgrade at 5pm.

[Otown_Wx]

Good Afternoon,

Been since Irma last time got on just wanted to ask what conditions do yall expect here in Orlando. Im thinking squally weather with some gusty winds with storms. Would that be safe to say?

[supercane4867]

Eye temp has warmed to positive digits on ADT

[xironman]

Close to a classic CDO now, may have the stadium effect late afternoon

[supercane4867]

The last CAT4 to make landfall in the MS-AL-FL panhandle region was Frederic. 39 years ago.

What about Ivan 2004?

Ivan weakened prior to landfall. 105kt was the landfall intensity

[TheStormExpert]

Ivan was a high-end 3, I think operationally a low 4 but lowered slightly

I could’ve sworn it made landfall as a 130mph Cat.4?

[meriland29]

Eye is clearing and becoming that classic shape..

[supercane4867]

Ivan was a high-end 3, I think operationally a low 4 but lowered slightly

I could’ve sworn it made landfall as a 130mph Cat.4?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092004_Ivan.pdf

[EquusStorm]

Ivan was a high-end 3, I think operationally a low 4 but lowered slightly

I could’ve sworn it made landfall as a 130mph Cat.4?

Pretty sure it did operationally, but was lowered after the fact

[northjaxpro]

Looks to me like Mike has finally found his groove. The eye is fully established, and I’m willing to bet the eye wall is completely closed.

Well the latest VDM from Recon had the eyewall still open on the west quad.

Looking at the most recent satallite visible image, the eyewall looks solidly closed to me too. But, we have to get Recon confirmation to officially acknowledge this.

Michael is looking scarily impressive right now. I am growing more confident with time that Michael very well may achieve Cat 4 status, which is just simply amazing!

Please folks, if you have been told to evacuate by the authorities, PLEASE GET OUT. It is completely not worth risking your life!!

[FLpanhandle91]

NOAA9 recon on the way in.

[psyclone]

Good Afternoon,

Been since Irma last time got on just wanted to ask what conditions do yall expect here in Orlando. Im thinking squally weather with some gusty winds with storms. Would that be safe to say?

Were it the old days folks in Orlando would have no clue about the oceanic tempest passing hundreds of miles to the west. Enjoy the breeze. Any showers could produce some gusty winds but now that Michael has become better developed and more symmetrical the convection that had been persisting well east of the storm has abated. It's a pretty nice day over the peninsula. Even here on the west side...im headed to the beach..