2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[Chris90]

What about 2013?

Both WHEM basins were uneventful but WPAC was fairly active. Remember Typhoon Haiyan occurred in 2013.

Yeah I remember Haiyan but that was later in the year. I don’t recall anything else of significance.

Haiyan dominated the news cycle and tropical discussion for that year, but the WPAC was decently active overall for the season, with 5 total super typhoons. It crammed a lot of its ACE generation into the Sep-Oct-Nov period with a very clear peak. There were a couple big storms before those months, but a majority occurred towards the end of the season. The first 2/3 of the season are noted as being weak, with the last third being the part of the season that knocked it out of the park. I think the way the WPAC came to life towards the end of 2013 was one of the first big indicators of the active state the Pacific basin was headed towards, that culminated in the super niño of 2015.

Another notable storm that year in the Northern Hemisphere was Phailin over in the Northern Indian ocean basin, specifically the Bay of Bengal.

The lack of activity in the Pacific this year coupled with the way systems have been struggling when they do finally occur is one of the big signs to me offering validation to those indicators that the ATL is going to be active. I don't think we've got long to wait until the basin really gets going with the true tropical development. I think a Top 3 most active season is a definite possibility.

[TheStormExpert]

What in 2020 a quiet hurricane season in terms of impacts threats etc finally some good news....or another 2020 bad things yet to come?

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It’s 2020, we’ll likely see something of significance affect land one way or another.

Hopefully everyone is continuing to prepare for this season more so than others with COVID-19 in mind.

[BYG Jacob]

Seems this flavor of the month is Florida's risk. Hint for y'all, its really high.

EDIT: Completely unrelated; KOALA BEAR

[MarioProtVI]

Quite low for July standards especially the Caribbean if this continues till the peak we could be in big trouble, which does align with some of the models.

[captainbarbossa19]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Quite low for July standards especially the Caribbean if this continues till the peak we could be in big trouble, which does align with some of the models.

That is very low shear. In previous years at this time, the Caribbean had generally unfavorable conditions. I don't like seeing the favorable conditions in the Gulf too. Today at my location, it is almost 100 degrees. The strong ridge nearby is causing very hot conditions, but I am concerned that it won't be here if a storm enters the Gulf later this year. I have seen some projections of the ridge shifting to the east coast later this summer. I have seen this happen before (2017 with Harvey).

[Nuno]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Quite low for July standards especially the Caribbean if this continues till the peak we could be in big trouble, which does align with some of the models.

It's wild how favorable the Caribbean is shaping up to be. I would be shocked if there was no major hurricane down there by September.

[NDG]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Quite low for July standards especially the Caribbean if this continues till the peak we could be in big trouble, which does align with some of the models.

This is a very big precursor of what the peak of the season will be like when we look at the shear anomaly over the Caribbean during July.
Below average shear= active rest of the season most likely.
Above average shear= not so active rest of the season most likely.

[psyclone]

Meanwhile...ridging which has stubbornly been to the south is poised to build north and yield a more typical southeast wind direction over florida. The pieces are relentlessly falling into place...and we still have a couple weeks before we even begin to climb the climo ramp.

[CrazyC83]

How does 2020 compare to 2011 at this point in terms of these factors? It seems that those have been comparable in the high number of early weak storms.

[TheStormExpert]

How does 2020 compare to 2011 at this point in terms of these factors? It seems that those have been comparable in the high number of early weak storms.

Conditions seem more favorable than in 2011.

[SFLcane]

New EURO weeklies.. We should start seeing actual tc's in the modeling in time. Very impressive!
 https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1282786630584147969

[Yellow Evan]

What about 2013?

Both WHEM basins were uneventful but WPAC was fairly active. Remember Typhoon Haiyan occurred in 2013.

Yeah I remember Haiyan but that was later in the year. I don’t recall anything else of significance.

2013 in the WPAC had one of the more memorable second halfs of the seasons, which more than made up for the lackluster start.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the NAO shows no sign of going positive, if anything it looks to stay the same or even is tending more negative. The more negative, the more chances storms would recurve possibly threatening Bermuda:

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like the NAO shows no sign of going positive, if anything it looks to stay the same or even is tending more negative. The more negative, the more chances storms would recurve possibly threatening Bermuda:

https://i.postimg.cc/dQxx21BM/nao-sprd2.gif

This can’t be used as a seasonal indicator though...

[DioBrando]

does this mean the ocean would be roasty toasty by the time the dust settles down and the shear relaxes?

[WeatherEmperor]

Looks like the NAO shows no sign of going positive, if anything it looks to stay the same or even is tending more negative. The more negative, the more chances storms would recurve possibly threatening Bermuda:

[i.postimg.cc/dQxx21BM/nao-sprd2.gif[/img]

A negative NAO can be bad for Florida in Aug/Sept. Charley 2004 and Ernesto 2006 were pulled north out of the Caribbean into Florida due to stronger troughs because of negative NAO's. Some people argue that if Ernesto spent 24 hours longer over water, South Florida would have been hit by a Hurricane instead of a weak TS. With the Caribbean forecast to be much more favorable this year, I fear a negative NAO even more than a positive NAO living in South Florida. Dont forget October especially with cool neutral and possibly weak La Nina making the Caribbean a potential hot spot and Florida should always watch out for those conditions


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[storminabox]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Quite low for July standards especially the Caribbean if this continues till the peak we could be in big trouble, which does align with some of the models.

That is very low shear. In previous years at this time, the Caribbean had generally unfavorable conditions. I don't like seeing the favorable conditions in the Gulf too. Today at my location, it is almost 100 degrees. The strong ridge nearby is causing very hot conditions, but I am concerned that it won't be here if a storm enters the Gulf later this year. I have seen some projections of the ridge shifting to the east coast later this summer. I have seen this happen before (2017 with Harvey).

If the Caribbean has favorable conditions, we are in trouble considering the boiling water temps. For the last few years, the Caribbean has generally been pretty unfavorable, but that doesn’t seem to be the case this year.

[Steve]

Looks like the NAO shows no sign of going positive, if anything it looks to stay the same or even is tending more negative. The more negative, the more chances storms would recurve possibly threatening Bermuda:

[i.postimg.cc/dQxx21BM/nao-sprd2.gif[/url]

A negative NAO can be bad for Florida in Aug/Sept. Charley 2004 and Ernesto 2006 were pulled north out of the Caribbean into Florida due to stronger troughs because of negative NAO's. Some people argue that if Ernesto spent 24 hours longer over water, South Florida would have been hit by a Hurricane instead of a weak TS. With the Caribbean forecast to be much more favorable this year, I fear a negative NAO even more than a positive NAO living in South Florida. Dont forget October especially with cool neutral and possibly weak La Nina making the Caribbean a potential hot spot and Florida should always watch out for those conditions


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It's been negative this month, and that isn't surprising. But it's mostly been neutral since mid-April except for that dip in May. Overall it's been slightly negative, but insignificant and more or less of a non-signal. MJO and the water temperature profiles look to me like they will be much more important signals. If, in fact, we get blocking high patterns, the highs are probably in New England, the eastern Great Lakes and south of there. That's actually a worse pattern for a lot of people in the Southeast and Bahamas because you don't have that same recurve potential west of 75W. IDK. I'm not doom and gloomer guy, but...

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... .sprd2.gif

[GCANE]

Rossby waves are starting to pull north for the season.
Two main Anticyclone Rossby Wave Breaks (ARWB) currently in the Atlantic.
Result is that shear is dropping quickly.
SAL just needs to settle down.
Latest wave is riding high, looks like it'll be a sweeper.

[HurricaneEnzo]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Quite low for July standards especially the Caribbean if this continues till the peak we could be in big trouble, which does align with some of the models.

Yeah that's a pretty stark contrast from the 60kts of shear we have become accustomed to in recent years