ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CM2]

Well this should make you think.

[northjaxpro]

Total non-pro opinion but I think this will just skirt the south coast of the D.R. and then cross the eastern side of Cuba.

Good line of thinking here.

[supercane4867]

The real story here only begins post-Hispaniola. Needs that land interaction to split up or kill off the entire southern portion then it can move on.

[SapphireSea]

Things that make you go “hummm”

The towers on WV seem to show shearing and rapid movement if you look closely. The convection is waning fast, any vort is going to want to stay with the better convection to the SW.

[BadLarry95]

When’s the next recon gonna fly?

[Hurricaneman]

When’s the next recon gonna fly?

8pm

[Evenstar]

Since this discussion began on NINE, there has been at least ONE message posted on every page, such as; IT IS ABOUT TO BE NAMED...CENTER IS STARTING TO GET BETTER DEFINED....I SEE THE CENTER NOW...I HAVE THE CENTER AT ?...IT IS ABOUT TO BLOW UP...and a lot of other similar type messages. But yet, there is NOTHING NADA, ZILCH, ZERO! At some point, someone is going to be right. LOL.

Stay tuned folks, it should be interesting TOMORROW!

I am not sure what we are supposed to talk about while we wait for more info, if we can't entertain educated guesses and intelligent conjecture. I know! Let's talk about politics!

[chaser1]

C'mon guys????? What the heck? I go away for just a couple hours and look at what you've done with this disturbance! Convection mostly gone, no dense overcast, no clear-cut COC...... smh

[DestinHurricane]

How long will it take for recon to get there?

[BobHarlem]

This is a decently strong signal (white bit of the system below):


from http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8vor.GIF

[captainbarbossa19]

C'mon guys????? What the heck? I go away for just a couple hours and look at what you've done with this disturbance! Convection mostly gone, no dense overcast, no clear-cut COC...... smh

I was just thinking the same thing. I looked at this last about 3 hours ago and it looks like convection has decreased considerably. However, it's not too unusual considering the time of day.

[NDG]

Buoy 42059 to the W of the low pressure center, reports from the missing data since earlier this morning started coming in, it shows how the winds started changing to the NNW through early afternoon after being from NNE earlier in the morning.

[tropicwatch]

When’s the next recon gonna fly?

8pm

It was suppose to take off about 30 minutes ago. 2300Z

[HurricaneFrances04]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 66.3W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[DestinHurricane]

Probably won't get an upgrade until it's passed the GAs.

[SFLcane]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 66.3W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Slowing down..

[abajan]

Can a pro explain this extract from the discussion for me, please:
More recently, a band has
developed over the southwestern portion of the broad circulation
and it appears that the system may be closer to acquiring a
well-defined center

Are they hinting/suggesting that the "centre" may be forming to the southwest? And what influence will this have on the short-term movement of the system, especially for us in the Central Caribbean?
Thanks

If it's further south, then that means the general path of the storm will also be further south, though because it's a big storm it isn't gonna rapidly intensify anytime soon. We don't really know where the storm is going because the models are initializing it about 70-80 miles north of where it probably actually is. Though worse case you end up with some sloppy tropical storm weather. I don't think there is any doubt the greater Antilles are not gonna receive anything more than a TS at worse. The main concern for a hurricane in any capacity is mainly the Bahamas and the US.

Yeah, and a bunch of torrential rainfall. Let's not forget that little detail, shall we.

[chaser1]

C'mon guys????? What the heck? I go away for just a couple hours and look at what you've done with this disturbance! Convection mostly gone, no dense overcast, no clear-cut COC...... smh

I was just thinking the same thing. I looked at this last about 3 hours ago and it looks like convection has decreased considerably. However, it's not too unusual considering the time of day.

Well to be honest, it's not altogether unusual considering that we're dealing with 92L

I'm thinking it's about time to put out an APB for any one of our old forum historical data specialists. What is the S2K record for number of "Potential Tropical Cyclone" Discussion Pages for a system that was never named? Larry, Andrew, Steve.... anyone lol?

[Hammy]

Probably won't get an upgrade until it's passed the GAs.

Won't likely be anything left, I'm not buying the models given they showed the same sort of intensification with other weaker storms in this location and it doesn't happen.

[STRiZZY]

Well this should make you think.
https://imgur.com/2MiHFHc

Can you link me to this?