ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

When was the last time a hurricane went DIRECTLY over New Orleans. I know there have been significant impacts with near misses over the years.

[Jr0d]

You hit it on the head Steve. I am in cut off about 30 miles north of Port Fourchon where they were predicting land fall. I think the landfall moved a bit west though to between Fourchon and dularge area. I’m thinking between Fourchon and Morgan city is in play. I just hope we get the eastern side because if it comes in over or just west of us NOLA will catch the eastern eye wall maybe.



No one listen to me I am just a long time tropical weather buff. I have no training in meteorology at all!!

While not a major storm, the windfield is large. You may very well have worse conditions and higher surge being east of the center than you would taking a 'direct' hit.

My projection is the storm surge may catch many off guard given how big the windfield is.

[GCANE]

Hearing reports of buoys being knocked out

[xironman]

Inhibiting factors as well as steering can definitely be observed approaching from the west. Big question...can this have an effect on Zeta continuing to strengthen? http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

You may be discounting the effects of baroclinic enhancement. There is a clash of air masses, and that typically that enhances extra-tropical storms. The question is does Zeta degrade from that or enhance. Normally an east coast thing, but the dynamics are not far off.

[Steve]

Looking at the water vapor loop , You can see the trough digging into the Gulf now. Just a few more hours and the turn will start to the NNE and land fall somewhere around Biloxi or just east of there. IMHO

It’s already got an eastern component. You don’t want to put money on that prediction unless you can get odds too good to pass up - like 100:1.

Of Coarse the tip of Grand Isle will be first landfall but second in the area of Gulfport to Biloxi . I wonder if Vegas would take the bet .

Haha. For sure. I haven’t been convinced one way or the other on MS. Models were pretty split in taking this either to the Hancock/Harrison Co Coasts or just moving it up through Slidell/Pearl River. I still can’t make up my mind on it though I do figure Hancock/Harrison/Jackson and even Mobile Counties are going to get a solid lick from Zeta.

[supercane4867]

When was the last time a hurricane went DIRECTLY over New Orleans. I know there have been significant impacts with near misses over the years.

Isaac 2012 I believe

[Steve]

When was the last time a hurricane went DIRECTLY over New Orleans. I know there have been significant impacts with near misses over the years.

Memory is mostly shot but probably Florence 1988. Bill in 2003 was a TS. Isaac ‘12 was close but passed south of the city. Same with Betsy in 65.

[Hurricane Mike]

Video Update on Zeta
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mz3WmP-IzLk

[wxman57]

This is not a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds do not cover a large area, and are mostly east of the center (out to 30 miles or so). Tropical storm-force wind radii are just about average for an Atlantic hurricane. This is not Katrina. It will not produce a surge that overtops the levees in New Orleans. I think the NHC is being very generous with that 80 kt (90 mph) wind in their latest advisory. Probably closer to 75 kts, but they may be going 80 kts because they expect a little strengthening prior to landfall (baroclinic enhancement, which has been mentioned).

[wx98]

When was the last time a hurricane went DIRECTLY over New Orleans. I know there have been significant impacts with near misses over the years.

Memory is mostly shot but probably Florence 1988. Bill in 2003 was a TS. Isaac ‘12 was close but passed south of the city. Same with Betsy in 65.

Thank you! I knew Isaac went south because it was out near Morgan City I think. Betsy I wasn’t sure about.

[wxman57]

When was the last time a hurricane went DIRECTLY over New Orleans. I know there have been significant impacts with near misses over the years.

Memory is mostly shot but probably Florence 1988. Bill in 2003 was a TS. Isaac ‘12 was close but passed south of the city. Same with Betsy in 65.

Betsy was much larger, passed well south, and came from the SE vs. SW. If you wanted to pick a "good" direction for a hurricane to hit New Orleans surge-wise, it's from the SW.

[pcolaman]

It’s already got an eastern component. You don’t want to put money on that prediction unless you can get odds too good to pass up - like 100:1.

Of Coarse the tip of Grand Isle will be first landfall but second in the area of Gulfport to Biloxi . I wonder if Vegas would take the bet .

Haha. For sure. I haven’t been convinced one way or the other on MS. Models were pretty split in taking this either to the Hancock/Harrison Co Coasts or just moving it up through Slidell/Pearl River. I still can’t make hL my mind on it though I do figure Hancock/Harrison/Jackson and even Mobile Counties are going to get a solid lick from Zeta.

I just noticed that the push is starting to happen from the west now. The further west the front pushes will cause Zeta to go more east and north at a faster pace. East side will def. be problematic for points to the east. Im no pro by any means but after watching for 20 yrs plus , I just observe the over all picture. I hope everyone is safe and prepared for the storm. If winds are 100 at landfall and moving at 25 to 30 mph , better figure to add those winds on top of forecasted winds !!

[Iceresistance]

NHC still at 90 mph because of flight level winds of 89 knots.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Of Coarse the tip of Grand Isle will be first landfall but second in the area of Gulfport to Biloxi . I wonder if Vegas would take the bet .

Haha. For sure. I haven’t been convinced one way or the other on MS. Models were pretty split in taking this either to the Hancock/Harrison Co Coasts or just moving it up through Slidell/Pearl River. I still can’t make hL my mind on it though I do figure Hancock/Harrison/Jackson and even Mobile Counties are going to get a solid lick from Zeta.

I just noticed that the push is starting to happen from the west now. The further west the front pushes will cause Zeta to go more east and north at a faster pace. East side will def. be problematic for points to the east. Im no pro by any means but after watching for 20 yrs plus , I just observe the over all picture. I hope everyone is safe and prepared for the storm. If winds are 100 at landfall and moving at 25 to 30 mph , better figure to add those winds on top of forecasted winds !!

Watching closely in in Lower Bama for sure!

[bella_may]

Hurricane warnings have been extended inland in MS

[tolakram]

Coming into radar view. saved loop

[sponger]

Five hits in one year is simply amazing. My question is do Grand Solar Miniums enhance hurricane activity? It's been 150 years and the technology was not quite as good as today. We will be in this for another 35 years so I hope someone is studying the issue because if they do enhance, it will be another weather issue to add on to the rest of the misery. What a season regardless! Best of luck LA and points north, going to be a pretty decent punch, but also quite manageable if you are prepared.

[tailgater]

Big drop in eye humidity. Now 59%
SW eyewall also drying out. Big drop in humidity as well.
NE eyewall saturated.

Dry air getting into the core now.

I think it sucked some dry air in this morning but seems to be back on track which isn’t good. Turn baby turn, selfish I know.

[MidnightRain]

This is not a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds do not cover a large area, and are mostly east of the center (out to 30 miles or so). Tropical storm-force wind radii are just about average for an Atlantic hurricane. This is not Katrina. It will not produce a surge that overtops the levees in New Orleans. I think the NHC is being very generous with that 80 kt (90 mph) wind in their latest advisory. Probably closer to 75 kts, but they may be going 80 kts because they expect a little strengthening prior to landfall (baroclinic enhancement, which has been mentioned).

Who said this was a large hurricane? Who compared this to Katrina? Also, your condescending comments towards the NHC are getting old. And it’s especially dangerous in the midst of a landfall.

[hurricanehunter69]

The rap around process with a cleared out eye is nearly complete. The satellite presentation we are likely to observe in about two hours is usually indicative of a major hurricane.....? https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=r ... =undefined