ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WalterWhite]

AL, 13, 2023091012, , BEST, 0, 215N, 608W, 95, 956, HU

It appears as if Lee is starting to intensify again.

[Iceresistance]

What did I miss last night?

[REDHurricane]

Every time it looks like Lee might be starting to restrengthen, the shear shifts back south right into the storm's center. There may be a window of opportunity for re-intensification into a cat 4 (cat 5 very unlikely at this point) starting this afternoon/evening through Tuesday night before Lee makes its turn northward, but none of that will happen unless the shear environment improves quickly

[ScottNAtlanta]

Got some good convection wrapping around the center this morning

[aspen]

AL, 13, 2023091012, , BEST, 0, 215N, 608W, 95, 956, HU

It appears as if Lee is starting to intensify again.

Give it 3 hours and it’ll be struggling with shear again.

[WalterWhite]

AL, 13, 2023091012, , BEST, 0, 215N, 608W, 95, 956, HU

It appears as if Lee is starting to intensify again.

Give it 3 hours and it’ll be struggling with shear again.

Why is Lee still struggling with shear?

[cheezyWXguy]

Anyone have an explanation for why the upper level anticyclone dissociated from the center of Lee in the first place? I’ve been struggling to pick out other upper level features that would have resulted in this amount of displacement.

[Sciencerocks]

[dukeblue219]

Hello again Mr. Eye, will you be staying this time?

[WalterWhite]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/1918/hs8KZD.gif

An eye appears to be forming again.

[aspen]

It appears as if Lee is starting to intensify again.

Give it 3 hours and it’ll be struggling with shear again.

Why is Lee still struggling with shear?

I believe it’s been constantly outrunning that ULAC, so instead of providing excellent ventilation like the models said and how it was on the day of its peak, it keeps disrupting the core.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Eye is clearing out. I believe this will be ramping up in short order.

[cheezyWXguy]

Eye is clearing out. I believe this will be ramping up in short order.

Agreed. Towers popping up in all quadrants of the eyewall now, which is something that couldn’t be said yesterday or Friday night. If shear holds off should at least see some steady reintensification

[GCANE]

Anyone have an explanation for why the upper level anticyclone dissociated from the center of Lee in the first place? I’ve been struggling to pick out other upper level features that would have resulted in this amount of displacement.

That has always been a mystery for me for many years. Still is.
I look at all sorts of UL patterns and indicators and still can't find anything that I can correlate.
Maybe has to do with something in the stratosphere.
One thing though, when it does dissociate, the effect of shear on a TC is consistent.

[Landy]

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/1148622547890483251/1150442713741803540/goes16_ir_meso1_17.gif

Outflow certainly looks good

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

NHC 11am shifts closer to Bermuda.

[Landy]

Safe to say the multi-day slump is over.

[hipshot]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/1148622547890483251/1150442713741803540/goes16_ir_meso1_17.gif

Outflow certainly looks good

Looks like that dark grey area is filling around the core too.

[Emmett_Brown]

Lee does indeed look more together today. Assuming he can continue to fight off the shear and clear out and eye, the next few days should provide for some excellent wobble watching as he makes the turn N. Let the ACE roll in!