Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[3ABirdMan]

Surface observations say this low in the NE GOM isn't only at the upper levels... getting some heavy rain with occasional lightning.

So the ULL is starting to "drill down" to the lower levels and gather thermal energy? Is that a sign of conversion to a warm core?

[Normandy]

Yes, it appears the ULL and the southern surface low are somewhat detaching. Nevertheless, the southern low hasn't really organized further. Actually, it really appears there are two lows like WxMan57 posted, with the southern one being a bit deeper (lower pressures). The ULL is attached to the northern surface feature.

[hurricanetrack]

Can it get any more complicated than this season? Well, at least some much needed rain will fall in some places. Always a good thing when tropical/sub-tropical/half-tropical/weather disturbances can bring rain without the 'cane.

[dixiebreeze]

The TDS alert was removed from the NHC site.

[robbielyn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html I don't know this maybe the new center forming.

[tailgater]

Take a look at this radar and uncheck the Topo box at the bottom left.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... W&loop=yes
There's alot more convection near the center wsw of Tampa than there was 3 hours ago, also might be drifting northward.

[greg_kfdm_tv]

Looking at radar out of Tampa, it is becoming obvious that the northern low is taking over with showers moving northeastward through the old low further south.

I would place the new developing center near 27.9 north and 84.5 west with a slow motion to the west-northwest.

It looks like this will be the feature to track.

[HURAKAN]

Is this "thing" even moving? If so it seems slow right now.

Almost stationary at the moment. It should move northwestward over the next few days.

[HURAKAN]

890
ABNT20 KNHC 210208
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN MEANDERING
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT 115 MILES WEST
OF TAMPA FLORIDA. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING BUT BANDS OF HEAVY SQUALLS ARE FORMING TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND ARE ALREADY AFFECTING COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES
SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE PROMPTLY REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[jenmrk]

Is this "thing" even moving? If so it seems slow right now.

Almost stationary at the moment. It should move northwestward over the next few days.

Was it expected to remain stationary like this?

[vaffie]

It appears that there may be a third low forming two hundred miles to the west of the southern low where moderate convection is occurring right now--at around 26.5N, 86.5W. Pressures here are quite low too. The nearest buoy (42003) to it's south is reporting a 19 knot west wind and 1007 mb.

21/01 42003 25.7 -85.7 27.2 23.9 290 19 G 23 310 23 1007.0 0.0 30.0 2.0 5 42003

[HURAKAN]

Is this "thing" even moving? If so it seems slow right now.

Almost stationary at the moment. It should move northwestward over the next few days.

Was it expected to remain stationary like this?

The steering currents are very weak and stationary or very slow movement should be expected.

[punkyg]

>>Hi guys i have not checked on 93L all day so fill me in
oh also why did yall stop talking?

You can't possibly be serious.

Steve

He probably meant because from 7:15 pm - 7:49 pm there were no new posts.

Whats up with you guys assuming i'm a dude?
any ways i have to say 93L looks horrible.
we gonna have to wait til morning to see if it gets better organized.

[americanrebel]

I was thinking the same thing that I was seeing on radar. The system that is SW of the ULL that is moving around a W to WNW at a very slow pace might be the new center of this system. If so looks like Ms/LA line will be a no go. But TX/LA line is looking a lot better. Now the ULL is moving N maybe NNE towards Tallahassee. So the ULL is separating from the 1 or 2 LLC in the Gulf.

[Stormcenter]

I was thinking the same thing that I was seeing on radar. The system that is SW of the ULL that is moving around a W to WNW at a very slow pace might be the new center of this system. If so looks like Ms/LA line will be a no go. But TX/LA line is looking a lot better. Now the ULL is moving N maybe NNE towards Tallahassee. So the ULL is separating from the 1 or 2 LLC in the Gulf.

Now this just getting rediculous folks. How many lows are there now?

[americanrebel]

WXMAN57, I see you are on here, what are your thoughts on this possible scenario?

[Javlin]

Quote Canetracker:Steve Lyons just agreed with you and called this Northern Low the ULL.

Tks appreciate the info and feedback just trying to keep track.Kevin

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



80 pages later and 93L still looks like this!!!

[jasons2k]

I've thrown-up my hands. I don't know what to think anymore....this whole system has me baffled. I thought I had a good handle on this yesterday morning when I first floated the theory that over a couple of days the ULL would transition to a warm core tropical low. Since then, it seems like nothing but chaos has ensued, especially this evening. Now some (Dr. Lyons) are saying the ULL has detached and is moving north?? In the GOM?? Not that I disagree...but what next?? I thought I had seen it all. And how many lows is this thing going to generate before it finally, if ever, stacks?? I have come SO close to throwing in the towel on this, declaring it dead, and moving on. But something tells me I need to keep watching, even if it turns to be the bust of '07...just like Chris last year.

[HURAKAN]

20/2332 UTC 27.6N 85.0W TOO WEAK 93L -- Atlantic Ocean