Disturbance off NE Florida (Now invest 96L)

[Ivanhater]

I could not find any surface pressure drops yet, but these circulations that form on the end of fronts can take a while to work their way to the surface.

The deep convection is new, but with the deep convection in place, pressure should be lowering tonight...

[NDG]

I have been watching a MLC that started around 27N & 86W move eastward during the time, at the same time a surface low pressure area start just near the coast of Apalachee Bay and work itself southward during the day, it appears it is has moved southward presently W or WS of Tampa-St Pete area, a bit elonagated right now N-S, but getting better defined, getting closer to the MLC from earlier today. With a UL ridge sitting right on top, conditions are more than right for it to develop into a TD, the only problem right now is proximity to the coast, but with a surface & ML ridge pushing into FL in a couple of days a NW movent away from the coast should start sometime tomorrow afternoon, the more south it pushes tonight, the better chance it will be over open waters tomorrow night and Thursday.

[Cyclone1]

Raining on/off here in Polk.

[Noles2006]

Quite an interesting development throughout the afternoon/evening hours...

I'd like to hear from a pro on this before I start getting too excited. Like I said earlier, I'm heading to PCB this weekend and I'd like to know whether or not it'd be worth it to bring the camcorder and laptop, lol.

[NDG]

00z NAM deepens the low further than earlier runs. It places a low center a bit further south as well.

[HURAKAN]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The rainbands and cloud bands cover a large area all the way to SE FL and
all the peninsula.

[wx247]

Maybe we could edit the thread title to describe what is being discussed. I had been overlooking this for part of the day because of the Joe Bastardi reference! LOL

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Really looks like something is trying hard to organize just SW of FL;
don't be surprised if this picks up the winds and sends heavy rains with
squalls tomorrow and tonight. Already a squall blowing through Saint
Petersburg/Clearwater airport Produced E 25 Gust 37 mph, now the
wind is calmer, until the next squall. The complex is looking symmetrical
and I see development taking place. At the very least a tropical depression
within 24-30 hours, and possibly a tropical storm over those warm waters,
low shear, upper level ridge by day 3 (Thursday).

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 11&loop=no

[Bertha08]

I agree tampa, although I did notice that it looks a bit worse on radar than it did before.

[weatherSnoop]

I know radar it not the best, but being so close: It appears to me, the storms are trying to circulate more south and west. I am guessing maybe 50-100 miles west of North Port/Venice area. I am a little tired and wondered if anyone else is seeing something similar

[fci]

Looks a lot better than 94L!!!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Maybe we could edit the thread title to describe what is being discussed. I had been overlooking this for part of the day because of the Joe Bastardi reference! LOL

I just started this thread because a couple of days ago JB said this was the place to look. At 10pm, he repeated idea of a not too strong system, more rain than wind, that drifts North or Northwest and rains in Florida Panhandles and SE US. No panic needed.

[tpr1967]

Weathersnoop i am seeing the same thing. But i my be tired to LOL.

[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye on the trough folks. Persistance is the key. Notice the Upper Level feature near LA Coast...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[Aric Dunn]

its sitting under a very good upper environment right now

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

0 to 5 knot shear over the area, SSTs 87+F, that is quite a recipe with the
added moisture. I am watching this very, very closely.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is starting to get the "look" of a tropical system. With so much persistence already, and the fact that the center seems to be pretty far offshore now, I think the chances are probably pretty high that this will become TD#3 and perhaps Cristobal during the day tomorrow...

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... W&loop=yes

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am VERY surprised that this is not yet an invest.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

***NOT OFFICIAL****


With that symmetry and convection, I expect Tropical Storm Cristobal
in 1-2 days, but with the SSTs over 87 F and the environment very
favorable, it could form much faster- Like Humberto or Lorenzo,
and the ridge will push it NW towards the Florida Panhandle by
Thursday/Friday, but until then squalls will slam the peninsula.
I expect a tropical storm at the very least from this in 24-36 hours.
Perhaps a strong tropical storm in 3 days.