H Dolly Recon Discussion Thread

[weatherguru18]

I have to commend Bill Read and his team. They do great work. This invest has been most interesting and frustrating for me. There have been times that I thought for sure this thing should be upgraded. Yet, I was proven wrong with the first recon flight. I'm glad that they are making sure this is in fact a system rather than calling just any cloud mass a storm, which may or may not have skewed the numbers.

94 L just vomited a huge outflow boundary out the north side. That is not a sign of a developing system. Looking at the Quikscat, there does appear to be a broad cirrculation, but most of the stronger winds are on the north side, as recon has shown. Regaurdless of development, it is still there. It still poses a possible threat to somebody down the line. We need to treat this as if it were a depression or storm. As soon as we turn our attention...BAM. IMO only.

[wxman57]

Just another broad, weak low center. No TD:

URNT11 KNHC 172218
97779 22144 50133 67508 04200 99005 22219 /0009
49905
RMK AF309 02AAA INVEST OB 10
EST BROAD LOW CENTER 13DEG 27MIN NORTH AND 67DEG 57MIN WEST EXTRAPOLATED SLP 1009

[Ivanhater]

Just another broad, weak low center. No TD:

URNT11 KNHC 172218
97779 22144 50133 67508 04200 99005 22219 /0009
49905
RMK AF309 02AAA INVEST OB 10
EST BROAD LOW CENTER 13DEG 27MIN NORTH AND 67DEG 57MIN WEST EXTRAPOLATED SLP 1009

Well it has been holding together just enough(just below td status) with a LLC and convection, to really take advantage once in the Western Caribbean, where conditions (per models), look good.dont you think? I believe you said it would have another shot once in the Western Caribbean yesterday...

[cycloneye]

Plane acending.Mission is over.

[cycloneye]

A reminder about the next mission that will depart from St Croix at 10:45 AM EDT:

A. 18/1800Z
B. AFXXX 04AAA CYCLONE
C. 18/1445Z
D. 13.5N 73.0W
E. 18/1700Z TO 18/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not 94L related, but it seemed a good place...

There are no plans to send a plane into that region today, as highest winds are currently 15 to 20 mph and there are no signs of it developing any tropical characteristics.

Regards,

Dennis Feltgen
Public Affairs Officer
Meteorologist
National Hurricane Center
Miami, Florida

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
> I see yesterday's POD didn't see a mission into the system off the SE
> Coast until tomorrow. However, seeing that something seems to be
> brewing, which may indeed threaten the US coast this weekend, do you
> think we'll get a resources permitting invest into 96L today?
>
>
>
> Edward M. Mahmoud
> Production Engineer
> EXXXXX Operating Company
> 713 953-xxxx
> Ed_Mahmoud@EXXXX.net

Bummer

[MiamiensisWx]

Takeoff will occur within the next fifteen minutes.

[KWT]

Yep what will recon find I wonder, a closed low or just an open wave, thats the big question!

[cycloneye]

Plane is now in the air.Lets see what they find.

[KWT]

Yep how long is it going to take to get recon into 94L by the way?

[cycloneye]

Yep how long is it going to take to get recon into 94L by the way?

Thery may getting close to the low around 1:00-1:30 PM EDT.

[KWT]

Ah ok shame I've got work about then so I'm going to miss most of the recon, may get in just to see the last few sets of obs come through.

[cycloneye]

Pretty strong winds in past set and its still far from the center.

[cycloneye]

Plane decending,Now the important part starts.

[cycloneye]

Plenty of missions ahead including the upper air gulfstream jet.

SUSPECT AREA...(CARIBBEAN SEA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 19/1800Z
B. AFXXX 05AAA CYCLONE
C. 19/1345Z
D. 16.1N 78.9W
E. 19/1700Z TO 19/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 20/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 06AAA CYCLONE
C. 20/0115Z
D. 17.2N 81.6W
E. 20/0500Z TO 20/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

4. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES.
B. POSSIBLE G-IV MISSION FOR 21/0000Z.

[RL3AO]

Don't they normally fly at around 300m in altitude for invests? They are flying around 150m today.

[drezee]

Based on the recon, any area of low pressure is nowhere near the convection. This thing is still quite poorly organized.

[sealbach]

i thought it was low too...pressure readings around 991 mb.

[RL3AO]

i thought it was low too...pressure readings around 991 mb.

Thats the air pressure at flight level, not at the surface. Surface is showing about 1009mb.

[sealbach]

i knew the reading was at 500 ft, but i didn't think the difference would be as much as 18 mb