SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

[Stormcenter]

Remember 99% of winter weather events in the "south" are never predicted by the NWS or shown by the models until a day or two out if then. I believe we are too far out to make a call either way on this upcoming major cold weather outbreak.
JMHO

WAKE UP CAJUNS! Have you seen the long term forcast projected for the end of the week? We are not equipped to handle 18 degree temperatures with daytime highs in the 20's. Remember 1994? Get your fuel, propane, fire wood and generators ready, all of the laundry done daily, as well as ice chests ready and start preparing meals ahead of time that can just be "heat and eat" type meals. Although our planting season is only a couple of weeks away be sure to cover your trees and gardens and make arrangements for your pets. Go back and double check any and all pipes to make sure that the insulation hasn't been taken off or slid down exposing any areas to the hard freeze. Oh, and be sure to check the anti-freeze in your vehicles. Remember that our anti-freeze is generally for above freezing temps so you may have to add an anti-freeze designed for below freezing temps. Trust me, it's better to be safe than sorry. We lost plants, had no utilities or water along with a broken radiator and a busted windshield from a falling limb of ice because we did not prepare in 1994. I don't want anyone else to go through this horrible experience or expense if at all possible. Tomorrow and Sunday should be decent enough to get some of these tasks done so utilitize your time wisely.

I think that's an overreaction. I could see maybe low 20's for lows and upper 30's for highs at the absolute worst and it doesn't look like there be much if any precip around.

Also: The 12z models are not shoving the coldest air into TX/LA, it's much further east, so I dunno if you'll even see what I said above.

[Jagno]

Thanks for your opinions Stormcenter and Brent. I do hope that you are right but I won't be the one to find out the hard way. However, I'm fairly certain that you are incorrect to say that the NWS fails to accurately forecast our winter weather events 99% of the time. The last several freezes as well as snowfalls that we've seen were in fact in the weather forecasts for my area. I'm sorry your confidence in the NWS is so low.

This morning I had enough time to till another garden, pressure wash my patio as well as some outdoor furniture and clean out my fish pond before the rain hit around noon. I came in and took a shower and in less than an hour it had stopped raining and turned much cooler. So here we go again with the A/C and heater both being utilized in the same day.

[PTrackerLA]

Interesting discussion from NWS New Orleans. Are some flakes possible this week?


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
323 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS FROM
HUDSON BAY TO MISSOURI TO EAST TEXAS. AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WAS
LOCATED OVER MONTANA/WYOMING STATES. IN ADDITION...A FAST-MOVING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS OVER NORTHWEST GULF TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

SURFACE MAP SHOWED A BROAD 1027MB HIGH OVER TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A DRY FORECAST USUALLY EQUATES TO QUIET TIME.
HOWEVER...THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST
LOWERING THICKNESS VALUES MORE. FOR 1000 TO 700MB...A STARTING
THICKNESS VALUE AROUND 2950M WILL START DECREASING MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE DRY FRONT...ACCORDING TO ECMWF AND GFS. THE DIGGING OF
THE SHORT WAVE WILL HELP SHARPENED THE MAIN TROUGH AS THE TROUGH AXIS
TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY. EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT WINDS ACROSS LAND AND WATER TUESDAY. ON A SIDE
NOTE...MODEL SOUNDING SHOWED AMBIENT PROFILE BELOW FREEZING ON TUESDAY.
SLIM CHANCE OF THE WHITE STUFF AS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PRESENT
FROM SURFACE TO 500MB AND PRECIP WATER VALUE WILL BE LESS THAN 0.2
INCH. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH THICKNESS VALUES DIPPING TO 2850M BY TUESDAY EVENING. MCCOMB
HAS EXPERIENCED A FREEZE JANUARY 1ST. HOWEVER...BATON ROUGE LAST
FREEZE WAS DECEMBER 12TH...SLIDELL AROUND DECEMBER 22ND...GULFPORT
AROUND DECEMBER 22ND AND NEAR FREEZE AT MOSIANT ON DECEMBER
12TH. WHILE A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FREEZE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...FLORIDA AND RIVER PARISHES.
IN ADDITION...A FREEZE MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NEW ORLEANS
METRO AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL FORECAST 34F FOR NEW ORLEANS
FOR NOW AND WATCH THE MODEL TRENDS LEADING UP TO WEDNESDAY. SINCE
A FREEZE OCCURRED AROUND 10 DAYS AGO AT MCCOMB...WILL HANDLE THIS
EVENT WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT COVERING FREEZING TEMPS FOR
THE WEEK. THE THIRD INSTALLMENT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DEEPENS THE MAIN TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE ASSOCIATED HIGH 1048MB
IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FRIDAY. DID NOT HIT TEMPS AS HARD OR AS LOW AS WE THINK MAY
OCCUR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. A HARD FREEZE FOR NORTH HALF OF
FORECAST ZONES AND FREEZE FOR THE SOUTH HALF ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK WAVE MAY PRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE AREA NEXT SUNDAY. 18

&&

[jinftl]

I think you may be right...this may be at least a perspective to keep in mind when models 1-2 weeks out show snow in the south.

I would be interested to know:

1. How many times it has actually snowed in places like New Orleans and Houston when forecasts 7-days out and 3-days out have shown it?
2. How many times hasn't it snow when it was forecast in those cities 7-days and 3-days out?
3. How many times it has snowed in Houston or New Orleans when there was no forecast for it 7-days or 3-days out.

I would guess that #3 is the biggest of the options. Something to think about at least.....it can snow in those places, but forecasts for it are particularly tricky up until the day or 2 before....if that much (often it is when it is actually happening that day).

Remember 99% of winter weather events in the "south" are never predicted by the NWS or shown by the models until a day or two out if then. I believe we are too far out to make a call either way on this upcoming major cold weather outbreak.
JMHO

[southerngale]

I know things can change, but we've had many colder mornings and lower daytime highs this season so far than anything the NWS is currently predicting for later this week. They don't usually jump on things very quickly though, so maybe that will change, but as for now, looks like all the talk and hype of late (from various threads, places) is much ado about nothing. At least for this area. We'll see, though. If there's any chance of snow, bring it on!

[jinftl]

What are they not 'jumping on'? There is pretty much agreement that colder weather is on tap for esp the eastern half of the nation. There is, as always, some model disagreement, but the NWS offices do recognize that and mention it. Jumping on any one model run 7 days out or more is a crap shoot.

Latest NWS Dallas discussion excerpt...

FOR THE SPECIFICS IN NORTH TEXAS...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
ECMWF REGARDING ALL ASPECTS OF THE LATE WEEK FORECAST. THE GFS
IS AGAIN TOO WARM WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES GIVEN THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS IN CANADA. MODELS ALSO ARE USUALLY TOO SLOW
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR AND TOO FAST TO MODIFY IT. WILL
SHOW FRONT ARRIVING WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THIS REASON. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE CHILLY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW INCREASING 850 MB MOISTURE FROM SW
TO NE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS PROBABLY
INSUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CLOUD COVER IS A GOOD BET.
CLOUDS/MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A FLOOR FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...AND
THEREFORE LOW TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING WILL ONLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. WARM UP INTO THE 50S WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
AGAIN DID NOT GO AS WARM AS GUIDANCE.

I know things can change, but we've had many colder mornings and lower daytime highs this season so far than anything the NWS is currently predicting for later this week. They don't usually jump on things very quickly though, so maybe that will change, but as for now, looks like all the talk and hype of late (from various threads, places) is much ado about nothing. At least for this area. We'll see, though. If there's any chance of snow, bring it on!

[southerngale]

What are they not 'jumping on'? There is pretty much agreement that colder weather is on tap for esp the eastern half of the nation. There is, as always, some model disagreement, but the NWS offices do recognize that and mention it. Jumping on any one model run 7 days out or more is a crap shoot.

Latest NWS Dallas discussion excerpt...

FOR THE SPECIFICS IN NORTH TEXAS...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
ECMWF REGARDING ALL ASPECTS OF THE LATE WEEK FORECAST. THE GFS
IS AGAIN TOO WARM WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES GIVEN THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS IN CANADA. MODELS ALSO ARE USUALLY TOO SLOW
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR AND TOO FAST TO MODIFY IT. WILL
SHOW FRONT ARRIVING WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THIS REASON. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE CHILLY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW INCREASING 850 MB MOISTURE FROM SW
TO NE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS PROBABLY
INSUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CLOUD COVER IS A GOOD BET.
CLOUDS/MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A FLOOR FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...AND
THEREFORE LOW TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING WILL ONLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. WARM UP INTO THE 50S WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
AGAIN DID NOT GO AS WARM AS GUIDANCE.

I know things can change, but we've had many colder mornings and lower daytime highs this season so far than anything the NWS is currently predicting for later this week. They don't usually jump on things very quickly though, so maybe that will change, but as for now, looks like all the talk and hype of late (from various threads, places) is much ado about nothing. At least for this area. We'll see, though. If there's any chance of snow, bring it on!

I didn't say that they weren't jumping on anything, specifically. And I was talking about my local NWS office, not Dallas NWS, so I don't know why you're quoting them. Also, I'm not talking about one model run of anything, so not sure why you said that, either. Plus, I was saying that I didn't think it would be any big deal. Our high today was lower than, or just as low as, what is forecast for later this week. I was saying that if and when we do have unusual weather events, very cold periods, etc., the incredible snow event last month, for example, I usually know it's possible before I read about it from the NWS. The models, patterns, etc. are discussed all over the board before I see it there. They're good guys, just don't seem to jump on things quickly, plus we discuss the models and patterns more in depth on here than what the public will see there. Some mets still think Texas will get more than just a glancing blow (and I'm in extreme SE TX, so I suppose that could mean a better shot here than some parts of TX), so I was just saying that IF it will get a lot colder than currently forecast, my local NWS isn't often one to predict that sort of thing very early. I see other NWS offices discussing the potential for certain events well before mine does. Maybe not every single time, but generally speaking. That's what I was saying.

[srainhoutx]

HGX Update tonight...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
856 PM CST MON JAN 12 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PLOW SOUTHWARD AND STRETCHES FROM
PARIS TO WACO TX. RADIATIONAL COOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS OVER SE TX HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY. IN FACT...TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE ACTUALLY
LOWER THAN TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
HAVE ALLOWED FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPS WARMER BEHIND THE
FRONT MAINLY IN THE 50S. TEMPS FURTHER BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
COLDER AND THE COLD AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE SE TX MAINLY
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SOME CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS WELL WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPS A TAD HIGHER AS WELL. THE
MAIN FORECAST CHANGES WERE TO ADD MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS WELL AS BUMP UP THE MIN TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. TEMPS FROM COLLEGE STATION TO CROCKETT MAY DROP INTO THE
MID 30S AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER WHICH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
A FEW DEGREES DUE TO MIXING. AREAS FARTHER SOUTH MAY DROP FAIRLY
CLOSE TO FREEZING LIKE CONROE AND ANGLETON. OTHERWISE...THE REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. MAIN CONCERN NOW WILL BE HOW MUCH
ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO SE TX THU/FRI. POSSIBLE TO HAVE FREEZING
TEMPS FOR MUCH OF SE TX.

[southerngale]

MAIN CONCERN NOW WILL BE HOW MUCH
ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO SE TX THU/FRI. POSSIBLE TO HAVE FREEZING
TEMPS FOR MUCH OF SE TX.

My latest forecast for tomorrow night is a low of 25, colder than what is forecast for Thursday night, a low of 29. Highs in the upper 40's or 50's all week... no chance of frozen precip. Bleh.
That does seem a little odd, though, if the main enchilada isn't supposed to arrive until Thursday or Friday. Oh well... I won't pretend to understand.

[srainhoutx]

I know southergale. It's frustrating. wxman57 checked in from Winter Park, Co and "locally" stated he thought mid 20's at IAH, possibly 23. Also stated the the Artic Airmass will dive S and not be slowed. I see 22"unoffically" in NW Harris County is not out of reach. We shall see. And to think according to the CPC in today's Update in the words of the old Carptenter's Song, "We've Only Just Begun".

[southerngale]

Now they've raised tonight's low to 28 and lowered Thursday night's low to 27. It's already been that cold this season, so while it's below normal and most certainly cold, it doesn't look like it will be the "coldest it's been in years," at least for those of us in Texas. Still time for that to possibly change, though. The ever-changing musical chairs forecast is enough to realize that.

We've only just begun? Tell me there's more snow in my future.


Edit @ 3:15 p.m. cst: They dropped tonight's low back down again. Now it's 26.

[srainhoutx]

Latest Update from HGX...

UPDATE...
HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL CALLS REGARDING A FREEZE WARNING FOR
TONIGHT. LOCAL CRITERIA FOR RE-ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING IS THE
FOLLOWING:

FIRST FREEZE OF THE YEAR WHERE LOWS =<32 DEGREES; REISSUE AGAIN
IF HARD FREEZE EXPECTED. HARD FREEZE DEFINED LOCALLY BY LOW TEMPS
<20 DEGREES FOR 8 HOURS OR MORE. ALSO REISSUE IF LATE SEASON
FREEZE EXPECTED (AFTER MARCH 15TH).

DESPITE A LONG DURATION OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT THIS CRITERIA WILL BE MET. THAT SAID...RECENT
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RATHER WARM AND PLANTS HAVE BEGUN TO SPROUT
NEW GROWTH. WILL WAIT A BIT TO EVALUATE HOW QUICKLY TEMPS FALL
AFTER SUNSET BUT AM SERIOUSLY CONSIDERING A FREZE WARNING DUE TO
THE ANTICIPATED THREAT TO AGRICULTURE.

Ed, I will probably wrap my Pigmy Date Palm Thursday.

Edit to add Freeze Warning For Coastal Counties Of SE TX per HGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
831 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2009

.UPDATE...
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. AT 01Z...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVERHEAD. WINDS WERE CALM AND DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. CONROE IS ALREADY 32 DEGREES...SO
AM EXPECTING RURAL PARTS OF MONTGOMERY COUNTY TO BE SUB-FREEZING
FOR 10-12 HOURS. LAMP AND RUC DATA SUPPORT MINIMUM TEMPS AROUND
30...BUT THIS GUIDANCE IS RUNNING ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES TOO WARM
FROM CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING ABOUT A DEGREE
PER HOUR. AREAS AWAY FROM HOUSTON SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING BY 1 AM
AND REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH 7 AM. A FREEZE WARNING HAS NOT
BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL COUNTIES SO FAR THIS SEASON SO WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS TEMPS
OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES WILL LIKELY FALL TO AROUND
30 DEGREES. FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REST
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND A HARD FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED SO ANOTHER
FREEZE WARNING WILL NOT BE ISSUED. WILL RE-ISSUE THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT DETAILING EXPECTED TEMPERATURES AND DURATION OF
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

[southerngale]

A Hard Freeze Watch popped up on my NWS page a little while ago. The expected low for tomorrow night is only 26, the same as last night. No watches or warnings last night, though. And they accurated predicted it yesterday afternoon... closest Weatherbug bottomed out at 26.

I guess the difference is the duration.

Hard Freeze Watch

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
137 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009

...HARD FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THE
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING.

LAZ027>033-041>045-TXZ180>182-201-150345-
/O.NEW.KLCH.HZ.A.0001.090116T0600Z-090116T1400Z/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-
JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...WOODVILLE...
JASPER...NEWTON...LUMBERTON
137 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009

...HARD FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A HARD
FREEZE WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT...THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR
THIS SEASON IS POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S WITH LOCALLY COOLER
SPOTS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR 10 TO 15 HOURS ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

A HARD FREEZE WATCH MEANS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH 27 DEGREES OR LOWER FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION...HARM OUTDOOR
PETS...AND POSSIBLY BURST EXPOSED WATER PIPES.

[jasons2k]

Re: vegetation:

I wrapped my Majesty Palms and dropped a cover over my orange tree last night just in case. I didn't worry about the Pygmy Dates because they can take a bit more and honestly, I don't love them all that much. I've been stuck by those thorns one too many times. Moved the potted hibiscus under cover. The hibuscus in the ground looks OK ( I watered well and most are slightly covered anyway).

I was going to take the wraps/covers off but after seeing tomorrow night's latest 4-cast, I'll leave them on for now. Hopefully it won't get any colder than currently progged, otherwise I might have issues with the plants that aren't protected...

[southerngale]

I've got a Hard Freeze Warning for a predicted low of 27...

Hard Freeze Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
252 PM CST THU JAN 15 2009

...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

.A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR
THIS SEASON.

LAZ027>033-041>045-TXZ180>182-201-161600-
/O.EXT.KLCH.HZ.W.0001.090116T0400Z-090116T1600Z/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-
JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...WOODVILLE...
JASPER...NEWTON...LUMBERTON
252 PM CST THU JAN 15 2009

...HARD FREEZE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM CST FRIDAY...

THE HARD FREEZE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S
ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND THE UPPER
20S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING FOR 9 TO 12 HOURS ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING.

A HARD FREEZE WARNING MEANS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS QUITE LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS COULD DAMAGE
PROPERTY SUCH AS EXPOSED PIPES AND WILL KILL ANY SENSITIVE
VEGETATION. CHECK ON YOUR ELDERLY FRIENDS AND FAMILY FOR PROPER
HEATING SOURCES. THOSE WHO HAVE GAS HEAT SHOULD MAKE SURE CARBON
MONOXIDE DETECTORS ARE IN GOOD WORKING ORDER. MAKE SURE PORTABLE
SPACE HEATERS ARE IN GOOD WORKING ORDER AND PLACED WELL AWAY FROM
FLAMMABLE MATERIALS SUCH AS BEDDING AND CURTAINS.

[Jagno]

Well, it's back to running the A/C and Heater all in the same day it seems. I've enjoyed the beautiful sunshine and won't complain. Our forcast seems to be a little "off" tonight as it's already 45 degrees and the forcast low was set at 55. Tomorrow we are suppose to be in the mid 70's so it looks like one more fantastic day before the rains come in.

[Ptarmigan]

We need rain because we haven't seen a good one in two months.

[vbhoutex]

Latest from Jeff:

Powerful arctic boundary moving into SE TX.



Noon temps. are 41 at Caldwell to 77 at IAH and for even a more dramatic spread 14 in Amarillo compared to 82 in Corpus Christi. Arctic boundary extends from Giddings to Brenham to S of Huntsville with a temp of 43 at CLL and 77 at Conroe. Impressive temp. fall of 25-30 degrees will occur as the front passes this afternoon. Freezing line has progressed southward through a large part of N TX where widespread freezing drizzle and freezing rain is in progress. May need to speed up onset of freezing temps. a little sooner across our northern counties by late evening given upstream temp. trends and based on temps. falling to near freezing already just N of the Austin area.



Incoming 12Z guidance suggest a slightly better threat of freezing rain tonight and icing. May need to replace the Winter Storm Watch with an Ice Storm Warning or Freezing Rain Advisory after the entire 12Z guidance is in. NWS will make this call by mid afternoon. Still do not see any need to adjust the icing area southward…although parts of Montgomery County, N Waller County, and parts of Austin and Colorado counties may be very on a very thin dividing line. All P-type will be liquid with freezing rain and sleet possible mix in the current Winter Storm Watch area. Accumulations of .1 to .25 of an inch continue to hold.

Temps are already at 46º 30 miles to my North in Hempstead and 60 miles to my West in Columbus so the cold is definitely on the way. Now we wait to see what kind of and the timing of any precipitation that swings through our area.

[srainhoutx]

A/C still running, but not for long

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
306 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSE TO A 40 DEGREE TEMP SPREAD WITHIN THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING IN. FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE
COAST BY MID EVENING. MAY SEE A THIN BAND OF SHRA DEVELOP ACROSS
EXTREME SE PARTS AS IT MOVES IN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT POST FRONTAL
PRECIP TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING TO THE
NORTH AND WEST AS THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES. THIS AREA SHOULD SAG
SEWD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCE THE THREAT OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF SE TX. EXPECT NEAR FREEZING TEMPS TO
BEGIN SAGGING SWD THE CALDWELL-CROCKETT AREAS TOWARD 10 PM AND BY
MORNING WOULD ANTICIPATE THE FREEZE LINE TO BE SITUATED JUST NORTH
OF A LIVINGSTON-MONTGOMERY-BRENHAM LINE. THIS IS THE AREA WE
DECIDED TO GO WITH A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TONIGHT. NEXT SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND UPGRADE TO A WARNING IF IT
LOOKS NECESSARY. JUST REALLY HESITANT TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON A
WARNING YET AS GLOBAL MODEL QPF`S HAVE BEEN WAY OVERDONE THIS
WINTER (INCLUDING THIS EVENT). IT`S ALSO SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS
IF THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD FREEZING SFC TEMPS IN THIS
REGION...KIND OF BORDERLINE AT THIS POINT. GOING WITH THE 12Z
NAM12 FOR TEMPS. DID HOWEVER NOTICE THE 18Z RUN CAME IN A BIT
WARMER (MOSTLY ALL SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING). THINK VAST MAJORITY
OF ANY PROBLEMS THAT ARISE SHOULD MOSTLY DEAL WITH ICE ON ELEVATED
ROADS/BRIDGES/ETC. NOT EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS WITH THE HOUSTON
METRO AREA. PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR OUT WED MORNING AND SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN CLEARING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRES/FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURS
REINFORCING THE COOL, DRY AND MCLEAR CONDITIONS. ONSHORE FLOW
RESUMES ON SAT AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. UPPER TROF AND
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACH TX ON SUN BRINGING THE NEXT SHOT OF
RAINFALL. 47

[vbhoutex]

Latest from Jeff:

Powerful arctic boundary moving into SE TX.



Noon temps. are 41 at Caldwell to 77 at IAH and for even a more dramatic spread 14 in Amarillo compared to 82 in Corpus Christi. Arctic boundary extends from Giddings to Brenham to S of Huntsville with a temp of 43 at CLL and 77 at Conroe. Impressive temp. fall of 25-30 degrees will occur as the front passes this afternoon. Freezing line has progressed southward through a large part of N TX where widespread freezing drizzle and freezing rain is in progress. May need to speed up onset of freezing temps. a little sooner across our northern counties by late evening given upstream temp. trends and based on temps. falling to near freezing already just N of the Austin area.



Incoming 12Z guidance suggest a slightly better threat of freezing rain tonight and icing. May need to replace the Winter Storm Watch with an Ice Storm Warning or Freezing Rain Advisory after the entire 12Z guidance is in. NWS will make this call by mid afternoon. Still do not see any need to adjust the icing area southward…although parts of Montgomery County, N Waller County, and parts of Austin and Colorado counties may be very on a very thin dividing line. All P-type will be liquid with freezing rain and sleet possible mix in the current Winter Storm Watch area. Accumulations of .1 to .25 of an inch continue to hold.

Temps are already at 46º 30 miles to my North in Hempstead and 60 miles to my West in Columbus so the cold is definitely on the way. Now we wait to see what kind of and the timing of any precipitation that swings through our area.

Front finally pulled through Spring Branch area of Houston about 30 minutes ago. We started at 79ºf and are now at 53º! That's a 26ºf drop in less than an hour and probably closer to a half hour. Not gonna be a nice day tomorrow!!