Wave over eastern Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 92L)

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmmm, I was more bullish on this yesterday than today being an actual threat. I guess just like everything else this year, it will be ripped apart by dry air or shear or ULL's........What a bizarre year so far.

[CourierPR]

This system looks decent. Yet, I see posts that say there is nothing there or it's going to be ripped apart by shear, SAL, ULLs,etc. and I wonder what these people are looking at.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 840 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS OF VENEZUELA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS LIKELY TO
BE SLOW DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO LAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

vorticity remains strong

[ConvergenceZone]

This system looks decent. Yet, I see posts that say there is nothing there or it's going to be ripped apart by shear, SAL, ULLs,etc. and I wonder what these people are looking at.

Courier, just stating that it's the way the season has gone so far. It's usually one of the other that's been keeping these waves from developing.

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

It could be an illusion but appears to be coming together

[KFDM Meteorologist]

12Z EURO brings system way south into BOC then Mexico...To much Ridging to the north!!!!!!!

[lrak]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

It could be an illusion but appears to be coming together

I agree, it looks better than yesterday. A BOC storm would be nice, we've had two BOC swells hit the TX coast this summer and thats awesome for early August.

[HURAKAN]

Tomorrow could be interesting

[hurricaneCW]

Everybody says "tomorrow could be interesting". It never is. The environment looks marginal for this one and it's too close to land. Models don't really develop it. Probably nothing will come from it. Either that or it will try to get going but crash into Central America.

[HURAKAN]

Everybody says "tomorrow could be interesting". It never is. The environment looks marginal for this one and it's too close to land. Models don't really develop it. Probably nothing will come from it. Either that or it will try to get going but crash into Central America.

it has an anticyclone over and it's moving away from South America

[hurricaneCW]

The wave is still likely to bury itself into Central America even if the apparent conditions are favorable. I don't see anything that would indicate any rapid development in the next couple of days. The NHC agrees with their last TWO.

[HURAKAN]

convection increasing in D-min

[lrak]

It never is.

Never? Bummer lets close up shop for the season

[mattpetre]

I would tend to agree with Hurakan that this could be very interesting in the next two to three days and I also think it will make it to Mexican latitude at least rather than just Central America.

[HURAKAN]

pressure decreasing, most likely due to the normal cycle but still it's lower than yesterday



strong vorticity



impressive anticyclone

I would guess chances are going up at 8 pm, maybe 30%

[HURAKAN]

Bonaire:

6 PM (22) Aug 03 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.77 (1008) ENE 7
5 PM (21) Aug 03 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.80 (1009) ENE 6
4 PM (20) Aug 03 87 (31) 78 (26) 29.80 (1009) NW 2
3 PM (19) Aug 03 80 (27) 78 (26) 29.83 (1010) Calm
2 PM (18) Aug 03 77 (25) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) E 8 heavy rain
1 PM (17) Aug 03 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) ESE 9 rain
Noon (16) Aug 03 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) E 12
11 AM (15) Aug 03 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) E 13
10 AM (14) Aug 03 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) E 12
9 AM (13) Aug 03 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) E 8

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TNCB.html

[blazess556]

radar imagery of the caribbean disturbance.


http://www.weather.an/radar/ppi.html

[KWT]

The wave is still likely to bury itself into Central America even if the apparent conditions are favorable. I don't see anything that would indicate any rapid development in the next couple of days. The NHC agrees with their last TWO.

Nah nothing too quick, but the conditions are favourable, the only obvious problem has to be the fact that its right on top of SA.

Watch for it in the W.Caribbean because that issue with the land will be gone and with a favourable upper conditions as well, probably will have more then enough time to develop (probably only need 24hrs with the current set-up providing the wave remains convectivly active)

[xcool22]

http://www.weather.an/radar/cappi.html


go here rader

AOI