ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[KWT]

Hmmm yeah it does look like it slightly lacking in decent deep convection looking at the Vis...however its probably worthy of a code red soon because the circulation is clear as day.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[abajan]

Using Frengly.com, here is the translation for the French posted in the thread thus far:

Gaston, est'ce que c'est toi?
Gaston, est'ce that you? (I guess that should read: Gaston, is that you?)

Non pas encore, mais si ça continue ainsi ce sera moi
Not yet, but if this continues it will be me

Oui, c'est vrai ~ c'est possible.
Yes, it’s true ~ possible.

développement prend temps
Development takes time

Ce serais une bonne chose Hurakan, espérons que cela se fasse un jour
Frengly.com’s translation: This would be a good thing Hurakan, hope this is done one day
Gustywind’s translation: That could be a good thing Hurakan, let's hope that this will happen one day
(Interesting... I wonder who’s right? )

Isn’t there an S2K rule about using only English in posts? Not wishing to spoil the fun but just wondering.

Anyway, to bring this back on topic:

00Z Nogaps has it crossing barbados....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Please let this be fiction! From the time there was just a hint of it becoming an invest, 98L has been giving me the creeps.

[punkyg]

How come the SSD sat images aren't showing?

I am having trouble seeing them.

[Gustywind]

Using Frengly.com, here is the translation for the French posted in the thread thus far:

Gaston, est'ce que c'est toi?
Gaston, est'ce that you? (I guess that should read: Gaston, is that you?)

Non pas encore, mais si ça continue ainsi ce sera moi
Not yet, but if this continues it will be me

Oui, c'est vrai ~ c'est possible.
Yes, it’s true ~ possible.

développement prend temps
Development takes time

Ce serais une bonne chose Hurakan, espérons que cela se fasse un jour
Frengly.com’s translation: This would be a good thing Hurakan, hope this is done one day
Gustywind’s translation: That could be a good thing Hurakan, let's hope that this will happen one day
(Interesting... I wonder who’s right? )

Isn’t there an S2K rule about using only English in posts? Not wishing to spoil the fun but just wondering.

Anyway, to bring this back on topic:

00Z Nogaps has it crossing barbados....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Please let this be fiction! From the time there was just a hint of it becoming an invest, 98L has been giving me the creeps.

Good catch Abajan merci beaucoup pour cette remarque= thanks a lot for this remark.
Back to topic Is 98 L would travel way south towards the Windwards islands? Let's wait and see as we're far away from that, but we should continue to see how it evolves day after day, keeping a small eye on.

[Gustywind]

From San Juan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 AM AST WED SEP 1 2010

WE WILL BE WATCHING THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR 12 NORTH AND 34.5 WEST CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A
COUPLE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS REALLY LIKE THIS SYSTEM AND TPC/NHC
HAS NOW BUMPED THE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL UP TO 50% OR A MEDIUM
CHANCE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[Gustywind]

Latest SSD

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
01/0545 UTC 12.0N 33.5W T2.0/2.0 98L
01/0015 UTC 12.2N 31.9W T1.5/1.5 98L

Continues to travel west.

[abajan]

How come the SSD sat images aren't showing?

I am having trouble seeing them.

Yep. Since yesterday, others have been reporting the same thing. I think the problem is being caused by too many S2K members trying to view the site simultaneously!

[HURAKAN]

Latest SSD

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
01/0545 UTC 12.0N 33.5W T2.0/2.0 98L
01/0015 UTC 12.2N 31.9W T1.5/1.5 98L

Continues to travel west.

2.0 is 30 knots ... btw, the computer models developing this system show a very slow locomotion over the next few days

[HURAKAN]

How come the SSD sat images aren't showing?

I am having trouble seeing them.

they're back

[O Town]

I think it looks pretty good right now, but seems the models aren't
so sure on this one.

[ColinDelia]

Here's the 6 hours change since the last TWO. We'll see what it brings.

Current


6 hours ago

[HURAKAN]

199
ABNT20 KNHC 011152
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 180 MILES EAST OF SAN SALVADOR...AND
ON TROPICAL STORM FIONA...LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BARBUDA IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAVE INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE

[Cuber]

How come the SSD sat images aren't showing?

I am having trouble seeing them.

Yep. Since yesterday, others have been reporting the same thing. I think the problem is being caused by too many S2K members trying to view the site simultaneously!

It's not so much the members as it is the "guests" --- especially those who aren't used to dealing with summer storms in the NE-CONUS

[cycloneye]

199
ABNT20 KNHC 011152
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 180 MILES EAST OF SAN SALVADOR...AND
ON TROPICAL STORM FIONA...LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BARBUDA IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAVE INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE

Here we go!

[Evil Jeremy]

My guess is TD at 5 if organization improves at this rate. This thing has been jumping the % chart fast. It was at 20% 12 hours ago and 50% 6 hours ago. By my calculations, this should have a 110% chance of forming in 6 hours .

[ColinDelia]

It's really turning up the juice now.

[abajan]

My guess is TD at 5 if organization improves at this rate. This thing has been jumping the % chart fast. It was at 20% 12 hours ago and 50% 6 hours ago. By my calculations, this should have a 110% chance of forming in 6 hours .

Or possibly a 100% chance that it formed 6 hours ago!
Seriously though, I never expected this to ramp up so fast. I guess that's better news for Barbados and the Windward Islands because conventional thought is that quick developers tend to go WNW. Not saying that it definitely will do this, of course.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking better but still need a better surface reflection. the mid level is still very vigorous and it seems this morning there is a little bit more low level curvature. still has another 24 hours minimum until we are looking at a depression or very close too.