Season Cancel!

[WeatherGuesser]

When you hit the "View Active Topics" link at the top of this page, what do you see?

Threads on baseball, football, air crashes and chatrooms are not what I would expect to see there in September.

[rainstorm]

hope springs eternal. from JB:

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
By 10/15 expect 4 named storms within area bounded by 90w,30n,70w. Another US threat period looms in the upcoming pattern

[BigB0882]

What does that mean, bounded by...?

[rainstorm]

he means 4 storms between 70 and 90w, south of 30n.

[rainstorm]

as far as jb's prediction:

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
By 10/15 expect 4 named storms within area bounded by 90w,30n,70w. Another US threat period looms in the upcoming pattern
19 Sep

i dont think it will even come close. ophelia wont make it to 70w and with the lack of any semblance of a west atlantic ridge west carib development seems unlikely.

[SFLcane]

This has been such an odd year in every sense imaginable. One thing is for sure i can do with that eastcoast trof next few seasons.

[lilybeth]

Looks like Ophelia is predicted to be a fish just like most of her brothers and sisters. I'm also glad we've been protected by those troughs this year, although it would be nice for something small to get into the GOM and send a nice rainfall to Texas, maybe a little TD. That drought and those wildfires are just awful.

[rainstorm]

Looks like Ophelia is predicted to be a fish just like most of her brothers and sisters. I'm also glad we've been protected by those troughs this year, although it would be nice for something small to get into the GOM and send a nice rainfall to Texas, maybe a little TD. That drought and those wildfires are just awful.

off topic a bit but from what i am seeing most forecasts are for a drier and warmer than normal winter for texas. the high wont budge.

[gatorcane]

This has been such an odd year in every sense imaginable. One thing is for sure i can do with that eastcoast trof next few seasons.

That trough refuses to budge and we are going on a couple of months now. I recall a period in the mid to end of July timeframe where ridging was quite strong across the Western Atlantic, but it has been gone ever since.

Ironically enough, the only "significant" U.S hit may be Irene, which impacted areas that don't normally get hit at all (Northeastern CONUS).

Still, must get past October, which can get ugly with systems of origins in the NW Caribbean getting pulled north into the Eastern CONUS weakness

[hurricanetrack]

Add to that the very favorable looking MJO coming in to the Caribbean:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... JO/gfs.gif

We shall see.

[StormClouds63]

off topic a bit but from what i am seeing most forecasts are for a drier and warmer than normal winter for texas. the high wont budge.

I assume that would also include SW LA?

[ConvergenceZone]

hope springs eternal. from JB:

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
By 10/15 expect 4 named storms within area bounded by 90w,30n,70w. Another US threat period looms in the upcoming pattern

I really really wish JB would give it a rest....His track record is so horrible, yet he continues making these predictions that nobody really listens to....
There's a much higher likelihood that the season will shut off early as opposed to what he's calling for.

[WeatherGuesser]

hope springs eternal. from JB:

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
By 10/15 expect 4 named storms within area bounded by 90w,30n,70w. Another US threat period looms in the upcoming pattern

I really really wish JB would give it a rest...

I really wish people would stop referring to him period. I really don't care what pay-for-play webbies think.

[FireRat]

With Accuweather, I've learned that if nothing big is mentioned on their FREE main page, then whatever is going on "behind the scenes" is just speculation.

I pay attention to them just like the weather channel once something gets going. For now, zzzzzzzzz.

Although, worldwide, the EPAC is providing the action now....and thankfully without disaster impact for the time being with Hilary.

[dwsqos2]

Dear Atmosphere,

I can't wait until Hilary dissipates. Sooner would be much better. I would prefer a track far offshore that exposes it to cooler waters, stronger shear, and more stable air.

Regards,
dwsqos2

P.S. The Atlantic season has been really depressing. Do something about it.

[rainstorm]

Dear Atmosphere,

I can't wait until Hilary dissipates. Sooner would be much better. I would prefer a track far offshore that exposes it to cooler waters, stronger shear, and more stable air.

Regards,
dwsqos2

P.S. The Atlantic season has been really depressing. Do something about it.

put the season out of its misery?

[hurricanetrack]

We are getting closer to the point where it is possible, however unlikely, that we'll only have three hurricanes this season. I would have never guessed it would be so slack this season. Add to this the fact that the EPAC has another cat-4 over low end heat content waters??? Wow.

It would be really nice to get some insight as to why this is happening. And not just "vertical instability issues" or "shear" and "persistent East Coast trough". Why are those phenomenon in place this season? What caused them to be there that the major forecast gurus did not see months ago? Were there not clues in the long range models that a massive high would just sit over Texas and vicinity? Surely the modeling did not show a strong subtropical ridge for the summer and it just happens that it was simply not there. How can something that large in the overall pattern be missed? Just wanting to understand. It's kind of like your favorite sports team being projected to win it all and they come out flat the entire season and actually end up near the bottom of the pack. You just have to wonder....

[wxman57]

With Accuweather, I've learned that if nothing big is mentioned on their FREE main page, then whatever is going on "behind the scenes" is just speculation.

I pay attention to them just like the weather channel once something gets going. For now, zzzzzzzzz.

Although, worldwide, the EPAC is providing the action now....and thankfully without disaster impact for the time being with Hilary.

Joe left AccuWeather last year. He's with WeatherBell now.

[Blown Away]

Joe left AccuWeather last year. He's with WeatherBell now.

Wxman57 what are your thoughts for the remainder of the season? If a system develops in the NW Caribbean does the general setup favor a SFL stirke?

[wxman57]

Wxman57 what are your thoughts for the remainder of the season? If a system develops in the NW Caribbean does the general setup favor a SFL stirke?

The development in the NW Caribbean may occur as high pressure moves over the eastern U.S. during the first week of October. Normally, a north or northeast track would be expected, but there can be exceptions (Lili 2002 toward mid LA coast). The pattern is constantly changing. A storm developing in the NW Caribbean early October could be blocked from tracking N-NE initially, which would open up the north-central Gulf coast. Hard to say this far out. Anywhere from LA to FL could be at risk. Probably not TX.