EPAC: DORA - Remnants

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Yellow Evan
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Re: Re:

#161 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 20, 2011 11:06 am

cycloneye wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Why doesn't the NHC want to reach Cat 4.


WHILE THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING STEADILY DURING ITS
LIFETIME...IT HAS HAD SOME TROUBLE DEVELOPING AN INNER CORE.
PERHAPS THIS IS DUE TO SOME MID-LEVEL SHEAR AS INDICATED BY LOCAL
NHC SHEAR DIAGNOSTICS


And the window to intensify gets smaller with time as cooler waters await.


you're right, the storm has actually been intensifying slower than it was expected. At advisory 1, the forecast 48 hours intensity was 85 knts, it was 80 knt's now.
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#162 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 20, 2011 11:39 am

It still could rapidly intensify.
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#163 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Jul 20, 2011 11:56 am

I think this thing could still make low-end category 4. It finally looks like its really coming together on all imagery. A well formed and larger CDO has formed around the eye which is gradually becoming more apparent. This thing IMO looks like its just about to start that real intensifying trend
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#164 Postby Hurricane Jed » Wed Jul 20, 2011 11:56 am

Can't fast forward speed also slow down or inhibit development?
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Re:

#165 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 20, 2011 12:00 pm

Hurricane Jed wrote:Can't fast forward speed also slow down or inhibit development?


That's why it has not developed as fast as anticipated.
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#166 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 20, 2011 12:06 pm

Image

It's almost time.
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#167 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 20, 2011 12:17 pm

Image

Very impressive microwave image
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#168 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 20, 2011 12:18 pm

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 964.3mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 6.0 6.0


Rapidly intensifying
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#169 Postby WxEnthus » Wed Jul 20, 2011 12:36 pm

Recon question -- do EPAC storms get investigated by the hurricane hunters? Excuse me if that's a silly question. My first thought was that they probably don't because very rarely do they ever become a threat to the U.S. but then again, we investigate many storms in the ATL that don't appear to threaten the Eastern or Gulf U.S. coast.

Dora is looking very impressive and it's looking to be a very active season there, so I'm wondering if we ever get in situ data from any of the cyclones that form in the EPAC?
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#170 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 20, 2011 12:38 pm

WxEnthus wrote:Recon question -- do EPAC storms get investigated by the hurricane hunters? Excuse me if that's a silly question. My first thought was that they probably don't because very rarely do they ever become a threat to the U.S. but then again, we investigate many storms in the ATL that don't appear to threaten the Eastern or Gulf U.S. coast.

Dora is looking very impressive and it's looking to be a very active season there, so I'm wondering if we ever get in situ data from any of the cyclones that form in the EPAC?


Yes,

PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIX HURRICANE DORA
NEAR 19.8N 110.0W AT 22/2000Z
.
JWP
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#171 Postby Fyzn94 » Wed Jul 20, 2011 12:45 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DORA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2011

...DORA STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 103.6W
ABOUT 215 MI...355 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
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NOTICE: I cannot give an expert analysis. Most of my "observations" are made visually with the help of only vital information provided by public advisories.

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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#172 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 20, 2011 12:59 pm

WxEnthus wrote:Recon question -- do EPAC storms get investigated by the hurricane hunters? Excuse me if that's a silly question. My first thought was that they probably don't because very rarely do they ever become a threat to the U.S. but then again, we investigate many storms in the ATL that don't appear to threaten the Eastern or Gulf U.S. coast.

Dora is looking very impressive and it's looking to be a very active season there, so I'm wondering if we ever get in situ data from any of the cyclones that form in the EPAC?


It occurs sometimes:
Here's the list of storms that I know got recon (from my memory)
2011:
Beatriz (one)
2010:
Estelle (one)
2009:
Rick (two)
Jimena (two)
Felicia (four)
Andres (one)
2008
Norbert (three)
Odile (one)
Alma (one)
2007
Henriette (two)
Flossie (five)
2006
John (three)
Lane (two)
Ioke (one)
Paul (two)
2005
Adrian (one)
2004
Javier (two)
Lester (two)
And that's all I remember
On average two or three storms a year
And here the latest images of Dora
I'd go with 95 kt right now. It will peak at 125 knts or so IMO, but refer to the NHC for official forecasts.
Image
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#173 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 20, 2011 1:24 pm

20/1745 UTC 15.2N 103.7W T5.5/5.5 DORA -- East Pacific

100 knots
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#174 Postby Macrocane » Wed Jul 20, 2011 1:35 pm

It looks like it finally entered in the phase of intensification that had been anticipated, looks very good right now.
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#175 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 20, 2011 1:38 pm

EP, 04, 2011072018, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1036W,95, 968 HU
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#176 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 20, 2011 1:42 pm

Image

Impressive storm
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#177 Postby Battlebrick » Wed Jul 20, 2011 1:46 pm

Wait, recon today or tomorrow?
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#178 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 20, 2011 1:49 pm

Battlebrick wrote:Wait, recon today or tomorrow?


tomorrow
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#179 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 20, 2011 1:50 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Battlebrick wrote:Wait, recon today or tomorrow?


tomorrow


Friday
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#180 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 20, 2011 1:53 pm

Wow since I last posted.... this thing is beginning to blow up.
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