2013 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

I spy upper-level lows near 10°N/140°W and also just off the tip of Baja California. That seems unusual to me, but it's nice to remind the people freaking out about ULLs in the Gulf that they happen in other basins too.

That is sorta why the AOI is not forming.

[Yellow Evan]

Ivo near Baja.



Love these kinds of storms.

Cut off low which is cooling me down and making EPAC more favoralbe is gonna sit there.



Looks like warm moisture is gonna sit there and collide over the Colorado River valley. I'd be inclined to compare this to Octave 83,m but that's way far fetched. Ivo looks neet in this GFS run.



Ivo done, but now Juliete is here. Looks way too familiar. Classic EPAC late August set up.



Ignacio 03 redux? Really really familiar sight.



Weekend landfall as a Cat 2/1 into Cabo. A little like Henriette 95. At this time, in the ATL, nothing terrific going on, just dud TS's in the middle of nowhere. So, the EPAC has a chance to get some attention. Gabrielle by then would have passed over Canada. If this run will be correct, which it likely won't be 100% accurate.



This will likely be over Baja around this time. Models tend to like to turn storms west at this time, but in reality, they don't (well, aty least not in John 06 and Jimena 09.)

[supercane4867]

12z ECMWF sends a hurricane into the Gulf of California

[Kingarabian]

The Euro has been awaken!

@Yellow Evan, thanks for the full D-L and posting those GFS runs.

[Ntxw]

I noticed the daily SOI has been negative the last couple of days due to Tahiti's pressure falling. I wonder if this is a signal of another Kelvin wave possibly to come through the eastern Pacific and explains the models, including usually conservative euro, to pick up activity.

[Yellow Evan]

The Euro has been awaken!

@Yellow Evan, thanks for the full D-L and posting those GFS runs.

Your welcome.

Anyhow, as Pewa gives it all as it leaves the, the EPAC is bound to get active again. May not last into September as there is a chance the ATL could decide to generate storms and thus steal the EPAC's waves. And with no waves, it's hard to get a storm.

[Kingarabian]

The Euro has been awaken!

@Yellow Evan, thanks for the full D-L and posting those GFS runs.

Your welcome.

Anyhow, as Pewa gives it all as it leaves the, the EPAC is bound to get active again. May not last into September as there is a chance the ATL could decide to generate storms and thus steal the EPAC's waves. And with no waves, it's hard to get a storm.

Well if the EPAC goes active once again, wouldn't that suppress the activity in the Atlantic?

[Yellow Evan]

The Euro has been awaken!

@Yellow Evan, thanks for the full D-L and posting those GFS runs.

Your welcome.

Anyhow, as Pewa gives it all as it leaves the, the EPAC is bound to get active again. May not last into September as there is a chance the ATL could decide to generate storms and thus steal the EPAC's waves. And with no waves, it's hard to get a storm.

Well if the EPAC goes active once again, wouldn't that suppress the activity in the Atlantic?

That's usually the case from my observation. I have not seen anything to confirm this trend though.

Anyhow, here is our afternoon model fix.



First shows a TD.

Likely this system:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.




Ivo is here.




Near Baja now.

Okay from the same system



Euro acting a bit like the GFDL/HWRF with an eastward bias. Ah, the models wars EPAC style. Also, on the edge, Pewa is still out there.



Start of Juliette



Poised for BCS.



A bit offshore here and weaker. This looks interesting.

[Yellow Evan]

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

[somethingfunny]

There's no correlation between one basin being active while the other is quiet. Sometimes it works out that way, with MJO pulses in one basin or another, or because the basins are historically active in different months (July is active in the EPAC and generally quiet in the ATL, and October is the reverse) but during the peak months of the season, August 15-October 15, it's not at all uncommon to have major hurricanes existing in both basins at the same time.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 18 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER PASCH

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

Eh... Pewa went to typhoon land :o

[Yellow Evan]

I did not post models last night since none of the runs were interesting.



About when Ivo starts to form.



Stalls Ivo offshore before striking BCS.



Moves intro SW. Could dump tons of rain in Baja if this verifies.

It dropped Juliette though.

CMC does show it however.

[hurricanes1234]

This thread is for all to share their thoughts and opinions on the 2013 Pacific Hurricane Season so far. I think this year has been somewhat quiet in terms of intense storms, but all of them except for Alvin and Flossie made it to hurricane strength. Thankfully, none of these storms, other than Barbara and Erick, made landfall. There have been no major hurricanes yet, but Henriette came fairly close (105 mph). What do you think the rest of the season will be like? What about so far? Do you think we'll see any major storms? What do you think is causing the lack of strong systems? How about the central Pacific? Feel free to discuss it here!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Has Ivo forming here. I'm not gonna post runs for Ivo anymore though, especially since someone did in 94E's thread.



Now, this is neat. I think this is the same system that NHC mentions:

A LOW PRESSURE AREA COULD FORM WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN A FEW DAYS. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

But then fizziles out



Here comes Kiko.



Passes it SW of the Baja, could be a hurricane.

[hurricanes1234]

I know I've asked and said this many times, but I find it quite odd that there have been no major hurricanes yet. I am not favouring a devastating landfall, but around this same time last year, we already had Category 4 Hurricane Emilia and Category 3 Bud and Daniel, three Category 4s at the end of August 2011 (Adrian, Dora and Eugene), and in 2010, there would have been two major hurricanes (Category 5 Hurricane Celia and Category 3 Hurricane Darby) by late August. Has anyone else noticed this? Is something preventing them from developing or rather, intensifying? Most of the storms are fine until they reach hurricane strength, where they begin to encounter unfavourable conditions. Again, I am definitely not in favour of a landfalling or devastating system, I am just very curious to know what could be causing this drop in intensification. Any answers would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

I know I've asked and said this many times, but I find it quite odd that there have been no major hurricanes yet. I am not favouring a devastating landfall, but around this same time last year, we already had Category 4 Hurricane Emilia and Category 3 Bud and Daniel, three Category 4s at the end of August 2011 (Adrian, Dora and Eugene), and in 2010, there would have been two major hurricanes (Category 5 Hurricane Celia and Category 3 Hurricane Darby) by late August. Has anyone else noticed this? Is something preventing them from developing or rather, intensifying? Most of the storms are fine until they reach hurricane strength, where they begin to encounter unfavourable conditions. Again, I am definitely not in favour of a landfalling or devastating system, I am just very curious to know what could be causing this drop in intensification. Any answers would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

We've all noticed it. It's due to dry air/lack fo vertical instability IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

Start of Juliette (Kiko in last post, now dropped by GFS)



Close to Baja.



9.9

[CrazyC83]

With the CPAC on steroids right now, possibly due to the MJO, could that be moving into the EPAC for the last week of August?

[Yellow Evan]

With the CPAC on steroids right now, possibly due to the MJO, could that be moving into the EPAC for the last week of August?

Yes, that is expected to happen. So the eastern half of the basin will be on steroids