EPAC: AMANDA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

From the FTP site, 1630Z



ftp://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/goeswest/overview2/vis/

So far, this is the most impressive NHem storm this year. IMO, that look of Amanda is a typical look of rapidly intensifying (but quite midget) hurricanes and typhoons, which remind me of what happened during Raymond, Adrian, Utor and Soulik. What was the strongest May ePac storm on record, BTW?

Adolph 01

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane ... %282001%29

[SouthDadeFish]

Amanda is reaping the benefits of a great poleward outflow jet and warm SSTs. With the very small core, rapid intensity changes are likely. If the eye clears out soon, look for ADT numbers to skyrocket.

[Yellow Evan]

Amanda is reaping the benefits of a great poleward outflow jet and warm SSTs. With the very small core, rapid intensity changes are likely. If the eye clears out soon, look for ADT numbers to skyrocket.

Looking at the loops, the eye does appear to be becoming more defined. I'd go with 70 or 75 knts now.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

A little late here, but the 12z SHIPS indicated a 6/10 chance of a 40kt increase in winds over the next 24 hours. That's the highest I've seen in quite a while.

[cycloneye]

The 12z model package has them reaching a intensity peak between high cat 2 and low cat 3.

[Yellow Evan]

Is it possible the brief unarrested development earlier was due to a little dry air?

[cycloneye]

Up to 70kts.

EP, 01, 2014052418, , BEST, 0, 113N, 1101W, 70, 987, HU

[SeGaBob]

Any chance at Cat 4 status?

There's always a chance for surprises when dealing with small, rapidly-intensifying hurricanes. I wouldn't say it's particularly likely, but I wouldn't say it can't reach Category 4 either.

Anything could happen... this time yesterday we didn't really think there was a decent chance of a category 3 but then again it could just magically poof.

[tolakram]

19:00Z

[hurricanes1234]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 242033
TCDEP1

HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
200 PM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014

Amanda's eye is becoming more apparent in visible imagery. The
hurricane has a fairly small central dense overcast with one
prominent convective band curving around the western and northern
side of the circulation. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are
T4.0/65 kt, and the objective ADT has been steady around 70 kt for
the past few hours. The initial intensity is raised to 70 kt based
on the ADT estimate and the development of an eye in visible
imagery.

Amanda likely has another 36 hours or so of favorable conditions
for intensification before southerly vertical wind shear begins to
increase. The rate of intensification may have slowed down just a
bit, but there's no real good reason not to expect further
strengthening in the short term. One potential limiting factor
could be upwelling of colder ocean water due to the slow movement of
the hurricane during the next few days. The intensity guidance has
backed off a bit on this cycle, with many of the models peaking the
maximum winds just below major hurricane strength. Only the Florida
State Superensemble explicitly shows Amanda becoming a major
hurricane in 24-36 hours. Nonetheless, Amanda is forecast to be
right around the major hurricane threshold of 100 kt in a day or
so. After 36 hours, higher vertical shear should induce a fairly
fast weakening trend, and the NHC forecast now shows Amanda
becoming a tropical depression by day 5.

Amanda's motion remains 290/4 kt. The hurricane should begin
turning northwestward within 24 hours and then northward by 36
hours as the mid-level ridge over Mexico weakens. A slightly
faster motion may develop in about 48 hours due to a
restrengthening of the mid-level ridge over Mexico and an
amplification of a mid-level low near 130W. The NHC forecast has
again been shifted a bit to the right toward the tracks of the
GFS and ECMWF, both of which lie along the eastern edge of the
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 11.4N 110.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 11.5N 110.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 12.0N 111.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 12.6N 111.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 13.5N 111.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 15.0N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 16.0N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 16.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[hurricanes1234]

Latest frame shows a ring of convection completely wrapping around the small and newly formed eye or eye-like structure. Based on that alone, I would think some serious intensification is definitely going on now. However, I'm only amateur.

[Yellow Evan]

Latest frame shows a ring of convection completely wrapping around the small and newly formed eye or eye-like structure. Based on that alone, I would think some serious intensification is definitely going on now. However, I'm only amateur.

It's starting to ramp up again. It could be a Cat 2 tonight IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

[Kingarabian]

Deepening is happening right now.

[hurricanes1234]

I know this may be a little far-fetched, but do you think a special update will be issued at 5:00 PM PDT?

[Yellow Evan]

I know this may be a little far-fetched, but do you think a special update will be issued at 5:00 PM PDT?

Doubt it, given it's not a threat to land. Honestly, I'd say this 75-80 knts max.

[Steve820]

I know this may be a little far-fetched, but do you think a special update will be issued at 5:00 PM PDT?

Possibly, but only if it continues to rapidly strengthen to the point that the NHC have to rush an advisory. I can't wait until Amanda achieves major hurricane status! It'll be the first May major since Bud in 2012.

[hurricanes1234]

Just wow. I'd personally estimate an intensity of 85 knots now. Look at that perfect ring of red and the partial ring of grey.



IMPORTANT: This picture may not be compatible with some devices (it is a GIF file).

[Extratropical94]

Now that the ADT's detect an eye, the raw T-numbers are shooting up.

CIMSS:

Code: Select all

                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                4.3 / 985.9mb/ 72.2kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                4.3     4.7     6.3
 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

 Center Temp : -24.1C    Cloud Region Temp : -71.3C

 Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

SSD:
2014MAY24 223000 4.4 984.2 74.6 4.4 4.9 6.0 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -24.13 -71.31 EYE/P

[cycloneye]

Eye clearing.