ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

I'm not really seeing any spin yet. Recon still scheduled for Tue flights? Sure wish they'd fly in earlier, as fast as it's moving along

I just found it at 8N 42W

[SouthernBreeze]

Right, I can see that there too, almost looking like wanting to clear an eye there - needs to pull itself together and organize for that to happen though. Really staying low in latitude!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[GCANE]

LL Convergence is improving

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html







Nice poleward outflow as well

[GCANE]

UL Conditions not so good.

Strong shear ahead and UL Vort.

Going to keep a lid on it until the islands.

[GCANE]

I noticed on this WV loop a ton of convective debris is moving into the Carib, especially the western end.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+24

Going to make a really good setup for intensification as 97L rolls in.

[abajan]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a large low
pressure area located about 1150 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands has increased and become a little better organized
since yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this week while the low moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Windward
Islands, the southeastern and south-central Caribbean Sea, as well
as the northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Forecaster Stewart

[abajan]

2-Day Formation Chance Up to 60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
pressure located about 1100 miles east-southeast of the Windward
Islands continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form around mid-week while the low
moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in
the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, including the northern coast
of South America, should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development, heavy rains and strong gusty winds should
spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southern Lesser
Antilles beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent ...

Forecaster Kimberlain

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W from 17N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. A 1010 mb low
pressure center is near 09N along the tropical wave. Convective
precipitation: scattered strong from 09N to 13N between 42W and
50W. The chance of development into a tropical cyclone for this
feature is medium. ...

[tolakram]

visible loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=15&lon=-40&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray&map=county

[Blown Away]

Again, NHC/TAFB shows a TW/low entering the E Caribbean through 72 hours without the "Possible Tropical Cyclone" tag... Hmmm

[Alyono]

I'd say there is a 50/50 chance of this being a hurricane moving into the Caribbean

[Blown Away]

I'd say there is a 50/50 chance of this being a hurricane moving into the Caribbean

I know, you would think the "Possible Tropical Cyclone" tag would be on the NHC surface map...

[abajan]

visible loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=15&lon=-40&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray&map=county

Probably an optical illusion due to the angle at which the satellite is positioned, but it seems like the LOW (indicated) is moving northwest:



It's probably actually moving in a west-northwesterly direction, assuming that's the location of the center.

[Emmett_Brown]

97L certainly is moving fast. The leading edge of the convection associated with wave is already passing 50W.

[Alyono]

I'd say there is a 50/50 chance of this being a hurricane moving into the Caribbean

I know, you would think the "Possible Tropical Cyclone" tag would be on the NHC surface map...

you're reading far too much into that map. It is also not drawn by the hurricane specialists, but by TAFB.

[Alyono]

consolidation may be starting near 47W

[Emmett_Brown]

consolidation may be starting near 47W

It certainly appears to be. Isn't this a couple of degrees W of the best track coordinates? (Seems like it). If so, could that affect the track/timeline on the models?

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/780398447924883456

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/gregpostel/status/780401568990564356

[Emmett_Brown]

https://twitter.com/gregpostel/status/780401568990564356

This is a really good point. When most of us (or me at least) are looking at steering currents for 97L, we are focusing on the 500mb level. If 97L ends up being a strong hurricane, the winds way up at 200mb would act to steer it. So this is probably why it appears to magically crash through the ridge and head north.