CPAC: FERNANDA - Post-Tropical

[Cyclenall]

I'm not convinced that's a pinhole, not warm enough yet and the position is questionable. The bottom half on AVN looks like it crapped the bed so I'm eager to see how that evolves.

It would've been nice to see Fern stay at a very low lat the whole way through to make things spicy.

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, that's not an eye.

[Kingarabian]

Although open to the N/NW, this F17 pass supports the proclamation of a pinhole eye.

[Kingarabian]

The eye may finally be clearing out.

[Yellow Evan]

T5.0. LG eye embedded in LG surrounded by W.

[Yellow Evan]

A Dvorak fix I can actually agree with.

EP, 06, 201707140600, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1100N, 11740W, , 1, 90, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, JF, IM, 1, 5050 /////, , , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=5.0 BO EYE MET=4.0 PT=4.5 FTBO DT

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 06, 2017071406, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1174W, 80, 975, HU, 34, NEQ, 50, 50, 40, 50, 1010, 160, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FERNANDA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,

[Kingarabian]

ADT has trouble with pinhole eyes thus holding the intensity back.

I would go with 90kts as a T5.0 warrants one.

[Kingarabian]

GFS+GFS Parallel now keeping this a hurricane very close to Hawaii.

[Kingarabian]

Just as the eye begins to clear, overshooting cold cloud tops obscure it. I'm certain it's a major hurricane now though.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017
200 AM PDT Fri Jul 14 2017

A ragged eye has become intermittently discernible on conventional
infrared imagery, and this feature is surrounded by very cold
convective tops. The outflow continues to be well established in
the southern and eastern semicircle only. T-numbers have
continued to gradually increase to T4.5 and T5.0 on the Dvorak
scale, and the blend of these numbers support an initial intensity
of 85 kt.

Fernanda is moving across the deep tropics toward an environment of
low shear and warm ocean, and these conditions are very favorable
for additional intensification during the next 2 to 3 days. Given
such favorable environment, the NHC forecast calls for additional
strengthening, and the forecast is a little more aggressive than
indicated in the consensus. It is worth noting that the latest SHIPS
Rapid Intensification Index (RI) is not as high as earlier. Beyond
3 days, Fernanda will likely encounters cooler waters, and a gradual
weakening is expected to begin.

Fernanda is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 10kt. The
hurricane is trapped south of a strong and persistent subtropical
ridge, and this pattern should continue to steer the cyclone
westward during the next 2 to 3 days. By then, Fernanda could begin
to move west-northwestward toward a weakening of the subtropical
ridge. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous one,
and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus. Track guidance
continues to be tightly clustered, and this increases the confidence
in the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 11.0N 117.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 10.8N 119.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 11.0N 121.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 11.4N 123.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 12.0N 125.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 13.5N 130.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 14.5N 134.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 16.0N 137.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Kingarabian]

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JUL 2017 Time : 110000 UTC
Lat : 10:54:49 N Lon : 118:10:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.9 / 971.6mb/ 87.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.9 5.6 5.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 8 km

Center Temp : -40.8C Cloud Region Temp : -66.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 23.4 degrees

****************************************************

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I could see Fernanda going >Cat 3 today.

[hurricanes1234]

Oh wowww ...

[cycloneye]

EP, 06, 2017071412, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1183W, 95, 970, HU

14/1200 UTC 11.0N 118.3W T5.5/5.5 FERNANDA

[Ntxw]

Sun is about to rise on her and her small eye looks about formed. Needs a little more warming but I think this is already a major and probably a cat 4 later today or tomorrow.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JUL 2017 Time : 130000 UTC
Lat : 10:54:14 N Lon : 118:30:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 959.9mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.7 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -42.3C Cloud Region Temp : -67.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[NDG]

GFS+GFS Parallel now keeping this a hurricane very close to Hawaii.

http://i.imgur.com/wCkVaot.png

I see that the GFS is also on crack on the CPAC area
With all that windshear east of Hawaii and sub 26 deg C waters just north of the 15th latitude & east of 150th longitude there is no way it will remain a hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS+GFS Parallel now keeping this a hurricane very close to Hawaii.

http://i.imgur.com/wCkVaot.png

I see that the GFS is also on crack on the CPAC area
With all that windshear east of Hawaii and sub 26 deg C waters just north of the 15th latitude & east of 150th longitude there is no way it will remain a hurricane.

Waters are 25-26C east of Hawaii and around 24C near 150W, but the storm will be coming from the SE, so SST's shouldn't be too bad. Shear is the real problem.

[Ntxw]