WPAC: NORU - Low

[talkon]

00z GFS shows Japan landfall in ... 15 days. lol

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Looking a Typhoon again, the ull to the ssw has resolved as per vapour pic.
Question is does Noru follow the ridge to the end whilst intensifying and then
turn N poleward for a Japan landfall.

[euro6208]

Back up to a typhoon.

WDPN31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNING NR 39//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 07W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 91 NM SOUTH OF IWO TO, HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE WITH SYMMETRIC SPIRAL BANDING STRUGGLING TO FORM AN EYE
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES AND A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 300502Z 85GHZ SSMI IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO 77
KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIRLY ROBUST BUT LARGELY SELF
CONTAINED DUE TO SIGNIFICANT RIDGING SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM, WITH
ONLY A WEAK EASTWARD CHANNEL INTO THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY JET.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ASSESSED TO BE VERY LOW AND SSTS ARE VERY
FAVORABLE NEAR 30 CELSIUS. TY NORU IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE WEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS BUILDING AN EXTENSION TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE
NORTHERN RIDGE WILL ASSUME STEERING GUIDING TY NORU SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD FROM TAU 24 TO 46 WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY A RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST BUILDS NEARLY SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM. VWS WILL REMAIN VERY
LOW AND SSTS WILL EXTREMELY FAVORABLE AND TY NORU IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY TO 80 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE
RIDGING NEARLY ENCIRCLING THE SYSTEM WILL RESTRICT THE ESTABLISHMENT
OF OUTFLOW CHANNELS, MITIGATING THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND THERE IS IMPROVING CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72 A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION WEAKENING THE NORTHERN STEERING RIDGE. DURING THIS
PERIOD THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD AND GUIDE THE
SYSTEM ON A TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 120. THE PASSING TROUGH
WILL INDUCE A DEGREE OF VWS RESULTING IN SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM AROUND TAU 96. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
GUIDANCE BEYOND TAU 48 LARGELY DUE TO THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION
OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STEERING RIDGE. COAMPS,
GFS, AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH AND
ERODING THE EASTERN RIDGE SUFFICIENTLY ALLOWING IT TO ACCELERATE TY
NORU NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TROUGH. ECMFW, NAVGEM AND THE JAPANESE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK DUE TO A STRONGER EASTERN
RIDGE AND FAILS TO BE CAPTURED BY THE TROUGH. DUE TO THE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

TY 1705 (Noru)
Issued at 09:50 UTC, 30 July 2017

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 30 July>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N23°00' (23.0°)
E141°30' (141.5°)
Direction and speed of movement SSW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 80 km (45 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 21 UTC, 30 July>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°55' (22.9°)
E141°00' (141.0°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 150 km (80 NM)

<Forecast for 09 UTC, 31 July>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°20' (23.3°)
E140°20' (140.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 200 km (110 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 1 August>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N24°20' (24.3°)
E138°50' (138.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 310 km (170 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 2 August>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°25' (25.4°)
E138°40' (138.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 310 km (170 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 440 km (240 NM)


Units:
1 kt (knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1 nm (nautical mile) = 1.852 km

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

TXPQ23 KNES 300950
TCSWNP
CCA

A. 07W (NORU)

B. 30/0830Z

C. 23.1N

D. 141.5E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CLASSIFICATION CORRECTED FOR LINE C. THE SYSTEM IS
CHARACTERIZED WITH AN LG EYE TEMPERATURE AND A W SURROUNDING RING
TEMPERATURE WITH B EMBEDDED YIELDS A DT=5.5. MET=5.0. PT=5.5. FT IS
BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGES IN FT TO 1.5 IN 12 HOURS. THE 6HR
AVG DT WAS 5.0 IN 6 HOURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SANDUSKY

TPPN10 PGTW 300925

A. TROPICAL STORM 07W (NORU)

B. 30/0900Z

C. 23.04N

D. 141.50E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.5. MET AND PT
YIELD A 4.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BERMEA

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 JUL 2017 Time : 094000 UTC
Lat : 22:55:31 N Lon : 141:26:15 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.9 / 964.8mb/ 87.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.9 5.8 5.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : -27.2C Cloud Region Temp : -71.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.8 degrees

****************************************************

[euro6208]

It seems to be going annular or is it?

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Very bright now,intensifying Typhoon.

[Kingarabian]

It seems to be going annular or is it?

[img]http://i.imgur.com/qeD0cJB.gif[/ig]

Indeed. Almost no banding on microwave. They're so damn pretty. Noru finally living to its hype.

[euro6208]

Oh god here we go with JTWC and JMA trying to catchup with this.

[Kingarabian]

Oh god here we go with JTWC and JMA trying to catchup with this.

Agonizing to say the least. It's almost equivalent to a major hurricane and these guys still have it as a tropical storm.

[euro6208]

Oh god here we go with JTWC and JMA trying to catchup with this.

Agonizing to say the least. It's almost equivalent to a major hurricane and these guys still have it as a tropical storm.

Actually they both upgraded it to a typhoon. Cat 1 to say the least.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.07.2017

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NORU ANALYSED POSITION : 23.9N 141.6E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.07.2017 23.9N 141.6E STRONG
12UTC 30.07.2017 23.0N 141.1E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.07.2017 22.5N 140.4E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.07.2017 23.0N 140.3E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.08.2017 23.7N 139.3E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.08.2017 24.1N 138.5E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.08.2017 24.6N 138.1E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.08.2017 25.4N 138.2E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.08.2017 25.9N 137.8E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2017 26.2N 137.1E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2017 26.1N 135.3E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2017 25.5N 133.4E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.08.2017 25.0N 131.9E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fx/fxxt03.egrr..txt

[euro6208]

EURO peaks this at 931 mb and slams Tokyo.

[euro6208]

The GFS runs has been entertaining to watch. It seems to interact with another possible typhoon causing it to move back westward or even looping it back to where it came from.

[Kingarabian]

The GFS runs has been entertaining to watch. It seems to interact with another possible typhoon causing it to move back westward or even looping it back to where it came from.

Potentially, that's a lot of downwelling.

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 JUL 2017 Time : 111000 UTC
Lat : 22:52:09 N Lon : 141:30:44 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 955.3mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.9 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +5.1C Cloud Region Temp : -69.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.7 degrees

****************************************************

[NotoSans]

Looks like a 100-knot typhoon to me right now. I'm expecting a peak intensity similar to what Lionrock attained last year.

[euro6208]

Eye warming very rapidly.