ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Euro track would mean heavy rain and flooding along the gulf coast from Louisiana to Mississippi/Alabama and the western Florida panhandle.

[stormhunter7]

is it my eyes, looks like the shear overall is calming down in the GOM and above 90l?

[tailgater]

Euro looks like it is back to a similar solution to a couple days ago. turning west near the coast. this run pretty keeps a somewhat coherent main circulation is slower allowing for things to change. interesting. the model spread widens a little. waiting for ensemble members now.

Looks like the N.O. and Miss.Ala.Fla gulf coast all will get some nasty weather for the big weekend if that verifies

[cycloneye]

@TropicalTidbits
The period of heavy rainfall coming for the north gulf coast may be prolonged, as there is no longwave trough over the CONUS to whisk Invest #90L away. Details uncertain, but some areas could see significant potential for flooding late this week and early next week. Be prepared.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/998996777029324800

[Aric Dunn]

ridging builds back in after another 24 hours and is pushing back to the coast. again euro back to a similar solution from a couple days ago.


well not quite.. but pretty close.. any slower with the northward movement and it may not make it inland for days

[Aric Dunn]

@TropicalTidbits
The period of heavy rainfall coming for the north gulf coast may be prolonged, as there is no longwave trough over the CONUS to whisk Invest #90L away. Details uncertain, but some areas could see significant potential for flooding late this week and early next week. Be prepared.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/998996777029324800

yeah, exactly... the euro pushing 90l inland than back offshore.. going to be very interesting.

well almost offshore. still a lot of options on the table..

[boca]

I’m now thinking I won’t have to cancel my beach plans this weekend here in South Florida

[stormlover2013]

yeash until we get a center then we can see what the models will say but that's why I look at the overall upper level pattern, Haven't had a chance to look today but DUNN what does EURO, ICON, CMC,JMA, GFS show with the ridge and etc

[stormlover2013]

man you just never know, I mean GFS could be so who knows, EURO could be right who knows, just need a center and models can clamp on and be consistent.

[Kazmit]

is it my eyes, looks like the shear overall is calming down in the GOM and above 90l?

Yes, it seems like it.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

Location: 17.5°N 87.0°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb

[cycloneye]

18z SHIP output:

Code: Select all

 * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED,      OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL902018  05/22/18  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    26    27    27    29    30    32    34    35    35    38    37    40
V (KT) LAND       25    26    27    27    29    30    32    34    35    35    38    35    38
V (KT) LGEM       25    25    25    24    24    23    23    23    23    22    22    23    22
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        20    23    23    20    21    20    15    20    20    28    19    25    20
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     3     0     0     1     0     0     0     2    -1     0     0     4     3
SHEAR DIR        274   264   269   268   267   275   282   253   249   254   258   256   244
SST (C)         28.8  28.9  28.9  28.9  28.9  28.8  28.7  28.6  28.5  28.2  27.9  26.4  25.5
POT. INT. (KT)   146   146   145   145   145   145   144   143   143   140   138   121   113
ADJ. POT. INT.   132   131   129   128   128   131   131   130   133   133   135   115   105
200 MB T (C)   -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -54.3 -54.3
200 MB VXT (C)   0.3   0.4   0.5   0.5   0.4   0.3   0.4   0.6   0.7   0.4   0.7   0.2   0.0
TH_E DEV (C)      10    10     9     7     9     8     9     8     9     7     7     6     6
700-500 MB RH     59    64    66    64    64    67    68    72    71    74    76    75    69
MODEL VTX (KT)     7     8     7     6     7     7     7     8     8     9    10    10    12
850 MB ENV VOR    55    54    59    49    52    48    65    89    90    75    79    20     9
200 MB DIV        50    39    38    38    46    23    45    49    69    77    97    38    76
700-850 TADV       0     0    -1    -2    -1     0     0     0     3     9    17    20    14
LAND (KM)        114    91    84    74    74   107   168   160   214   324    44   158   286
LAT (DEG N)     17.5  17.5  17.4  17.4  17.4  17.5  17.4  17.3  17.8  19.1  21.6  25.1  28.9
LONG(DEG W)     87.0  87.3  87.4  87.5  87.5  87.1  86.4  85.5  84.6  83.0  81.2  78.8  77.7
STM SPEED (KT)     4     2     1     0     1     3     4     4     8    12    19    20    20
HEAT CONTENT      40    39    39    39    39    40    44    44    45    51    34     4     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/  5      CX,CY:  -4/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  657  (MEAN=618)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  19.8 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  42.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):            0.1

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   1.   1.   3.   6.  11.  17.  21.  25.  28.  30.  31.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -2.  -4.  -8. -11. -13. -14.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ    -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.   1.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR    -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -7.  -8.  -8.  -9.  -9.
  PERSISTENCE           -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.   0.   0.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH         -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -5.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -3.  -1.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   0.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION    -0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES   -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT    -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.   2.   2.   4.   5.   7.   9.  10.  10.  13.  12.  15.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   25. LAT, LON:   17.5    87.0

      ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902018 INVEST     05/22/18  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -49.5  to   33.0       0.60         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    21.3      30.1  to    2.9       0.32         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    39.2       0.0  to  156.2       0.25         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :  9999.0       2.4  to   -3.0     999.00         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   999.0      36.6  to    2.8     999.00         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    25.0      22.5  to  121.0       0.07         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   104.5      28.4  to  139.6       0.68         999.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    42.2     -29.7  to  181.5       0.34         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):    72.4     961.4  to  -67.1       0.86         999.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:    47.1     100.0  to    0.0       0.53         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
   
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
    Logistic:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
    Bayesian:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
   Consensus:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902018 INVEST     05/22/18  18 UTC         ##
   ##         ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902018 INVEST     05/22/2018  18 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
      TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  25    26    27    27    29    30    32    34    35    35    38    35    38
 18HR AGO           25    24    25    25    27    28    30    32    33    33    36    33    36
 12HR AGO           25    22    21    21    23    24    26    28    29    29    32    29    32
  6HR AGO           25    19    16    15    17    18    20    22    23    23    26    23    26
      NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
  IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
  IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

[Dylan]

Just posted this on my Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/DylanFedericoWx

Update on Tropical Disturbance 90L

Invest 90L remains a disorganized broad area of low pressure in the western Caribbean Sea this afternoon, though the large area of rotation is better defined compared to this time yesterday. Most of the shower and thunderstorms associated with the disturbance remains well to the north and east of the center, and is expected to remain that way throughout its lifecycle. As for the next few days, thoughts have not changed. 90L will slowly lift northward into the east-central Gulf of Mexico by Thursday afternoon.

Once 90L reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, it will find sea surface temperatures above 80F, which is warm enough to support further organization into tropical depression one, or even tropical storm Alberto. With that said, there are several limiting factors for strengthening. An upper level trough will position itself over the Gulf of Mexico while 90L moves northward though there. This is where the tropical disturbance will encounter wind shear, which could cause some dry air entrainment as well. This will limit the disturbance’s potential, and keep it lopsided, with the worst rain and wind on its north and eastern side of the center.

Despite this, guidance indicates that conditions will be marginal enough for it to gain enough organization become a tropical depression, or even tropical storm. 90L will be then steered northward along the western periphery of the Bermuda high towards the north-central gulf coast by this weekend, with guidance showing landfall from the Florida Panhandle, to Southeast Louisiana. The outlier is the American Model (GFS) which sends 90L into the Florida Peninsula, but its known for its eastern bias. After landfall, there are some hints that steering currents could weaken, causing 90L to slow down, or even stall near the coast or just inland, which would cause significant flooding concerns.

90L is expected to be a weak tropical system when it makes landfall later this weekend, with the vast majority of rain and wind displaced on its eastern side. So, even if the center of the cone is pointed at you, you must account for the fact that the worst will be to your east. If you’re west of the track, you will be on the dry side, and will see very little impact. Heavy rainfall and coastal flooding are the primary threats associated with this system. 90L stalling or meandering near its landfall location could complicate things significantly, but it’s still too early to know for sure. Stay tuned for more updates!

[Michele B]

I'll be in Texas all weekend, so it's irrelevant to me what happens. But I'd give the consensus of models showing the center coming up (and possibly meandering either on or offshore) somewhere between the Mouth of the Mississippi River and Panama City way more credence that the GFS. For all of you leaning toward the GFS's solutions the last few days, including pro-mets, you already know when it's GFS vs. almost everything else that the likelihood of it being correct is remote. It happens, but not often. Obviously with the setup, the majority of the weather would be to the east. So depending on where the center was and how strong the upper jet is depends on who gets the weather. Eastern Gulf and Florida look most likely to me to get the most significant rainfall. It's not a center event, so it really doesn't matter where the center comes ashore unless you are east of it (or unless the pattern was to change and the system was to slow up).

You're absolutely right, it's already dumping tons of rain.

Got 10+" in our location (south central FL, near Avon Park/Lake Placid) already, and we've got the rest of the week for it to make its move.

[Steve]

I'll be in Texas all weekend, so it's irrelevant to me what happens. But I'd give the consensus of models showing the center coming up (and possibly meandering either on or offshore) somewhere between the Mouth of the Mississippi River and Panama City way more credence that the GFS. For all of you leaning toward the GFS's solutions the last few days, including pro-mets, you already know when it's GFS vs. almost everything else that the likelihood of it being correct is remote. It happens, but not often. Obviously with the setup, the majority of the weather would be to the east. So depending on where the center was and how strong the upper jet is depends on who gets the weather. Eastern Gulf and Florida look most likely to me to get the most significant rainfall. It's not a center event, so it really doesn't matter where the center comes ashore unless you are east of it (or unless the pattern was to change and the system was to slow up).

You're absolutely right, it's already dumping tons of rain.

Got 10+" in our location (south central FL, near Avon Park/Lake Placid) already, and we've got the rest of the week for it to make its move.

Damn. That's a lot of rain Michele. How recent are you measuring from?

[AJC3]

I'll be in Texas all weekend, so it's irrelevant to me what happens. But I'd give the consensus of models showing the center coming up (and possibly meandering either on or offshore) somewhere between the Mouth of the Mississippi River and Panama City way more credence that the GFS. For all of you leaning toward the GFS's solutions the last few days, including pro-mets, you already know when it's GFS vs. almost everything else that the likelihood of it being correct is remote. It happens, but not often. Obviously with the setup, the majority of the weather would be to the east. So depending on where the center was and how strong the upper jet is depends on who gets the weather. Eastern Gulf and Florida look most likely to me to get the most significant rainfall. It's not a center event, so it really doesn't matter where the center comes ashore unless you are east of it (or unless the pattern was to change and the system was to slow up).

Since I'm one of the pro-mets in the "closer to the GFS" camp, I'm compelled to respond to this. Basically I'll just reiterate that those events where the GFS has done better as an outlier have been similar, if not nearly identical "high-shear" setups to what we have out there right now. Two of these (93L i.e. the October 2011 "No-name storm", and Debby in 2012) have already been pointed out. Yes, the oft-inferior GFS has a big problem with spurious spot lows developing from convective feedback, for which it gets well-earned ridicule on here. However, center reformations seen in weak, sheared TC's follow the downshear redevelopment process that the GFS is depicting. And you can't discount the fact that the ECM did, in those two high-shear cases, erroneously develop (or stack) the surface low beneath the mid and upper level low/trough. This is why, as I said in a post I made two days ago, that I didn't by the ECM solution of a more coherent TC moving into LA.

Will the GFS wind up being closer to what actually takes place? Given the upper wind profile, I think it's a reasonable assumption. Could the ECM verify? Sure, it could. However, there's little doubt in my mind that BE (divergent jet forced ascent) processes will play a role in lowering surface pressures over the Gulf and this will occur east of the mid-upper level low, rather than directly beneath it. I think what most folks here (including my fellow blue-taggers) agree upon, is that this will be a sloppy, right sided system. It seems that where we differ the most is just how far east the precip shield with the highest QPF will be. To be honest, I wouldn't mind being wrong in this case. If the heavy precip swath stays out over the eastern Gulf...hey, we'll take it here on the peninsula.

[AJC3]

As an aside...here's the 8-day rainfall we've had in our CWA through 8 AM this morning, which includes the first cut off low event over the eastern GOMEX that commenced the weekend before last. Check out some of those totals over Martin County, the southernmost that we serve...

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KMLB 222042
PNSMLB
FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-230000-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
442 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

...May 13-22, 2018 Rainfall Totals...

...Select rainfall totals for the past week beginning at 8 AM EDT
May 13, 2018, and ending at 8AM EDT May 22, 2018...

A rainy start to the wet season and resulting daily afternoon
showers and thunderstorms have led to a surge of rainfall totals
over the past several days. Widespread values between 6 to 9 inches,
with isolated spots of 15 inches or greater have been observed
across east central Florida. The highest observed rainfall amounts
so far have been in Martin County and extreme southeastern St. Lucie
County where numerous reports in excess of a foot of rain since May
13th, with 4 to 6 inches falling this morning alone across
southeastern St. Lucie county and northeastern Martin county. This
wet pattern is likely to continue for the next several days, if not
longer.


Station Name            Rainfall    Station ID  Provider

...Brevard County...
Titusville 5.9 NNW     10.20"       FL-BV-74    CoCoRaHS
Mims 3.3 SW             9.72"       FL-BV-86    CoCoRaHS
Melbourne 4.6 NNW       9.60"       FL-BV-77    CoCoRaHS
Palm Shores 1.4 W       8.20"       FL-BV-2     CoCoRaHS
Palm Bay 3.2 S          7.85"       FL-BV-72    CoCoRaHS
Micco 1.3 NW            7.66"       FL-BV-28    CoCoRaHS
Satellite Beach 2.0 N   7.18"       FL-BV-92    CoCoRaHS
Melbourne WFO           6.83"       MLBF1       COOP
Cocoa 2.6 WNW           6.65"       FL-BV-23    CoCoRaHS

...Indian River County...
Sebastian 0.7 NE        8.62"       FL-IR-46    CoCoRaHS
Vero Beach 5.3 W        7.75"       FL-IR-36    CoCoRaHS
Sebastian 1.7 SSE       7.68"       FL-IR-22    CoCoRaHS
Vero Beach 3.4 W        7.21"       FL-IR-24    CoCoRaHS
Vero Beach 4.3 W        6.25"       FL-IR-40    CoCoRaHS
Vero Beach 2.5 S        6.06"       FL-IR-27    CoCoRaHS
Vero Beach Airport      5.39"       KVRB        ASOS

...Lake County...
Clermont                9.63"       CLRF1       COOP
Okahumpka               9.53"       KHPF1       FAWN
Astatula 1.0 E          8.08"       FL-LK-25    CoCoRaHS
Leesburg Airport        6.78"       KLEE        ASOS
Oakland 3.4 WSW         6.54"       FL-LK-27    CoCoRahs
Umatilla                6.51"       UMLF1       FAWN
Paisley                 6.50"       TS959       RAWS
Lisbon                  6.41"       LSBF1       COOP
Mt. Plymouth            6.18"       PLTF1       COOP
Groveland 1.7 E         5.11"       FL-LK-3     CoCoRaHS

...Martin County...
Palm City 3.1 NW        17.25"      FL-MT-21    CoCoRaHS
Palm City 1.4 NW        17.12"      FL-MT-31    CoCoRaHS
Jensen Beach 2.2 NW     16.41"      FL-MT-19    CoCoRaHS
Palm City 4.0 SW        15.21"      FL-MT-1     CoCoRaHS
Stuart 8.4 S            14.55"      FL-MT-35    CoCoRaHS
Port Salerno            14.47"      PTSF1       COOP
Stuart 6.9 SSW          14.13"      FL-MT-17    CoCoRaHS
Indiantown 0.4 SW       12.01"      FL-MT-26    CoCoRaHS
Stuart WTP              11.71"      STRF1       COOP
Jupiter 4.0 N           11.25"      FL-MT-33    CoCoRaHS
Stuart 6 W              10.37"      TPKF1       SFWMD

...Okeechobee County...
N Lake O - Taylor Creek 8.38"       TLCF1       SFWMD
Okee Field Station      8.08"       KEFF1       SFWMD
Okeechobee County Arpt  8.01"       KOBE        AWOS
Okeechobee              7.39"       OKSF1       FAWN
Taylor Creek Conserve   7.01"       WLNF1       SFWMD

...Orange County...
Apopka                  7.69"       POPF1       FAWN
Windermere              7.66"       ORWF1       COOP
Orlando 2.2 WNW         7.66"       FL-OR-40    CoCoRaHS
Ocoee 1.4 N             7.27"       FL-OR-34    CoCoRaHS
Bay Lake 4.1 WSW        6.78"       FL-OR-35    CoCoRaHS
Orlando 7.2 WNW         6.74"       FL-OR-33    CoCoRaHS
Orange 11.2 NE          6.03"       FL-OR-23    CoCoRaHS
Union Park 3.8 ESE      5.86"       FL-OR-31    CoCoRaHS
Winter Garden 2.8 SSE   5.84"       FL-OR-47    CoCoRaHS
Orlando Executive Arpt  5.51"       KORL        ASOS
Shingle Creek           4.92"       SCGF1       SFWMD

...Osceola County...
Maxcy Property North    7.43"       YEHF1       SFWMD
Kenansville             6.60"       KENF1       COOP
Lake Tohopekaliga       5.72"       SWOF1       SFWMD
Kenansville North       5.44"       KNVF1       FAWN
Yeehaw Junction         4.75"       KSAF1       SFWMD

...Saint Lucie County...
Port St. Lucie 4.0 NE   14.02"       FL-SL-19    CoCoRaHS
Port St. Lucie S-49     12.98"       PSFL1       SFWMD
10 Mile Creek           12.67"       TMWF1       SFWMD
Savannas Preserve       12.67"       SVWF1       SFWMD
Tradition 5.6 W         12.47"       FL-SL-17    CoCoRaHS
Port St. Lucie 2.4 N    11.72"       FL-SL-22    CoCoRaHS
Fort Pierce 2.8 SSE     11.61"       FL-SL-11    CoCoRaHS
Fort Pierce 8 W         10.91"       NCSF1       SFWMD
Nettles Island          10.08"       NETF1       COOP
St. Lucie West           8.59"       SLWF1       FAWN
Treasure Coast Arpt      7.47"       KFPR        ASOS

...Seminole County...
Chuluota 0.9 N          7.65"       FL-SM-8     CoCoRaHS
Altamonte Springs 1.4SE 7.01"       FL-SM-27    CoCoRaHS
Winter Springs 2.3 E    6.47"       FL-SL-30    CoCoRaHS
Sanford Airport         5.97"       KSFB        ASOS
Oviedo 4.0 W            5.35"       FL-SM-12    CoCoRaHS   
Sanford 1.9 WNW         4.53"       FL-SM-18    CoCoRaHS

...Volusia County...
Oak Hill 2.8 WSW        9.34"       FL-VL-38    CoCoRaHS
DeLand 5.7 NW           8.96"       FL-VL-9     CoCoRaHS
Pierson                 8.56"       EPRF1       FAWN
DeLand 4.5 NW           8.53"       FL-VL-3     CoCoRaHS
Port Orange 5.0 WSW     8.26"       FL-VL-88    CoCoRaHS
Ormond Beach 2.6 SE     8.04"       FL-VL-73    CoCoRaHS
Lake Woodruff           7.97"       LWQF1       RAWS
DeLand 2.0 W            7.39"       FL-VL-21    CoCoRaHS
DeLand 1.4 WSW          7.30"       FL-VL-36    CoCoRaHS
Daytona Beach Airport   7.28"       KDAB        ASOS
DeLeon Springs 1.6 ESE  7.20"       FL-VL-86    CoCoRaHS
New Smyrna Beach 3.9 W  7.02"       FL-VL-77    CoCoRaHS
DeBary 2.5 W            6.28"       FL-VL-17    CoCoRaHS


Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.


$$

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Since at this point we really don't have a true COC it's anybody's guess which direction it goes. But as has been said here it will be a lopsided system to the NE side. That being said I need to run over from Miami to Naples Friday evening then turn right around and head back. Is there any possible way to know how much and how heavy the rain might be by Friday late afternoon.

[Ian2401]

Looks as if the "center" of circulation (if you could even call it that) is in a small pocket of decreasing wind shear, with another pocket of decreasing shear just north if it.

[Aric Dunn]