ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

The 12z GFS/EURO basically don't develop 98L through day 4-5, but NHC keeps increasing odds, so they obviously have data/tools to see beyond the GFS/EURO runs...

They will probably start going the other way tonight. Reliable models trending weaker. I was not expecting 80-90 this afternoon.

[AutoPenalti]

The 12z GFS/EURO basically don't develop 98L through day 4-5, but NHC keeps increasing odds, so they obviously have data/tools to see beyond the GFS/EURO runs...

They will probably start going the other way tonight. Reliable models trending weaker. I was not expecting 80-90 this afternoon.

You really think they are all of the sudden going the other way? I'm 100% sure they rely on data other than globals.

[chris_fit]

98L seems to be organizing a bit to my eyes... Has a really nice spin to it now.

[SFLcane]

The 12z GFS/EURO basically don't develop 98L through day 4-5, but NHC keeps increasing odds, so they obviously have data/tools to see beyond the GFS/EURO runs...

They will probably start going the other way tonight. Reliable models trending weaker. I was not expecting 80-90 this afternoon.

You really think they are all of the sudden going the other way? I'm 100% sure they rely on data other than globals.

Based on today’s reliable model consensus they could. The trend has been weaker. More then likely if nothing changes I expect some back tracking.

[shiny-pebble]

The east side is coming a lot closer to the west, are they merging this early on? Or is it just a short term thing?

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[Jr0d]

98L seems to be organizing a bit to my eyes... Has a really nice spin to it now.

https://i.imgur.com/OmHtv33.gif

Looking close to TD genesis with my amatuer eyes too. Maybe at 5pm they will classify.

In theory a trackable system should help the computer guidance but Im doubtful given how poorly the big 2 have done so far this season.

[plasticup]

98L seems to be organizing a bit to my eyes... Has a really nice spin to it now.

https://i.imgur.com/OmHtv33.gif

Yes, absolutely. Starting to close off. Not there yet but we could see a TD soon.

[tiger_deF]

IMO this is probably the best 98L (at least the western lobe of it) has ever looked, so of course operational model support drops like a sack of rocks

[psyclone]

We are at the time of the year where disturbances tend to find ways to survive and ultimately develop/thrive. That's probably going to be the case for both 97 and 98, recent model uncertainty notwithstanding. they both have plenty of warm water and time ahead of them. High development odds from the NHC make sense.

[cainjamin]

Still looks like a ways away from TD status to my amateur eyes. You can clearly see two mid-level rotations in both west and east blobs, but the lower level clouds aren't very convincing of a closed circulation. I think it will still take another day or two for the two ends of the disturbance to merge before we see a bonafide TD.

[Hurricaneman]

IMO this is probably the best 98L (at least the western lobe of it) has ever looked, so of course operational model support drops like a sack of rocks

This could qualify as a depression now, but to be honest the Canadian model has been the best with cyclogenesis this year and most all other models have been complete trash

The GFS and Euro ensembles paint a far more dangerous picture with 98L so I would go with their ensembles right now as they seem to have a much better grasp of conditions over the operational counterparts

Also this seems to be coming together quicker than I thought it would, wouldn’t be surprised to see a tropical storm by Thursday which would mean a complete failure of the models again

[Kazmit]

The 12z GFS/EURO basically don't develop 98L through day 4-5, but NHC keeps increasing odds, so they obviously have data/tools to see beyond the GFS/EURO runs...

They will probably start going the other way tonight. Reliable models trending weaker. I was not expecting 80-90 this afternoon.

"Reliable" is not the best word to describe the performance of models this year.

[GCANE]

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

[AutoPenalti]

Western lobe seems to be showing banding features but the eastern lobe is fighting for the energy.

[OURAGAN]

Best track 11,3N / 41W

[TallyTracker]

98L seems to be organizing a bit to my eyes... Has a really nice spin to it now.

https://i.imgur.com/OmHtv33.gif

The western circulation looks very close to TD status. Cyclogenesis will likely occur soon.

What I find interesting is the eastern circulation is also gaining momentum. From the look of things, it would not surprise me to see a second cyclone develop.

Unless they take different paths quickly, they will likely interfere with each other. Or one will just absorb the other and just keep on going!

[AxaltaRacing24]

They will probably start going the other way tonight. Reliable models trending weaker. I was not expecting 80-90 this afternoon.

You really think they are all of the sudden going the other way? I'm 100% sure they rely on data other than globals.

Based on today’s reliable model consensus they could. The trend has been weaker. More then likely if nothing changes I expect some back tracking.

i don't think this wave that is slowly developing cares what the gfs and euro are saying about it. also, the nhc has several other tools we cannot see. it's 80/90 for a reason right now.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1295800199999258625

[HurricaneEnzo]

I really just don't trust any models at this point. Looks like it currently has decent conditions to work with. West blob is definitely looking more organized. Not a lot of SAL, not a ton of wind shear. I think this forms sooner rather than later but that is just my 2 cents

[sma10]

They will probably start going the other way tonight. Reliable models trending weaker. I was not expecting 80-90 this afternoon.

You really think they are all of the sudden going the other way? I'm 100% sure they rely on data other than globals.

Based on today’s reliable model consensus they could. The trend has been weaker. More then likely if nothing changes I expect some back tracking.

They will go with their eyes in real-time over the models 10/10 times