2021 WPAC Season

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

GFS still liking an extravagant end to the month.

[euro6208]

Very strong KW over the WPAC ahead of a strong MJO.

[euro6208]

In response, GFS develops 3 to 4 TC's during the Month.

EURO nada.

[Hayabusa]

TSR predicts Northwest Pacific typhoon activity in 2021 will be slightly below the long-term norm and close to the 2011-2020 norm. However, the uncertainties associated with this outlook are large and the forecast skill at this extended range is historically low.
There is a 18% probability that the 2021 NW Pacific typhoon season ACE index will be above-average (defined as an ACE index value in the upper tercile historically (>326)), a 40% likelihood it will be near normal (defined as an ACE index value in the middle tercile historically (238 to 326) and a 42% chance it will be below-normal (defined as an ACE index value in the lower tercile historically (<238)). The 56-year period 1965-2020 is used for climatology.

https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... ay2021.pdf

[euro6208]

Damn i wish that forecast won't materialize or else the Philippines will get blown away by another incredibly intense monster.

Surigae was enough good thing it didn't hit land at peak.

[euro6208]

Despite the strong KW and impending MJO, GFS keeps the 3-4 systems weak and struggling to organize.

That says alot.

[Hayabusa]

Interestingly there's no FE (forecast error) for 2021 unlike their previous forecasts, hmmm

E.g. May (initial) forecast for 2020

[TyphoonNara]

Interestingly there's no FE (forecast error) for 2021 unlike their previous forecasts, hmmm
https://i.imgur.com/0mIeuOr.png
E.g. May (initial) forecast for 2020
https://i.imgur.com/mmCrkSg.png

I think the forecast error is wrongly placed next to the climatological mean instead of the forecast.

[euro6208]

The world's most active basin trying to wake up.

[euro6208]

Farther west, there has been modest support in the dynamical models for TC development over the Phillipine Sea during weeks 1 and 2 tied to Rossby wave activity predicted in the region. However, this support has diminished in the latest ensemble guidance and TC tools, and probabilities have become too low to include corresponding hazard areas in the outlook.

[euro6208]

At least EURO agrees with GFS on a LPA around the 22nd near the Philippines. GFS further strengthens it.

[euro6208]

Woah

00z



06z

[JW-_-]

[euro6208]

18Z deepens the first system to 968mb and the second system to 949mb.

[Hayabusa]

Yeah I think starting next week (or week 3) is again something to watch for TC development, before Surigae formed the front end of the MJO envelope was already way into the CPAC, but the current MJO is just starting to enter the Pacific, give it a week more or less of MJO enhancing convection for a TC to form.

[euro6208]

EURO on board with GFS's Philippine Sea TC.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1387798348464283655

[euro6208]

150 hours out, peaks at 936mb.

[euro6208]

Timeframe closing in.