Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean (Is Invest 99L)

[ROCK]

I mean, that only gives a few days notice though. Not great to hear that. Also, you posting this will stir up an ant pile in Houston.

lol...got to love this guy. I met him once at a conference. Sharp as a tack.

Shouldn't need notice to prepare. Already should have been done a few months prior.

I'm just referring to businesses and other entities that might evacuate. Not a lot of time for those decisions to be made if the system forms on Saturday and makes landfall on Monday-ish.

12Z Euro...so much for "consistency" with any of these models.

https://i.imgur.com/mhepirR.png

oh I know...anything thats get into the SGOM we all have about 36-48hrs to either get out or ride it out. 12Z EURO doesn't surprise e at all.

[IcyTundra]

Looks like I will be staying up late for the 00z runs for the foreseeable future.....

[jaguars_22]

Looks like the icon, gfs, may be showing some small system try to get together out in front of this storm before landfall.. I have a feeling models will begin shifting south again and put south Texas in the crosshairs… I’m in Victoria so not liking the direct hit

[lsuhurricane]

Looks like the icon, gfs, may be showing some small system try to get together out in front of this storm before landfall.. I have a feeling models will begin shifting south again and put south Texas in the crosshairs… I’m in Victoria so not liking the direct hit

That small system (inverted trough) is actually producing the opposite. Hence the recent northern trend. Will serve to slingshot the Caribbean system further north.

[jaguars_22]

Yes very odd! I just don’t expect that small system out in front to be there much longer… anyone know where that small system comes from?

[aspen]

The HWRF-P run for 97L shows the northern lobe of 99L winning out, and the storm passing through the Yucatán channel, just like the CMC and ICON solutions.

[lsuhurricane]

[ColdMiser123]

Euro is definitely on the northeast side of its EPS spread, but the EPS is also a clear shift NE from 0z.

[jabman98]

Gassed up my car at lunch here in Houston. Plenty of empty pumps, no lines. I'm guessing people here aren't really aware of this potential storm yet.

[HoustonFrog]

Gassed up my car at lunch here in Houston. Plenty of empty pumps, no lines. I'm guessing people here aren't really aware of this potential storm yet.

Probably less than a couple thousand people who have any idea. I don’t personally know a single person who keeps up with the tropics until it’s relatively imminent (2-4 days)

[SoupBone]

Gassed up my car at lunch here in Houston. Plenty of empty pumps, no lines. I'm guessing people here aren't really aware of this potential storm yet.

Outside of weather geeks, there's not much to talk about with no center of circulation. The models are all over the place. By Thursday, you'll see people starting to pay more attention.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Tidbits has a meso floater.



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[IcyTundra]

Gassed up my car at lunch here in Houston. Plenty of empty pumps, no lines. I'm guessing people here aren't really aware of this potential storm yet.

Same here went out and made some other preparations too. Want to get out ahead of the general public on this and if the forecast worsens you can bet there will be mass panic across the Houston area this weekend which is something I don't want to deal with.

[Rgv20]

12z ECMWF Ensembles....Wow is a mess

[UTSARoadrunner4]

I wonder what it would take for this to become an Invest already…

[SoupBone]

12z ECMWF Ensembles....Wow is a mess

https://i.imgur.com/FGX6vmg.png

https://i.imgur.com/UgIGijx.png

Well that certainly clears things up...

Noting: It has even weaker members into Louisiana and all along the Texas southern coast.

[aspen]

I wonder what it would take for this to become an Invest already…

This wave is expected to create a new area of low pressure when it interacts with a Kelvin Wave in a few days. This is probably why it hasn’t been tagged as an invest yet, but once the new low forms, then it’ll become the dreaded 99L.

[Nederlander]

Looking at 500mb, the Euro shows weaker GC ridging, GFS stronger, and ICON a decent compromise.

Will be interesting to see who’s right, but either way, it’s got a hot tub in front of it.

[grapealcoholic]

I wonder what it would take for this to become an Invest already…

This wave is expected to create a new area of low pressure when it interacts with a Kelvin Wave in a few days. This is probably why it hasn’t been tagged as an invest yet, but once the new low forms, then it’ll become the dreaded 99L.

What is so special about 99L?

[Kohlecane]

I know this sounds crazy but I'm interested to see what the HWRF/HMON do with this once it gets designated.