ATL: MINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[robbielyn]

off topic but mark sudduth gave storm2k a nice shout out on his youtube video today!! mentioned cycloneye.

[grapealcoholic]

Solid winds of 7.8 kts out of the NW with this buoy at 22/94

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42055

[Nimbus]

Solid winds of 7.8 kts out of the NW with this buoy at 22/94

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42055

Surface winds are still out of the west 260 degrees at the Tampa buoy 42003 which probably means the upper level trough is still dominating there with shear.

[cycloneye]

50%.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased somewhat this evening over
the south-central Gulf of Mexico in association with a surface
trough and an upper-level disturbance. The system is expected to
move slowly northeastward over the central and northeastern Gulf of
Mexico during the next couple of days. Upper-level winds are
currently only marginally conducive for development, but they are
forecast to become slightly more favorable by late Wednesday, and a
tropical or subtropical depression could form as the system nears
the northern Gulf coast Wednesday night or Thursday. The
disturbance is then expected to cross the southeastern United
States, and some slight additional development will be possible
after it emerges off the southeastern United States coast late this
week. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall will be
possible across portions of the Florida panhandle and southern
Georgia on Wednesday and Thursday, with localized flooding possible.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[wxman57]

Stewart (NHC) wants to upgrade it on tomorrow evening's shift. Nothing at the surface now, and only 24 hrs before it reaches FL. The only model that indicates a closed low remains the GFS. Just some rain for FL/GA, that's it.

[grapealcoholic]

Station 42055 now up to 10 kts from the N

[AlphaToOmega]

Stewart (NHC) wants to upgrade it on tomorrow evening's shift. Nothing at the surface now, and only 24 hrs before it reaches FL. The only model that indicates a closed low remains the GFS. Just some rain for FL/GA, that's it.

The 12Z CMC run indicates a closed low at hour 72.

[grapealcoholic]

Models miss storms all the time in warm waters -- good example right now in the Pacific basin

[robbielyn]

I don’t get why the cone is bent towards tampa bay if the storm is going to hit mexico beach and headend towards jax/GA area. the way it looks now it looks like it’s bent to hit big bend. yes i know don’t look at center of cone but it does give general direction

[grapealcoholic]

Watching this thunderstorm off N coast of Yucatán. Looks to be sustaining itself thus far

[Sciencerocks]

[grapealcoholic]

Lightning firing near the core

[Teban54]

Looks like a little hot tower is popping near whether the center may be consolidating:

[grapealcoholic]

Looks like a little hot tower is popping near whether the center may be consolidating:
https://i.ibb.co/2vSZpJB/goes16-vis-swir-91-L-202109080152.gif

This should get interesting

[Dean4Storms]

It might barely pull off development by this evening just before landfall, a weak TS at most.

[Nimbus]

Low level core we have been following seems to be moving pretty fast and should be inland east of Dauphin island before it becomes much of a problem. Fast forward motion limits flooding but the beaches are likely to get some pretty strong wind gusts just east of landfall.

[NDG]

Looking at surface observations offshore and long range radar the vorticity is still not at the surface. This might be one of those cases that it develops at the surface right before making landfall. Mostly a rain maker out of this for northern FL, southern AL and southern GA.

[wxman57]

Surface obs say no circulation. It'll be inland before sunset. Just 2-5" of rain for the middle Florida Panhandle and SW Georgia. No wind.

[cheezyWXguy]

Surface obs say no circulation. It'll be inland before sunset. Just 2-5" of rain for the middle Florida Panhandle and SW Georgia. No wind.

Good, the gulf coast needs a break (though the rain doesn’t help) and there’s no point in wasting a name on this.

[ronjon]

Definitely looking more impressive on SAT this morning. More circular, heavy convection, and some infant feeder bands.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=91L&product=truecolor