WPAC: MAWAR - Post-Tropical

[Blown Away]

Eye clearing out, wobbling N, looks like direct hit on Guam increasing…

[Yellow Evan]

Eye temperature 20C now. Given the eye is circular and uniformly warm, this is an easy Category 5 atp.

[mrbagyo]

Rapid Scan

[Guamphoon]

Rapid Scan
https://i.imgur.com/duJCubp.gif

Wow, that eye is like a washing machine. That is impressive and a bit concerning.

It is completely calm outside now. Not even the palms are swaying. That is gonna change fast I am sure.

Seems like NWS and JTWC underestimated a storm again, I now think a strong CAT4 landfall is likely and CAT5 is certainly not impossible at this point.

[MarioProtVI]

This blew up fast, last time I checked it was still having a bursting CCC pattern. Seemed that resolved quickly. Looks like another Yutu ‘18 is on board but possibly worse…cat 5 likely at 06z methinks

[InfernoFlameCat]

they have it at 120 knots now with 942mb.
a bit low imho.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1660884989427187712

[TyphoonNara]

02W MAWAR 230523 0600 11.8N 146.5E WPAC 135 926

135kt is about right for this update, given that wind speeds tend to lag behind satellite presentation. Though I would be disappointed if JTWC doesn't assess the storm to be 150kt+ for the next update given the storm's impressive WMG+CMG presentation.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Already up to 100 kt/935 on the JMA. Violent typhoon is expected with the eye in the southern half and the right front quadrant over the rest of the island. Stronger than Pongsona already and it's not done yet. My goodness.

Code: Select all

T2302(Mawar)
Issued at 2023/05/23 06:45 UTC
Analysis at 05/23 06 UTC
Grade   TY
Scale   -
Intensity   Very Strong
Center position   N11°50′ (11.8°)
E146°30′ (146.5°)
Direction and speed of movement   N 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure   935 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center   50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed   70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area   130 km (70 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area   390 km (210 NM)

Forecast for 05/24 06 UTC
Grade   TY
Intensity   Violent
Center position of probability circle   N13°30′ (13.5°)
E144°35′ (144.6°)
Direction and speed of movement   NW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure   910 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center   [55 m/s (110 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed   80 m/s (155 kt)
Radius of probability circle   65 km (35 NM)
Radius of storm warning area   230 km (125 NM)

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/MatthewCuyugan/status/1660900964587413504

[ElectricStorm]

New JTWC forecast with a double Cat 5 peak

[doomhaMwx]

Looks like intensification has already come to a halt due to EWRC (latest IR imagery shows convection in the eyewall warming up). Even so, this is still looking to become the worst storm to impact Guam in decades!



 https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1660963785014755329

[Guamphoon]

Sun has just set. Getting a little bit breezier than a few hours ago, but nothing remarkable. No rain. Just overcast. Clouds seem in a hurry though. What happens with Mawar tonight is gonna affect the whole island.

EWRC is a break we needed. But hopefully it didn't come too early.

[Hayabusa]

JMA is forecasting this to be near Surigae strength only 5 knots/5 mb difference

Forecast for 05/27 06 UTC
Grade TY
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N16°35′ (16.6°)
E131°30′ (131.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 900 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (165 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 520 km (280 NM)

[Hayabusa]

00Z

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR
014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 11.8N 146.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 135 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 148 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE CLASSIC,
SYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN TYPICAL OF A SUPER TYPHOON, WITH AN OUTER
BAND ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES CURRENTLY
APPROACHING GUAM AND THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN APPROXIMATELY
15-20 NM DIAMETER EYE EVIDENT IN BOTH RADAR AND GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS IS ASSESSED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES,
OBJECTIVE DVORAK AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS BASED INTENSITIES, AND
RADAR VELOCITY DATA. WHILE AN EARLIER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
(ERC) APPEARS TO HAVE COMPLETED, RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
FORMATION OF A NEW INNER BAND THAT COULD BE THE PRECURSOR OF
ANOTHER ERC IN THE HOURS AHEAD.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK AND RADAR VELOCITY
DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGING (STR) TO THE NORTH
AND EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T7.0 - 140 KTS
RJTD: T6.5 - 127 KTS
KNES: T7.0 - 140 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 129 KTS AT 230319Z
CIMSS ADT: 134 KTS AT 230530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: ANALYZED WIND RADII HAVE EXPANDED
RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS WARNING. HOWEVER, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY MAWAR CONTINUES TO UNDERGO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION, SUPPORTED BY VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
AND A WARM SEA SURFACE. THE PRIMARY INHIBITOR TO ADDITIONAL
NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION IS THE IMPACT OF INNER-CORE DYNAMICS
INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION TO 140 KNOTS
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AND IT IS ALL BUT CERTAIN THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN AT OR NEAR SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF
THE EYE OVER OR NEAR GUAM. THE SYSTEM WILL TURN INCREASINGLY TOWARD
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING BUILDS ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL
FOLLOW SOLIDLY ENTRENCHED FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STR THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD, APPROACHING THE RIDGE AXIS AROUND TAU 120.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE ALONG THE STORM
TRACK FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS, ENABLING THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN A
FORMIDABLE TYPHOON.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, LEAVING LITTLE DOUBT THAT GUAM
IS IN FOR A DIRECT OR NEARLY-DIRECT HIT FROM SUPER TYPHOON MAWAR.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT REGARDING THE ANTICIPATED
INTENSIFY AT OR NEAR SUPER TYPHOON STATUS. BEYOND TAU 24, THE
GENERAL TREND IN BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE SIMILAR
AMONG THE PRIMARY MODELS. MOST OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
FORECAST LIES IN THE CROSS-TRACK DIRECTION - ALONG TRACK SPEEDS
AMONG THE SOLUTIONS ARE VERY CLOSE. NEAR-TERM TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BASED ON TIGHT PACKING OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
THROUGH TAU 72. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
INCREASES TO A MODEST 190 NM BY TAU 120, AND THE FORECAST LIES NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE HWRF AND
COAMPS-TC MODELS, SUPPORT MAINTENANCE OF STRONG TYPHOON TO SUPER
TYPHOON INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE ONGOING
POTENTIAL FOR INNER-CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES AND SOME SPREAD IN
MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE IN INTENSITY FORECAST IS
MEDIUM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

Himawari-9 RGB satellite animation from 05-22 20:00Z to 05-23 08:30Z.

[doomhaMwx]

Impressive, Guam radar is capturing echo top heights reaching ~17km in the eyewall of Mawar.

[cycloneye]

02W MAWAR 230523 1200 12.2N 146.1E WPAC 135 923

[TyphoonNara]

 https://twitter.com/squirtleinhk/status/1660989988366843904