EPAC: HILARY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/1141872254595104838/IMG_9738.gif

This is rotating fast. Given structure, I think mid-grade Category 4 is a decent bet but it's also ERC prone with that banding structure.

I think there’s a decent chance this banding structure results in an EWRC starting tomorrow and ending its RI phase a lot sooner than people expected. I hope recon will end up being timed well with Hilary’s peak.

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanDiego/status/1692317448715026883

[MGC]

Just texted my son in Reno and told him he was in the cone......he was like cone of what. I'm sure Hillary's surface circulation will be long gone but its mid level circulation should still be spinning over Nevada. When was the last time Southern Calfornia got hit?.....MGC

[Kingarabian]

All that banding it has means easier for dry air to get inside. Can see that on latest MW imagery.

[Ntxw]

Get that round eye and easy T7.0.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 AUG 2023 Time : 232020 UTC
Lat : 16:17:59 N Lon : 109:22:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 937.2mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.3 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -8.3C Cloud Region Temp : -72.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
600 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023

...HILARY BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 109.5W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

Once the CB on the south wraps around, this will be able to really go off as the storm will be more stable structurally, allowing for the eye to warm without being covered in cirrus.

[Nimbus]

Baja California doesn't get a lot of hurricanes do they?

[TheDreamTraveler]

Just texted my son in Reno and told him he was in the cone......he was like cone of what. I'm sure Hillary's surface circulation will be long gone but its mid level circulation should still be spinning over Nevada. When was the last time Southern Calfornia got hit?.....MGC

For a direct landfalling hit last time and only time ever recorded was 1939. Otherwise the last time was in the 1970s

[SconnieCane]

Baja California doesn't get a lot of hurricanes do they?

It's pretty rare for one to come in as a hurricane as far north as Hilary is projected to. The southern tip does get a significant one once in awhile, such as Odile in 2014.

[GCANE]

This is one of the strongest and organized vorticities I have ever seen

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This is absolutely nuts. 12z GFS shows a landfall between San Diego and Los Angeles.

[GCANE]

Punching thru the tropopause.
Warm core centered.about 200mb.
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... _xsect.gif

[aspen]

This is my fourth season on s2k and I still don’t know how to read the NHC recon schedule documents. When is the first flight scheduled to arrive? 17:00z or 17:30z tomorrow afternoon, or 12:15z tomorrow morning?

[cycloneye]

This is my fourth season on s2k and I still don’t know how to read the NHC recon schedule documents. When is the first flight scheduled to arrive? 17:00z or 17:30z tomorrow afternoon, or 12:15z tomorrow morning?

Departs at 12:15z or 8:15 AM EDT from Keesler base and arrives around 1 PM EDT.

[ElectricStorm]

09E HILARY 230818 0000 16.4N 109.5W EPAC 105 955

[GCANE]

Models never forecast EWRCs.
Very likely one or more EWRCs will occur.
Wind field will be much larger at landfall than what is currently forecast.

[GCANE]

GFS is forecasting a large ingestion of high CAPE air from the Gulf of California as Hillary travels along the Baja coast

[GCANE]

GFS is forecasting a large ingestion of high CAPE air from the Gulf of California as Hillary travels along the Baja coast

Also not seeing any real dry air ingestion all the way to landfall, currently around San Diego