2024 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located well to the south of the southwestern coast
of Mexico continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system over the next several days
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across
the central and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

Basin comming to life.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central
and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

2. Offshore Southwestern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico are associated with a surface
trough. Environmental conditions could support slight development
over the next couple of days as the system moves slowly
west-northwestward, remaining offshore of southwestern Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.


Forecaster Hagen/Brown

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Basin comming to life.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central
and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

2. Offshore Southwestern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico are associated with a surface
trough. Environmental conditions could support slight development
over the next couple of days as the system moves slowly
west-northwestward, remaining offshore of southwestern Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.


Forecaster Hagen/Brown

Guidance favors the western disturbance (10/30) right now. As for intensity, the GFS has been persistent in strengthening it into a borderline hurricane, but everything else shows a TS at most. Honestly any sort of TCG occuring in this basin is a win at this point, no matter how strong. Even then we're getting dangerously close to being shut out in the HU column to begin August.

[Kingarabian]

Basin comming to life.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central
and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

2. Offshore Southwestern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico are associated with a surface
trough. Environmental conditions could support slight development
over the next couple of days as the system moves slowly
west-northwestward, remaining offshore of southwestern Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.


Forecaster Hagen/Brown

Guidance favors the western disturbance (10/30) right now. As for intensity, the GFS has been persistent in strengthening it into a borderline hurricane, but everything else shows a TS at most. Honestly any sort of TCG occuring in this basin is a win at this point, no matter how strong. Even then we're getting dangerously close to being shut out in the HU column to begin August.

That western system will have to overachieve. GFS has backed off on intensity.

[IcyTundra]

The GFS is showing multiple NS forming in the EPAC the first week of August. The GFS is by far the most bullish model right now and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the GFS slowly back off on the intensity. The EPAC is running out of time to take advantage of this lull in the Atlantic basin.

[Kingarabian]

The GFS is showing multiple NS forming in the EPAC the first week of August. The GFS is by far the most bullish model right now and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the GFS slowly back off on the intensity. The EPAC is running out of time to take advantage of this lull in the Atlantic basin.

Completely discredit the GFS at the moment. It's been showing EPAC TCG for the past 2 weeks and nothing to show for it.

[Kingarabian]

Depending on what kind of -ENSO we get, (La Nina or cool neutral), I'm thinking something similar to the last couple of years. Good amount of named systems probably up to 17, while ACE continues to be near or below average.

I meant this year and next year combined.

[aspen]

Hey look the EPac finally produced another named storm. Maybe we’ll get to 1.0 ACE by the end of the month.

[Woofde]

Hey look the EPac finally produced another named storm. Maybe we’ll get to 1.0 ACE by the end of the month.

The Eastern Pacific's July is similar to the Atlantic's August for comparison. On August 1st the EPac usually averages 43.2, on September 1st the Atlantic averages 38.7. If we entered September in the Atlantic with 1 ACE people would be going nuts.

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

[IcyTundra]

 https://x.com/EricBlake12/status/1816610817254785432

[aspen]

It did it. The EPac finally surpassed a single unit of ACE. And it only took until July 25th! I knew it could do it.

[cycloneye]

BUD got 1.4 ACE and it looks like the basin may get a bit more.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle of next week
a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some
slow development is possible after that time as the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Kingarabian]

3 storms during the first week of August on the GFS and CMC. Euro shows one off of Mexico in 10 days or so.

[cycloneye]

So much for the tranquil basin spell. ACE would be plenty if this happens.

[IcyTundra]

So much for the tranquil basin spell. ACE would be plenty if this happens.

https://i.imgur.com/FmaUZcl.png

The GFS is probably over doing it but the EPAC looks favorable for development next week.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jul 27 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of shower and thunderstorm activity located a few
hundred miles south of Guatemala and southern Mexico is associated
with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form during the early or middle part of next week. The system is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
during the next several days, remaining offshore of the southern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Western East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle of next week well
to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula. Some slow development of this system is possible during
the middle and latter parts of the week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

3. South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure could form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico during the latter part of next
week. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter
while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Reinhart

[Yellow Evan]

Upper environment looks very conducive through the first week of August due to a rare MJO passage during a -ENSO year. All guidance but perhaps the op ECMWF is on board with multiple TCs including one strong one.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jul 28 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of Guatemala and the southern coast of Mexico
is associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form during the middle part of the week. The system
is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
during the next several days, remaining offshore of the southern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Western East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle of the week well to
the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
Some slow development of this system is possible during the middle
and latter parts of the week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

3. South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure could form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico towards the end of the week.
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while
it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Kelly

[aspen]

Upper environment looks very conducive through the first week of August due to a rare MJO passage during a -ENSO year. All guidance but perhaps the op ECMWF is on board with multiple TCs including one strong one.

The ECMWF seems to be starting to hop on board.

Finally the EPac has a chance of producing something of substance.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1817546742117573068