Texas Fall 2024

[Brent]

Pretty good bet we are done with the 90’s, maybe some upper 80’s but the 90’s are toast! And good riddance!

Lol Denver has a high of 90 this weekend. that's why there's no cold air...

[Stratton23]

Brent depends on where you are, locally i have nothing but mid 80’s for my area in the extended range, ill take it

[Ntxw]

Even our met mentioned the 90s may come back.

As NTWX mentioned, there is no source of colder air to be of any significance for a big Fall cool down on the maps. Right now our source region of cold air is empty, and there is barley any snow cover in the NW Yukon Territories, let alone Siberia. When you start seeing the snow coverage maps turning white then our opportunities for true cold fronts and cool downs increase.

+EPO over Alaska/NW Canada isn't favorable for cold air to build and move. It's mostly la-la-land modeled which isn't stable the ENS don't support at the moment. We'll see cooler nights (about normal) from climo and maybe some Pacific air styled fronts/ULL, just nothing "cold" per say.

[Brent]

Brent depends on where you are, locally i have nothing but mid 80’s for my area in the extended range, ill take it

Yeah I'm only seeing mid 80s but there was a met here last night that showed 90s in the long range

I mean it's still a lot better than most of the last three months has been

[Stratton23]

Brent as long as the humidity stays in check, a dry 90 actually feels pretty good, its 87 here but low humidity and it feels amazing, hope fully we can get some more fronts over the enxt several weeks, just need this persistent ridging over the central US to break down

[HockeyTx82]

I can't believe we are not seeing any long range with snow in Texas. Winter Cancel!

[Ntxw]

Recent note it can still be mild/warm first week or two of October. In fact since 2010 - most years it has been (DFW has hit 90 or higher every October since). 80s and 90s abound only 2012 and 2020 really was consistently below normal. It is important to build snow cover in the high latitudes. It's the second half of October that we typically feel some of the bigger pushes of cold, should they occur.

[Brent]

I hate these patterns when you'll wonder if it will ever rain again

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Recent note it can still be mild/warm first week or two of October. In fact since 2010 - most years it has been (DFW has hit 90 or higher every October since). 80s and 90s abound only 2012 and 2020 really was consistently below normal. It is important to build snow cover in the high latitudes. It's the second half of October that we typically feel some of the bigger pushes of cold, should they occur.

Correct on all accounts. Also, the lack of sea ice and the reduction of it every year must have an effect on our fall cold fronts.

[Stratton23]

Im hearing from some folks that this back loaded hurricane season could actually lead to a colder start to winter actoss a good chunk of the US , not sure if their is any correlation with that, but im hearing some talk of that

[Brent]

Im hearing from some folks that this back loaded hurricane season could actually lead to a colder start to winter actoss a good chunk of the US , not sure if their is any correlation with that, but im hearing some talk of that

Well I know hurricanes going east of us are not good(just like right now)

[CaptinCrunch]

Quite a few 90s in the forecast over the next 2 weeks. Temperatures look to be in that 88-93 range. I'll be at the State Fair Thursday next week and the current forecast high is 91.

What I'm really enjoying are these nice cool mornings having coffee on the back deck.

Tranquil weather will prevail this weekend with near or above
normal temperatures characterized by highs in the mid 80s to lower
90s. A stagnant weather pattern will remain in place until the
remnants of Helene become reabsorbed into faster mid-level flow
and the stout western/central CONUS ridge axis eventually breaks
down. Until then, dry northerly flow through the column will favor
warm afternoons, mild nights, and large diurnal temperature
swings due to low humidity and mostly clear skies. Expect a north
breeze of around 10 mph with some higher daytime gusts through the
rest of the weekend.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 412 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/
/Sunday Night Onward/

The work week ahead will be quiet, with highs in the upper
80s/low 90s each day and no rain chances forecast. North and
Central Texas will primarily be under the influence of a mid- and
upper-level ridge positioned to the west, with northerly flow
aiding in a drier first half of the week. Southerly winds will
return at the surface in the mid to late week, with a slight
increase in moisture from the Gulf, as the ridge broadens across
the southern part of the U.S.

For Day 7 and beyond, differing evolutions of any Gulf low
pressure developing will impact any rain chances returning, and
the outlook remains quite uncertain. The GFS suite is more
aggressive with any potential tropical system (and has been the
last few runs), depicting an upper level trough over Texas
interacting with what develops in the Gulf, providing a potential
pattern change and more unsettled weather next weekend. This is
the unlikely outcome at this point, with the grand ensemble mean
of any measurable precipitation occurring across North and
Central Texas being heavily influenced by the GEFS members
favoring moisture from the tropics entering the region. Most
guidance remains dry still, but this is a signal worth watching
over the next several days for what could be the next real
opportunity for rain.

Gordon

[Ntxw]

Still no significant cold air masses over North America on the ground.

The big news story is the near 600dm+ 500mb height about to occur east of Japan. That kind of gradient will likely infuse a strong East Asian Jet. That's a firehose that prevents us from having significant cooling. You want deep troughs and super typhoons to buckle the pattern out there not super enhanced heat waves in that region of the ocean.

[Stratton23]

Lame

[Brent]

Oh well as much as I hate a torch early cold hasn't helped us in the winter lately so maybe it's not a complete disaster. I mean we had low 20s on Halloween last year and barely any snow the whole winter

The lack of rain is a problem though

[WeatherNewbie]

Recent note it can still be mild/warm first week or two of October. In fact since 2010 - most years it has been (DFW has hit 90 or higher every October since). 80s and 90s abound only 2012 and 2020 really was consistently below normal. It is important to build snow cover in the high latitudes. It's the second half of October that we typically feel some of the bigger pushes of cold, should they occur.

Yep, Texas-OU is the second weekend of October every year, and I remember far more hot games than cool or cold games. I do remember a sleet game back in '99 or '00 though.

[Ntxw]

Oh well as much as I hate a torch early cold hasn't helped us in the winter lately so maybe it's not a complete disaster. I mean we had low 20s on Halloween last year and barely any snow the whole winter

The lack of rain is a problem though

We've seen a pretty severe -NAO episode lately though. Perhaps it will translate into winter. Had the Pacific been better and there was any cold of significance would've been a decent stretch of cool/below normal.

[CaptinCrunch]

I'm not looking for significant cool downs till late October at the earliest. By then the snow pack and Arctic Ice in our source region will be looking much better. While I expect this Winter will see a low end La Nina which in those Winters we had better opportunities for cold

[Stratton23]

CaptinCrunch i though we were going towards a strong la nina?

[Nederlander]

CaptinCrunch i though we were going towards a strong la nina?

The latest model consensus I saw was around -0.5.

Analog years: ‘05-06,‘13-14, ‘17-18