NATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

No PTC yet, which is odd considering it'll be in the Bahamas in about 24 hours.

I'm thinking at 11:00 pm tonight

[Kingarabian]

Stalling for 24-36 hours somewhere over the Carolinas will suck.

[cycloneye]

NWSWPC issues hazards outlook for Carolinas.

 https://x.com/NWSWPC/status/1971342662872506442

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle, approaching the Azores, and on
Tropical Storm Humberto, over the subtropical central Atlantic.

1. Southwestern Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in
association with a a tropical wave located near Hispaniola and the
Turks and Caicos Islands. An area of low pressure is expected to
form along the wave tonight or early Friday when it moves near the
southeast Bahamas. This low is expected to become a tropical
depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and northwest
Bahamas late Friday or over the weekend, and then track
northwestward or northward over the southwestern Atlantic.

Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this
system. Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds
are likely across that region during the next couple of days.
While there is significant uncertainty in the long-range track and
intensity of the system, the chances of wind, rainfall, and storm
surge impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast are
increasing. Interests in that area should monitor the progress of
the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

[GCANE]

It may be over water now.

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 0_swhr.gif

Good outflow from the ULL to its NE.

[GCANE]

Looks like its under a dissipating PV streamer at the moment which is limiting air parcel lift.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... g8vor1.GIF

Should clear out once a hot tower fires,
Forecast for UL conditions in the Bahamas is highly favorable for intensification.

[Zonacane]

Looks like there is a developing equatorial outflow channel and a formative curved band wrapping upshear, GCANE called it

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track: Looks to be slowing down.

AL, 94, 2025092600, , BEST, 0, 207N, 720W, 25, 1009, DB

[emeraldislenc]

I think the major concern will be flooding and large waves from this storm and the other one.

[Sciencerocks]

[Fancy1002]

Looks like its under a dissipating PV streamer at the moment which is limiting air parcel lift.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... g8vor1.GIF

Should clear out once a hot tower fires,
Forecast for UL conditions in the Bahamas is highly favorable for intensification.

What do you think the odds of rapid intensification to at least a category three are?

[cycloneye]

From the other side of the world, Josh eyes his next chase.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1971403094631366807

[Blown Away]

I see no signs of even a broad circulation around 20.7N/72.0W.

00z ICON continues with this crazy fujiwara idea. Something just doesn’t seem right with these scenarios.

[chaser1]

I see no signs of even a broad circulation around 20.7N/72.0W.

00z ICON continues with this crazy fujiwara idea. Something just doesn’t seem right with these scenarios.

No, I'm not seeing it there either... but, it's night-time. I am suspicious that any LLC near 72W might again end up as tomorrow's latest naked swirl but we'll have to wait and see. Meanwhile, what appears to be a broad but more visually (IR) apperant MLC appears roughly centered over E. Dominican Republic still. Quite the complex mess.

[cycloneye]

They changed the location at 06z best track from where it was on 00z at 20.7N and now is at 19.8N. Was never off the coast of DR/Haiti.

[skillz305]

Waiting to see how west this gets before getting picked up north….

[caneman]

They changed the location at 06z best track from where it was on 00z at 20.7N and now is at 19.8N. Was never off the coast of DR/Haiti.

https://i.imgur.com/3pL3BA9.png

You would think being that far South that when the NW bend occurs it would take it much closer to Florida. Be interesting to see what the models show later today.
Edit: never mind, looks like models already have that factored in. Not to self, drink coffee before posting. Lol.

[cycloneye]

Zoomed to area that best track had on 06Z at 19.8N-72.9W.

[Nimbus]

Convection still mostly associated with the trough south of Hispaniola this morning.
The models are having trouble resolving the ridge catch and release scenario.
Official forecast has been holding track offshore not coming west of 77.5.
Model surface pressures at landfall high 970's low 980's which means flooding and power outages.

Beginning to look as though some tree branch trimming and Locktite PL roof flashing cement might be in order.