NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[GCANE]

That UL PV it's been under has slowly deteriorated during the day.
If if continues during the night, may see a flare up at dawn when it starts to tap into the East Pacific moisture

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... g8vor1.GIF

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

[GCANE]

They may tag it about 14N 73W,
South and waaaay west of forecast track

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... ELISSA.png
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... /track.png

[StormWeather]

Even the NHC is calling out 2025 now!

Satellite data indicate that Melissa is struggling in strong shear,
which has been the theme for many systems over the deep tropics this
year.

[MarioProtVI]

This feels like a bootleg Matthew with how slow it’s gonna be meandering in the Caribbean. Not as strong of course, at least not yet…

[StormWeather]

This feels like a bootleg Matthew with how slow it’s gonna be meandering in the Caribbean. Not as strong of course, at least not yet…

When Matthew formed, it was already a 50-kt TS, so kinda similar intensity and timing.

[GCANE]

That jet has dissipated somewhat.
Seeing some convection firing now in the dry air.
If trend continues, DMAX could be interesting in about 15 hrs.

[sasha_B]

No mention of a center reformation on the 21z advisory; Melissa's center is estimated to be at 14.2N 73.0W, which remains well to the west of the bulk of the storm's deep convection. As much as it's been struggling with shear, though, the NHC (along with much of the model guidance) continues to forecast that it'll survive these conditions long enough to eventually strengthen.

[Ubuntwo]

Circ pushing past 73W now, beyond the 12z Euro and ICON positions for 21z. Despite the tilt, there doesn't appear to be evidence for a center reformation at this point. Surface obs and recon indicate the lowest pressures are still to the west, low clouds are not being pulled into the convection, and the NHC makes no mention of one in the 5PM.

[cycloneye]

Important part from the 5 PM discussion:

If Melissa organizes like the GFS
predicts, it could turn northeastward into the weakness in the
ridge and move over Hispaniola. Conversely, if Melissa remains
sheared and lopsided, it will likely stall and eventually drift
westward as a ridge builds north of it. Given the expected
continued shear, the NHC track forecast leans toward the latter
scenario. This prediction is a little left of the previous forecast
and remains a blend of the latest Google DeepMind ensemble mean,
the corrected consensus aid HCCA, and simple consensus TVCA.

[Teban54]

That's funny - The new "Wiki forecast". Hey, props to reaching "Olga" though. I just love that name for a tropical cyclone.

I wouldn't mind an end-of-season Olga.

This naming list has ended at Olga quite a few times so it would be fitting.

Of all seasons that use this year's naming list, List 5:

• 1 ended with D (1983)
• 1 ended with K (1989)
• 1 ended with M (2013)
• 2 ended with O (2001, 2007)
• 1 ended with S (2019)
• 1 ended with T (1995)

So ending with O isn't too outstanding for this list, but it's still the only ending letter that happened twice.

[underthwx]

Good afternoon all!. Are there any scenarios that pose any issues for Florida?

[ThomasW]

This is an obvious center relocation:




I'd peg it around 13.9N 70.1W.

[Nimbus]

Important part from the 5 PM discussion:

If Melissa organizes like the GFS
predicts, it could turn northeastward into the weakness in the
ridge and move over Hispaniola. Conversely, if Melissa remains
sheared and lopsided, it will likely stall and eventually drift
westward as a ridge builds north of it. Given the expected
continued shear, the NHC track forecast leans toward the latter
scenario. This prediction is a little left of the previous forecast
and remains a blend of the latest Google DeepMind ensemble mean,
the corrected consensus aid HCCA, and simple consensus TVCA.

Sharp line between the dry air in the gulf and the moist Caribbean.
The shear is eventually going to let up so probably wise they left the risk in for now.

[SouthFLTropics]

IR is not the best for determining where the center is. The visible clearly shows the center further west, outracing the convection. Not saying a relocating isn't possible, but the center further west seems very vigorous and not wanting to die off.

[ThomasW]

IR is not the best for determining where the center is. The visible clearly shows the center further west, outracing the convection. Not saying a relocating isn't possible, but the center further west seems very vigorous and not wanting to die off.

Why are low-level winds screaming into the eastern feature, then? The western one seems weak and fairly likely to die off unless there's a major convective burst.

[BobHarlem]

IR is not the best for determining where the center is. The visible clearly shows the center further west, outracing the convection. Not saying a relocating isn't possible, but the center further west seems very vigorous and not wanting to die off.

Why are low-level winds screaming into the eastern feature, then? The western one seems weak and fairly likely to die off unless there's a major convective burst.

We've got recon, I don't see that there.

[ronjon]

Many of the global models are showing a decoupling of the low level and mid-level centers so is that happening now? If that is the case and the LLC doesn't reform under the deep convection, then this system will remain weak for several more days as it trudges westward toward the western Caribbean.

[Hurricane Mike]

This is a very complicated forecast, I feel for the NHC.

[zzzh]

IR is not the best for determining where the center is. The visible clearly shows the center further west, outracing the convection. Not saying a relocating isn't possible, but the center further west seems very vigorous and not wanting to die off.

Why are low-level winds screaming into the eastern feature, then? The western one seems weak and fairly likely to die off unless there's a major convective burst.

I don't see any westerly wind into the blob. I also see strong southerly wind just west of the blob.

[TomballEd]

This is a very complicated forecast, I feel for the NHC.

I mentioned this the other day and no implying Melissa will be like Mitch but I was model watching then using the South Florida Water Management site which no longer shows models, but did then, and the models were a squashed spider.