NATL: MELISSA - Models

[blp]

Outside of a center reformation chances of GFS verifying going down fast.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1980759054013059188

[Cachondo23]

Chances going down quickly for a hit on Haiti.
Majority has a path to the West Carib

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 211800.png

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 210600.png

And yet, the 18z GFS has a DR landfall.

At the beginning of the models, it was a love/hate situation with PR now is DR!

[zzzh]

18z ECAI trended way stronger. It's been the worst model for this system along with GFS.

[aspen]

All four hurricane models have trended weaker and more SW in the short-term. The HWRF has trended less so and is still comparable to the GFS, but it’s still noticeable.

HMON stalls and RIs just south of Jamaica. Very scary if that pans out.

HAFS-A/B start intensifying a little further away from Jamaica than the HMON.

[SFLcane]

All four hurricane models have trended weaker and more SW in the short-term. The HWRF has trended less so and is still comparable to the GFS, but it’s still noticeable.

HMON stalls and RIs just south of Jamaica. Very scary if that pans out.

HAFS-A/B start intensifying a little further away from Jamaica than the HMON.

No stall on the HMON it continues on a W/WSW course south of Jamaica.

[SFLcane]

18z Hafs-b.. see ya Jamaica.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/ryanmaue/status/1980790734581297175

[WaveBreaking]

Nothing is obviously set in stone rn but I can’t see a possibility where Melissa doesn’t bomb out in the environment the HAFS models are showing unless convection never fires over the LLC again for some reason.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Hurricane2022]

Nothing is obviously set in stone rn but I can’t see a possibility where Melissa doesn’t bomb out in the environment the HAFS models are showing unless convection never fires over the LLC again for some reason.

https://i.imgur.com/yHLF3Kt.png
https://i.imgur.com/18DFG6J.png
https://i.imgur.com/137i1jc.png
https://i.imgur.com/mRztpEs.png

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

This environment would very easily take Melissa to the highest level of Atlantic hurricanes. There we have more than enough time for the system to rival historic hurricanes like Three '33, Gilbert '88, and Wilma '05, as well as cyclones from other basins, such as Hagibis '19, Jova '23, Olaf '05, and so on.

If it weren’t for the immense uncertainty about its future path, I would have no problem saying that I would expect Melissa to become a record-breaking hurricane.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Iceresistance]

Well, the FNV3 is back at it again with insane runs, like this 887 mb member on this 18z

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b397b.png

[Hurricane2022]

One of the things I enjoy most about hurricane forecasting is looking at the IR simulation from the HAFS-A and B models.
It's always wonderful to see how the tropical cyclones are almost perfectly drawn on these maps

[ronjon]

The HAFS models show a signicant hurricane on a W-SW course approaching 80W longitude near 14N in 5 days. I don't have tell anyone what longitude Miami sits at. Now future troughs will likely steer it NE but the further west it gets will determine how close it gets to the keys and S FL.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1980798821371105758

 https://x.com/WeathermanAAA_/status/1980801432581271891

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/CloudsterWx/status/1980812775090975085

[SFLcane]

Its think its pretty safe to say at this point the gfs is WRONG !

[SFLcane]

The HAFS models show a signicant hurricane on a W-SW course approaching 80W longitude near 14N in 5 days. I don't have tell anyone what longitude Miami sits at. Now future troughs will likely steer it NE but the further west it gets will determine how close it gets to the keys and S FL.

[blp]

The HAFS models show a signicant hurricane on a W-SW course approaching 80W longitude near 14N in 5 days. I don't have tell anyone what longitude Miami sits at. Now future troughs will likely steer it NE but the further west it gets will determine how close it gets to the keys and S FL.

https://i.imgur.com/HIon03t.png

https://i.imgur.com/BOczOQd.jpeg

Trend on HCCA.

[USTropics]

Its think its pretty safe to say at this point the gfs is WRONG !

https://i.imgur.com/1xEgE2L.jpeg

Name a more iconic duo than the GFS model and missing Caribbean tropical cyclone forecasts — I’ll wait.

The ECMWF has had a decent handle on this in conjunction with Google DeepMind ensembles. I would hedge there (they are closely aligned with the HCCA consensus model as well).

[Teban54]

Its think its pretty safe to say at this point the gfs is WRONG !

https://i.imgur.com/1xEgE2L.jpeg

Name a more iconic duo than the GFS model and missing Caribbean tropical cyclone forecasts — I’ll wait.

The ECMWF has had a decent handle on this in conjunction with Google DeepMind ensembles. I would hedge there (they are closely aligned with the HCCA consensus model as well).

A possible explanation:
 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1980810036294426797

My hunch why so many global models (esp the GFS) have struggled with #Melissa today is in part because most of them don't have sufficient spatiotemporal resolution to fully resolve this shallow & strong Caribbean Low Level Jet.

[BobHarlem]

0z Icon is devastating for Jamaica (both long duration impacts and rain) Rain especially bad on the eastern half of the island.