Ophelia Recon Reports

[Derek Ortt]

only a TS warning is needed. no cane advisories since the forecast track for the next 3 days is away from the coast and conditions will slowly improve

now, cane warnings may very well be needed in 4-5 days

[deltadog03]

but, are we really sure its gonna push east?? i think they should go up for the fact that we don't really know what she is going to do

[feederband]

only a TS warning is needed.

Hope your right...

[senorpepr]

but, are we really sure its gonna push east?? i think they should go up for the fact that we don't really know what she is going to do

It's a very safe bet that the coast will not see hurricane conditions within 36 hours. Therefore, no hurricane advisories are needed. Tropical storm advisories - yes, but not hurricane.

[Brent]

but, are we really sure its gonna push east?? i think they should go up for the fact that we don't really know what she is going to do

It's not moving at all right now, any westward motion(outside of a drift) is days away...

[Lowpressure]

Windfield expansion could reach portions of the coast.

[deltadog03]

but, are we really sure its gonna push east?? i think they should go up for the fact that we don't really know what she is going to do

It's a very safe bet that the coast will not see hurricane conditions within 36 hours. Therefore, no hurricane advisories are needed. Tropical storm advisories - yes, but not hurricane.

yeah, i don't think they are needed to say...i guess you have a good point about the conditions...im just having a hard time buying the ne movement....

[Eyes2theSkies]

when does the next plane head out

[Derek Ortt]

plane has been in there and the data indicates that Ophelia is not a hurricane any longer. What may have happened was a transient super cell near the eye caused the pressure to fall and the winds to increase

[Jim Hughes]

plane has been in there and the data indicates that Ophelia is not a hurricane any longer. What may have happened was a transient super cell near the eye caused the pressure to fall and the winds to increase

Or the continual upwelling is starting to take it's toll. Even the gulfstream area has cooler waters below and they have to come up sooner or later. Plus she has been dealing with all that dry air around her. She has fought gamely in my book. Lets see what happens if she ever moves a little.


Jim

[artist]

nobody posting for us??? guess we have taken you guys for granted.

[deltadog03]

nope...i think the dry air is getting in there....

[artist]

for those wanting to see recon message currently-
http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=100





- these are interpreted for you -


http://weather.net-waves.com/td16.php#Models

[artist]

000
URNT12 KNHC 082341
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 08/23:23:00Z
B. 28 deg 37 min N
079 deg 19 min W
C. 850 mb 1338 m
D. 40 kt
E. 44 deg 039 nm
F. 136 deg 055 kt
G. 044 deg 029 nm
H. 990 mb
I. 16 C/ 1553 m
J. 21 C/ 1551 m
K. 21 C/ NA
L. RAGGED
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0616A OPHELIA OB 19
MAX FL WIND 74 KT SW QUAD 19:52:30 Z


latest vortex

[senorpepr]

for those wanting to see recon message currently-
http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=100





- these are interpreted for you -


http://weather.net-waves.com/td16.php#Models

Another S2K site with auto-updating recon data all on one page is http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/recon.htm

[artist]

thanks senorpepr!

[Derek Ortt]

gulfstream moves so there is no upwelling over it

[spinfan4eva]

gulfstream moves so there is no upwelling over it

Temporary/Eyewall Replacement? Looking like more deep convection beginning on radar near the center.

[MiamiensisWx]

Conection appears to be good near the center... however, it appears more limited than before. Also, Ophelia looks weaker and more like a strong tropical storm instead. The weakening looks confirmed on both visible and infra-red imagery. Water vapor imagery also indicates the weakening somewhat and shows the dry air to the north of the system. The tight boundaries to the north, south and southeast indicate that shear may also be playing a part in the weakening, along with the dry air.

[Thunder44]

Why is no one here posting recon reports?

551
URNT12 KNHC 090510 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/0431Z
B. 28 DEG 47 MIN N
79 DEG 20 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1361 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 046 DEG 56 KT
G. 320 DEG 23 NM
H. 990 MB
I. 21 C/ 1574 M
J. 24 C/ 1571 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE.....CORRECTED
M. E05/40/30
N. 12345/8
O. 1/2 NM
P. NOAA2 0816A OPHELIA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 58 KT NE QUAD 0303Z