Hurricane Wilma Recon Discussion Thread

Derek Ortt · #161 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 3:17 pm

if the storm was not already upgraded, it likely would not be upgraded now

but since the storm has been upgraded, and the pressure continues to fall fairly quickly,hurricane status almost certainly will be retained

Scorpion · #162 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 3:17 pm

Confused. Since its small, wouldnt the 970 support at least a Cat 2? But the FL winds support a TS.

Stratosphere747 · #163 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 3:17 pm

B. 16 deg 36 min N
081 deg 25 min W

Estimated center?

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #164 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 3:17 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Its a very tight system....It has always been. 970s is like cat2 hurricane like?

The circulation is very tight, but the gradient is very loose... that's why the winds are lower than normal.

#165 Postby **cjrciadt** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 3:17 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Its a very tight system....It has always been. 970s is like cat2 hurricane like?

Katrina 100 971 Category 2 Hurricane

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #166 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 3:18 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:B. 16 deg 36 min N
081 deg 25 min W

Estimated center?

No... fixed.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: WILMA (24L)
Mission Number: 05
Flight ID: AF302
Observation Number: 06 Google Maps Vortex Position -- Click Here
Time: 19:54:00Z
Latitude: 16.6°N
Longitude: 81.4°W

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #167 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 3:19 pm

This thing reminds me of Katrina...Had a very low pressure with low winds. But kepted growing for a few days...Then booom!

Scorpion · #168 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 3:21 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:This thing reminds me of Katrina...Had a very low pressure with low winds. But kepted growing for a few days...Then booom!

Agreed. I think it will reach a very low pressure. Kat was 100 kts with 940 pressure before it bombed, and this will likely have an even lower pressure when its 100 kts.

Stratosphere747 · #169 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 3:21 pm

Thanks Senor...

I keep equating that reading as the center in the VM.

Does look like there has been a more westerly component.

jpigott · #170 Postby **jpigott** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 3:22 pm

senorpepr wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Its a very tight system....It has always been. 970s is like cat2 hurricane like?
The circulation is very tight, but the gradient is very loose... that's why the winds are lower than normal.

will the gradient tighten or will Wilma stay "loose"

#171 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 3:23 pm

Well, at 970MB, she's certiainly getting better organzied.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #172 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 3:28 pm

jpigott wrote:
senorpepr wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Its a very tight system....It has always been. 970s is like cat2 hurricane like?
The circulation is very tight, but the gradient is very loose... that's why the winds are lower than normal.

will the gradient tighten or will Wilma stay "loose"

Some tightening will occur, but by and large Wilma will remain a "looser"-than-normal cyclone.

Stratosphere747 · #173 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 3:28 pm

Bear with me....

Latest dropsonde would indicate a westerly movement from the 2pm advisory?

#174 Postby **cjrciadt** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 3:30 pm

senorpepr wrote:
jpigott wrote:
senorpepr wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Its a very tight system....It has always been. 970s is like cat2 hurricane like?
The circulation is very tight, but the gradient is very loose... that's why the winds are lower than normal.

will the gradient tighten or will Wilma stay "loose"

Some tightening will occur, but by and large Wilma will remain a "looser"-than-normal cyclone.

Any explaination for the trend of "loose" pressure gradient storms this year?

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #175 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 3:33 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:Bear with me....

Latest dropsonde would indicate a westerly movement from the 2pm advisory?

About 250 degrees (WSW)

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #176 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 3:35 pm

cjrciadt wrote:Any explaination for the trend of "loose" pressure gradient storms this year?

Lower-than-normal pressures across the basin.
Earlier-than-normal northward push of the ITCZ this spring.
Warmer SSTs.

Those are a few factors.

Stratosphere747 · #177 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 3:37 pm

senorpepr wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:Bear with me....

Latest dropsonde would indicate a westerly movement from the 2pm advisory?

About 250 degrees (WSW)

Appreciate greatly the responses Senor. I've decided to become much more educated on the overall readings and such from recon.

Not quite ready for Chris Walken yet...

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #178 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 3:40 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:
senorpepr wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:Bear with me....

Latest dropsonde would indicate a westerly movement from the 2pm advisory?

About 250 degrees (WSW)

Appreciate greatly the responses Senor. I've decided to become much more educated on the overall readings and such from recon.

Not quite ready for Chris Walken yet...

Haha... no problem!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #179 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 3:41 pm

When will the next vortex come out?

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #180 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 3:44 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:When will the next vortex come out?

It'll be a little while. They just came out of a pass, so probably 90 minutes or so.

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