SE Indian Ocean: Severe TC Glenda

[I'm Watching You]

Downgraded to a Catergory 4

CYCLONE WARNING is now current for a CATEGORY 4 CYCLONE for coastal areas
between De Grey and Onslow and extending to adjacent inland parts. A CYCLONE
WATCH extends from Onslow to Coral Bay and includes the inland western Pilbara
and adjacent Gascoyne.

At 11am WST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA was estimated to be
315 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
395 kilometres north northeast of Karratha
and was moving west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour.

Communities along the Pilbara coast should be aware that SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
GLENDA is expected to approach the coast later today and during Thursday. Gales
with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop on the Pilbara coast later
today with gusts to increasing to 125 kilometres per hour overnight.

Residents of the central and west Pilbara coast are warned of the risk of very
destructive winds with gusts exceeding 250 kilometres per hour during Thursday
close to the centre as this very dangerous cyclone nears the coast.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA at 11am WST Wednesday.
Location of centre : within 30 kilometres of
Latitude 17.5 South Longitude 118.4 East.
Recent movement : West southwest at 14 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 916 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 275 kilometres per hour.
Severity Category : 4

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following alerts:
Blue alert: People in or near coastal communities between De Grey and Mardie
including Port Hedland, South Hedland, Whim Creek, Point Samson, Wickham,
Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier should start taking precautions.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Here she comes back...Looks like she is developing a larger eye.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[SouthFloridawx]

Rapid intensification?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We will see. It looks to be expending like Katrina could very well be.

[Rod Hagen]

FORTUNATELY, IF THIS MAP IS CORRECT WHICH I THINK IT'S, AUSTRALIA'S NORTHWESTERN COAST IS VERY SPARSELY POPULATED, THEREFORE THE DAMAGE ISNT GOING TO BE COMPARABLE TO LARRY'S. STILL, A VERY SERIOUS STORM FOR ANYONE THAT LIVES IN THAT AREA.

It is fairly lightly populated, although there has been some significant expansion in the tourist industry in recent years.

Carnarvon (population 7000) is probably the largest town likely to get hit (it seems to be passing by Port Hedland), but there is also the major communications base at North West Cape near Exmouth - see http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ ... xmouth.htm


There are also substantial Aboriginal settlements in the general area, and extensive mining and oil operations.

Not as densely settled as the Queensland coast, but still the possibility of dangerous, and expensive, damage if it picks the wrong place to come ashore.


Rod

[AussieMark]

a landfall in Queensland is so much worse than Western Australia

severe cyclone landfalls in Western AUstralia are not rare either especially over the last decade.


1998/99 Season
Tropical Cyclone Thelma

Tropical Cyclone Vance



1999/00 Season
Tropical Cyclone John

Tropical Cyclone Rosita



2000/01 Season
Tropical Cyclone Sam



2001/02 Season
Tropical Cyclone Chris



2003/04 Season
Tropical Cyclone Fay



2004/05 Season
Tropical Cyclone Ingrid

[Inclement Weather]

Hi guys,

First post to your forum. Hi Matthew Hurricanewatcher and Doctor Hurricane, my friends who visit us down under. Well, to reiterate what's been said elsewhere:

1/ This is a mighty powerful system, that will make land fall as a severe tropical cyclone at least Cat 4 and maybe regaining Cat 5 status;

2/ Where remains the question though . . . ?; and finally

3/ MPHI indicates that Glenda does have the potential to get down to 880 hPa the closer she gets to the Pilbara Coast!

See link:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#SIND

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Welcome to the board inclement weather...Yes it appears that it was earlier had a small eye like Wilma...But like Wilma could be trying to form a larger eye. This will be interesting times.

[Inclement Weather]

Thanks Matt, I didn't know this place existed until Squeak told me about it. It's as if I'm visiting and I have to careful I don't knock the China over! But, you have made me feel welcome.

Yes, interesting times ahead no doubt with Glenda.

[AussieMark]

welcme aboard

Glad to see more of my fellow countrymen are arriving on the scene.

I have been the only aussie on the board for the last 2 years

[Rod Hagen]

a landfall in Queensland is so much worse than Western Australia

severe cyclone landfalls in Western AUstralia are not rare either especially over the last decade.


1998/99 Season
.....

Tropical Cyclone Vance

THis one looks a bit too like Vance for comfort, , don't you think, Mark?

see http://www.drdisk.com.hk/vance.htm and http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/sevwx/vance.shtml for its impact

Cheers

Rod

[Inclement Weather]

Thanks for that Mark, if only I had looked at this two years ago myself. Oh well, short term member - long time watcher.

Just looking at the ever expanding convection field of Glenda, and the latest radar images from Port Hedland - gee - not only packing the wind, but there's some water ready to drop in this thing!

[AussieMark]

yes this storm reminds me of Vance for some reason and even a landfall in that area can't be ruled out either


its cool Inclement Weather

do u follow hurricanes/cyclones/typhoons globally like I do?

[Inclement Weather]

I have followed the last two hurricane seasons in the Pacific/Atlantic/GOM with zest; but with only a cursory eye on typhoons.

I have always followed the Australian cyclone seasons since Tracy in '74.

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0658UTC 29 MARCH 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Glenda located within 15 nautical miles of
Latitude seventeen decimal seven degrees South [17.7S]
Longitude one hundred and eighteen decimal zero degrees East [118.0E]
Recent movement : West southwest at 7 knots.
Maximum winds : 100 knots.
Central pressure : 920hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles of the centre in northern quadrants, extending to
within 140 nautical miles of centre in southern quadrants.


FORECAST
Sustained winds near the centre to 100 knots.
Within 20 nautical miles of centre, clockwise winds above 64 knots, phenomenal
seas and heavy swell.
Within 45 nautical miles of centre, clockwise winds above 48 knots, very high
seas and heavy swell.
Within 80 nautical miles of centre in northern quadrants, extending to within
140 nautical miles of centre in southern quadrants, winds above 33 knots with
very rough seas and heavy swell.


At 1800UTC 29 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 18.9 South 116.7 East
Central pressure 920hPa.
Winds to 100 knots near centre.
At 0600UTC 30 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 20.6 South 115.8 East
Central pressure 920hPa.
Winds to 100 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 1300UTC 29 March 2006.


WEATHER PERTH

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1242UTC 29 MARCH 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Glenda located within 20 nautical miles of
Latitude eighteen decimal three degrees South [18.3S]
Longitude one hundred and seventeen decimal five degrees East [117.5E]
Recent movement : West southwest at 7 knots.
Maximum winds : 100 knots.
Central pressure : 920hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 110 nautical miles of the centre in northwest quadrants, extending to
within 130 nautical miles of centre in southeast quadrants.


FORECAST
Sustained winds near the centre to 100 knots.
Within 30 nautical miles of centre, clockwise winds above 64 knots, phenomenal
seas and heavy swell.
Within 50 nautical miles of centre, clockwise winds above 48 knots, very high
seas and heavy swell.
Within 110 nautical miles of centre in northwest quadrants, extending to within
130 nautical miles of centre in southeast quadrants, winds above 33 knots with
very rough seas and heavy swell.


At 0000UTC 30 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 19.7 South 116.4 East
Central pressure 920hPa.
Winds to 100 knots near centre.
At 1200UTC 30 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 21.3 South 115.5 East
Central pressure 920hPa.
Winds to 100 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 1900UTC 29 March 2006.


WEATHER PERTH

[P.K.]

Landfall forecast at 90kts.

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1900UTC 29 MARCH 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Glenda located within 20 nautical miles of
Latitude eighteen decimal eight degrees South [18.8S]
Longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal seven degrees East [116.7E]
Recent movement : West southwest at 9 knots.
Maximum winds : 100 knots.
Central pressure : 925hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 140 nautical miles of the centre.


FORECAST
Sustained winds near the centre to 100 knots.
Within 30 nautical miles of centre, clockwise winds above 64 knots, phenomenal
seas and heavy swell.
Within 50 nautical miles of centre, clockwise winds above 48 knots, very high
seas and heavy swell.
Within 120 nautical miles of centre in northeast quadrants, extending to within
140 nautical miles of centre in southwest quadrants, winds above 33 knots with
very rough seas and heavy swell.


At 0600UTC 30 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 20.3 South 115.7 East
Central pressure 925hPa.
Winds to 100 knots near centre.
At 1800UTC 30 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 22.0 South 114.9 East
Central pressure 940hPa.
Winds to 90 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 0100UTC 30 March 2006.


WEATHER PERTH

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

WTXS31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 116.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 116.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.3S 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 22.2S 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 24.5S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 116.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (GLENDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
NORTHEAST OF BARROW ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 20S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE CENTERED OVER AUSTRALIA. THE FORECAST TRACK DEPICTS LANDFALL
BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
ENTERS A REGION OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z, AND 302100Z.//

NNNN

About as strong as Ivan!

[HurricaneHunter914]

Yet Ivan actually had an eye.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The 85h data shows a eye but kind of like Ivans....