Nice S. Caribbean flare-up 6/1/06 -- 6/4/06......

[rockyman]

Visible loops this morning show a bare low level circulation entering the Gulf of Honduras...this area is currently experiencing 30-50 knots of NW shear...as the system slides further west, the shear subsides to around 20 knots and is expected to decrease further (on the west side of the digging trough axis)...the TAFB is showing this surface low hanging around the Gulf of Honduras for the next 72 hours...so some development could be possible toward the beginning of the week.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Here's my morning map:

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h119/rockyman_photos/NWCARIB0604.jpg

[tailgater]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 041521
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN JUN 04 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA... WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS... SCATTERED SHOWERS... AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... JAMAICA... CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR... LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS... AND EXTENDING AS FAR EAST
AS HAITI... THE BAHAMAS... AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

I guess they think it's worth watching

[Rainband]

Yes this time of year, if conditions improve and it hangs out down there, it is worth a second look. Time will tell. This is the area favored for development in June

[O Town]

Great map Rocky, puts things into prespective.

[spinfan4eva]

Careful people, if this thing develops, a few people in the Caribbean & bahamas could loose their AC. AC discomfort rating increased to level 2-repeat:2 IOW you may have to go to a friends house to borrow and enjoy their AC. Im going to get the Newspaper-the local eye on the storm guide is in todays paper

[Taffy]

So this one is different than the one that was supposed to cross over Cuba today and Monday? LOL I am losing track of the blobs.

I love the map you put up... I can visually see which area is in question. Thank you!

[rockyman]

According to what I've been reading, the low was originally supposed to have been picked up by the trough and moved across Cuba...but because it started so far south, the trough is missing the low and it's now expected to drift to the west for the next 72 hours.

If you run an IR loop, you can clearly see the convection firing near the center and getting blow off to the south...until the shear lessens, this system will stay on life support.

I'm glad you all liked the map! Most of the wind maps show either upper or lower level conditions, but not both on the same map, so it can be hard to keep track of the way upper level features are affecting the surface conditions.

[Ivan14]

So we may have TD 1 possibly sometime this week?

[HURAKAN]

Is there any possibility of a Bret/Gert/José scenario type with this low in the Bay of Campeche?

[rockyman]

I have no opinion about whether this thing will catch fire.

I was looking back at Arlene from last year...here is a clip from the wikipedia article:

Early in the season — nearly two months earlier than the first storm formation in 2004 — a low-pressure area formed and persisted north of Honduras. Despite significant shear, the low managed to become Tropical Depression One on June 8 just north of Honduras.[1] The depression began to head north towards western Cuba that day, but as it was a very large and poorly organized system under the influence of heavy shear, the official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center emphasized that the route the storm would take was uncertain.[2] Despite this uncertainty, the official forecasts were highly accurate in predicting the storm's track.


This is a good example of how shear is only one factor in development.

[Rainband]

I have no opinion about whether this thing will catch fire.

I was looking back at Arlene from last year...here is a clip from the wikipedia article:

Early in the season — nearly two months earlier than the first storm formation in 2004 — a low-pressure area formed and persisted north of Honduras. Despite significant shear, the low managed to become Tropical Depression One on June 8 just north of Honduras.[1] The depression began to head north towards western Cuba that day, but as it was a very large and poorly organized system under the influence of heavy shear, the official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center emphasized that the route the storm would take was uncertain.[2] Despite this uncertainty, the official forecasts were highly accurate in predicting the storm's track.


This is a good example of how shear is only one factor in development.

Good points. BTW Welcome Back.

[NONAME]

Does anyone know how much Shear arlene Formed in.

[Weatherfreak14]

Not sure but there is alot of convection. If shear lessens, we will se a TD in the next couple of days. Most likely not till wedesday.

[HURAKAN]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

There is no question that a low-level circulation is present. I think if shear drops and the low remains over water, we could see our first TD of the season.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree that is a LLC looks to be having all its convection sheared to the east of the center. Also a slow southward difted over the last few hours. May develop if the shear lowers.

[CHRISTY]

Big time ThunderStorms in the area.... :eek:

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah I would watch that.

[HURAKAN]

Even if nothing develops, it has been already a nice start to the hurricane season.

[whereverwx]

Here are the latest shear maps.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Shear right over it into the south of it is decreasing. That maybe way its moving that way.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html