NW Carribean

HurricaneHunter914 · #161 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jul 07, 2006 9:39 am

A long way to go and IMO once this either enters the GOM or the BOC, chances for development should increase.

#162 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jul 07, 2006 9:44 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:A long way to go and IMO once this either enters the GOM or the BOC, chances for development should increase.

Yes, by the middle of next week...maybe Tuesday???, most of the ingredients will be present in the gulf that may give us something to open our eyes a little more to.

boca · #163 Postby **boca** » Fri Jul 07, 2006 9:47 am

Conditions may be perfect on Tuesday,but will the wave by the Yucatan be around by than or will it of crossed over into the Pacific.

Swimdude · #164 Postby **Swimdude** » Fri Jul 07, 2006 9:47 am

All this: Just in time for my vacation to Europe. I get to miss the next 16 days of the hurricane season... And I'm about 95% sure that I'll miss Beryl along the way. At least.

#165 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jul 07, 2006 9:50 am

Swimdude wrote:All this: Just in time for my vacation to Europe. I get to miss the next 16 days of the hurricane season... And I'm about 95% sure that I'll miss Beryl along the way. At least.

Well, I don't know about you, but I'd pick an international vacation over tracking a storm any day!

boca · #166 Postby **boca** » Fri Jul 07, 2006 9:51 am

Swimdude I predicted Beryl on Aug 5th so if I'm right you might not miss anything.

#167 Postby **tailgater** » Fri Jul 07, 2006 9:53 am

There May be a MID level rotation developing again in the GOH. This Blob is tracking in a general westward motion but check out the moisture being feed into it from the south.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

HurricaneHunter914 · #168 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jul 07, 2006 9:54 am

You right boca.........He'll miss Tropical Depression #2. :lol:

#169 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jul 07, 2006 9:59 am

The wave axis is already inland over the Yucatan this morning. Convection had fired up across the NW Caribbean as it passed a small upper low. But since the wave axis has passed the low, all convection is diminishing quickly. There will probably be a flare-up of thunderstorms over the Yucatan this afternoon, and some may spread out into the BoC on Sunday, but upper level winds are not going to be favorable for any development through at least the next 5-6 days. An upper level trof is digging all the way down to the southern Gulf, producing moderate W-NW wind flow aloft. With easterly trades of 20-25 kts, a W-NW wind of 25-35 kts aloft means wind shear will be pretty high down there for a while.

Here's a 200mb wind speed/streamline forecast for Sunday morning to demonstrate the increasing wind shear.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/sgulf.gif

boca · #170 Postby **boca** » Fri Jul 07, 2006 10:02 am

tailgater wrote:There May be a MID level rotation developing again in the GOH. This Blob is tracking in a general westward motion but check out the moisture being feed into it from the south.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

I think that tail to the south is the wave axis thats all because it still is a tropical wave.

HurricaneHunter914 · #171 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jul 07, 2006 10:05 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

This wave doesn't look so good now, the convection is decreasing and the wave has shrunk. But I still think this has a chance for development once it enters the GOM.

#172 Postby **AnnularCane** » Fri Jul 07, 2006 10:06 am

skysummit wrote:
Swimdude wrote:All this: Just in time for my vacation to Europe. I get to miss the next 16 days of the hurricane season... And I'm about 95% sure that I'll miss Beryl along the way. At least.

Well, I don't know about you, but I'd pick an international vacation over tracking a storm any day!

I wouldn't. :wink:

boca · #173 Postby **boca** » Fri Jul 07, 2006 10:12 am

AnnularCane wrote:
skysummit wrote:
Swimdude wrote:All this: Just in time for my vacation to Europe. I get to miss the next 16 days of the hurricane season... And I'm about 95% sure that I'll miss Beryl along the way. At least.

Well, I don't know about you, but I'd pick an international vacation over tracking a storm any day!

I wouldn't.

I rather track a hurricane then worry about terrorism going on a international vacation.

gtalum · #174 Postby **gtalum** » Fri Jul 07, 2006 10:14 am

Who sits around worrying about terrorism? How silly.

#175 Postby **mvtrucking** » Fri Jul 07, 2006 10:14 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

This wave doesn't look so good now, the convection is decreasing and the wave has shrunk. But I still think this has a chance for development once it enters the GOM.

I would agree with wxman57 as the upper level winds will just be too much for this wave to do much. If it could hang around for 5+ days maybe, but I think it was mentioned that would be doubtful?

HurricaneHunter914 · #176 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jul 07, 2006 10:14 am

How silly? Have you forgotten about 9/11?

#177 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Jul 07, 2006 10:15 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:How silly? Have you forgotten about 9/11?

I also would not sit around worrying about it.

#178 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 07, 2006 10:16 am

ABNT20 KNHC 071509
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 7 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SINCE
YESTERDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER YUCATAN TODAY AND
SATURDAY. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH AND TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH PERSISTED OVER FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS
FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS IS BECOMING ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

#179 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jul 07, 2006 10:16 am

AnnularCane wrote:
skysummit wrote:
Swimdude wrote:All this: Just in time for my vacation to Europe. I get to miss the next 16 days of the hurricane season... And I'm about 95% sure that I'll miss Beryl along the way. At least.

Well, I don't know about you, but I'd pick an international vacation over tracking a storm any day!

I wouldn't.

LOL....well let me re-phrase that. If it was France, yea, I'd much rather stay at home and track tropical systems, wash clothes, clean out old TV Dinner plates, etc. Now, if it was Italy, New Zealand, Bora Bora, or playing with the penguins down in Antarctica, I'd jump on that in a heartbeat!

I don't they he'll be missing much though.

#180 Postby **tailgater** » Fri Jul 07, 2006 10:17 am

Wow 57 that's a good bit farther than the models were predicting earlier, last I heared, it was only going to may it to the NGOM coast today then start retreating.
I didn't think the wave had any chance, but this tail of moisture that is being enhanced by the small upper trough over the Yucatan, I thought could if it stayed in the NW Carribean long enough, but if that kind of shear is realized then forget about it.
Maybe a weekend with no Invest huh.

NW Carribean

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