Update: Fat lady has yet to sing--Chris lives!

[N2FSU]

This is not to suggest Chris is going to do the same, but here is a follow up to something someone posted in another forum regarding an infamous storm from 1992 that came back from the dead:

From the NHC archives:

..."The change in track also brought the tropical storm into an environment of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and quite high surface pressures to its north. Although the estimated maximum wind speed of Andrew varied little then, a rather remarkable evolution occurred.

Satellite images suggest that Andrew produced deep convection only sporadically for several days, mainly in several bursts of about 12 hours duration. Also, the deep convection did not persist. Instead, it was stripped away from the low-level circulation by the strong southwesterly flow at upper levels. Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft investigated Andrew and, on the 20th, found that the cyclone had degenerated to the extent that only a diffuse low-level circulation center remained. Andrew's central pressure rose considerably (Fig. 2 [87K GIF]). Nevertheless, the flight-level data indicated that Andrew retained a vigorous circulation aloft. Wind speeds near 70 kt were measured at an altitude of 1500 ft near a convective band lying to the northeast of the low-level center. Hence, Andrew is estimated on 20 August to have been a tropical storm with 40 kt surface winds and an astonishingly high central pressure of 1015 mb (Figs. 2 and 3 [87K GIF]).

Significant changes in the large-scale environment near and downstream from Andrew began by 21 August. Satellite imagery in the water vapor channel indicated that the low aloft to the east-southeast of Bermuda weakened and split. The bulk of the low opened into a trough which retreated northward. That evolution decreased the vertical wind shear over Andrew. The remainder of the low dropped southward to a position just southwest of Andrew where its circulation enhanced the upper-level outflow over the tropical storm. At the same time, a strong and deep high pressure cell formed near the U.S. southeast coast. A ridge built eastward from the high into the southwestern Atlantic with its axis lying just north of Andrew. The associated steering flow over the tropical storm became easterly. Andrew turned toward the west, accelerated to near 16 kt, and quickly intensified."

[Recurve]

I checked this thread because the last few frames of the rainbow IR loop show convection blooming to the southeast of the circlulation. I was pretty sure this system didn't have a chance, but it may be able to maintain TS strength if it stays offshore of the islands. I hope for Hispanola, Cuba and Florida's sake it stays very weak and dies before going much further, but the little burst there now is a last gasp maybe.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

The upper low to the west looks to be coming over Florida now

[Duffy]

Well i would like to state that since my name is Chris, i am kinda attached to this storm lol
I don't want it to hurt anyone.....but i am impressed with its fighting ability!
Go Chris Go!

[Grease Monkey]

Everybody wants to be like Chris.

[HouTXmetro]

Everybody wants to be like Chris.

lol, you are too full of yourself today.

[wxman57]

I checked this thread because the last few frames of the rainbow IR loop show convection blooming to the southeast of the circlulation. I was pretty sure this system didn't have a chance, but it may be able to maintain TS strength if it stays offshore of the islands. I hope for Hispanola, Cuba and Florida's sake it stays very weak and dies before going much further, but the little burst there now is a last gasp maybe.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

The upper low to the west looks to be coming over Florida now

Look at the upper low just NE of Chris that's racing SW. Should be colliding with Chris over the next few hours. Let's see if that convection lasts beyond the next hour or two.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

That's what i'm seeing as well.

[tgenius]

I checked this thread because the last few frames of the rainbow IR loop show convection blooming to the southeast of the circlulation. I was pretty sure this system didn't have a chance, but it may be able to maintain TS strength if it stays offshore of the islands. I hope for Hispanola, Cuba and Florida's sake it stays very weak and dies before going much further, but the little burst there now is a last gasp maybe.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

The upper low to the west looks to be coming over Florida now

Look at the upper low just NE of Chris that's racing SW. Should be colliding with Chris over the next few hours. Let's see if that convection lasts beyond the next hour or two.

No Possibility of that low helping Chris, or do 2 lows coliding cancel each other out?

[Grease Monkey]

Until then here's a little mood music for chris:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/music/clipserv ... 33-8047826

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I checked this thread because the last few frames of the rainbow IR loop show convection blooming to the southeast of the circlulation. I was pretty sure this system didn't have a chance, but it may be able to maintain TS strength if it stays offshore of the islands. I hope for Hispanola, Cuba and Florida's sake it stays very weak and dies before going much further, but the little burst there now is a last gasp maybe.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

The upper low to the west looks to be coming over Florida now

Look at the upper low just NE of Chris that's racing SW. Should be colliding with Chris over the next few hours. Let's see if that convection lasts beyond the next hour or two.

No Possibility of that low helping Chris, or do 2 lows coliding cancel each other out?

No, the upper low is what's been shearing it.

[WmE]

Until then here's a little mood music for chris:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/music/clipserv ... 33-8047826

[Recurve]

Thanks WXMAN and KFDM. Nice to get your observations contrast that little orange blip on the sat loop.

Assume you're talking about around 24n 65w, not the swirl over Sfla around 26 N 79 W?

[Pebbles]

I'm a Chris too (but a girl) and everytime I fall on my butt, I just get right back up and come back for more. Question is can the boy Chris be just as tough? *winks jokingly*

Btw LOL at the mood music

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Thanks WXMAN and KFDM. Nice to get your observations contrast that little orange blip on the sat loop.

Assume you're talking about around 24n 65w, not the swirl over Sfla around 26 N 79 W?

Right. The upper low over Florida is not causing the shear.

[HouTXmetro]

Chis* rap beat in background


It's been a long time
I shouldn't have left you
Without a dope storm to scare you
Think of all the many many hours you slept through
Well I'm back, sorry I kept you

I know that you wish to be like the King Chris
The slickest, male, cyclonist
Sit by your computer hoping I fire convection soon
WELL I'M BACK, NOW CLICK ON THE SATTELITE ZOOM

It ain't no mo to it, Go head NHC

[JonathanBelles]

Chis* rap beat in background


It's been a long time
I shouldn't have left you
Without a dope storm to scare you
Think of all the many many hours you slept through
Well I'm back, sorry I kept you

I know that you wish to be like the King Chris
The slickest, male, cyclonist
Sit by your computer hoping I fire convection soon
WELL I'M BACK, NOW CLICK ON THE SATTELITE ZOOM

It ain't no mo to it, Go head NHC

that is good!

[HouTXmetro]

Chis* rap beat in background


It's been a long time
I shouldn't have left you
Without a dope storm to scare you
Think of all the many many hours you slept through
Well I'm back, sorry I kept you

I know that you wish to be like the King Chris
The slickest, male, cyclonist
Sit by your computer hoping I fire convection soon
WELL I'M BACK, NOW CLICK ON THE SATTELITE ZOOM

It ain't no mo to it, Go head NHC

I just replaced the words of an old rap song.

that is good!

[dixiebreeze]

The 8::05 Discussion is late. Makes me wonder if the NHC is reconsidering various aspects of Chris' future.

[jhamps10]

they don't do discussions for the 8PM advisory

[HouTXmetro]

The 8::05 Discussion is late. Makes me wonder if the NHC is reconsidering various aspects of Chris' future.

please elaborate