Invest 97L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Dean4Storms
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#161 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:53 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:Looks like it may end up in the Southern Bahamas/SE of Florida by the end of the model plots (if I had to say right now). Interesting.


I wouldn't put that much stock in those model plots beyond a couple days right now.
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CronkPSU
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#162 Postby CronkPSU » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:53 pm

well those model plots will certainly wake a lot of people up....expect this place to start getting the 100 or so users on at a time like we had last year if it is making a bee line towards SE Florida/GOM
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#163 Postby jasons2k » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:54 pm

I'd wait a few runs and at least let the globals grab it before speculating.
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#164 Postby Stratosphere747 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:54 pm

I'll have to check, but looked to be an upper ridge to the north that would keep whatever this is moving towards the west.
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#165 Postby skysummit » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:55 pm

Yea....like always, the models seem to be recurving too soon.
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Scorpion

#166 Postby Scorpion » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:55 pm

I am in South FL and am not concerned about this one at all.
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Dean4Storms
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#167 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:55 pm

GFS looks like it takes it toward Galveston Texas next week, although not too well organized.

Click on the 000 box till it highlights then scroll over the map and it will forward it.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/misc/ ... _sfc.shtml
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#168 Postby GeneratorPower » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:56 pm

Scorpion wrote:I am in South FL and am not concerned about this one at all.


Great. More bottled water and batteries for the rest of us.
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#169 Postby skysummit » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:57 pm

Canadian puts it in the BoC.
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#170 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:57 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:
Scorpion wrote:I am in South FL and am not concerned about this one at all.


Great. More bottled water and batteries for the rest of us.


I have no idea why you wouldn't be concerned models have it at our back door....lets hope they change :eek:
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#171 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:58 pm

gatorcane wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:
Scorpion wrote:I am in South FL and am not concerned about this one at all.


Great. More bottled water and batteries for the rest of us.


I have no idea why you wouldn't be concerned models have it at our back door....lets hope they change :eek:


Lets get a storm out of it 1st...
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gatorcane
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#172 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:58 pm

CronkPSU wrote:well those model plots will certainly wake a lot of people up....expect this place to start getting the 100 or so users on at a time like we had last year if it is making a bee line towards SE Florida/GOM


Isn't that the truth... :eek:
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#173 Postby Stratosphere747 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:59 pm

It's an invest....
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Dean4Storms
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#174 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:59 pm

Alot will depend on how deep a system we have in the Caribbean, a deeper system will turn into the ridge moreso or stair step whereas a TW or weak TC will likely stay on a more western course.
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#175 Postby Grease Monkey » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:00 pm

Scorpion wrote:I am in South FL and am not concerned about this one at all.


Same here. I always have a high supply of bottled water no matter what time of year.
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#176 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:07 pm

CronkPSU wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:I no longer think this will be an invest today. It doesn't look good as it did earlier this morning. It appears to entrenched too much in the SAL to develop now. It's also heading towards an area of higher shear east of the islands:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

May need to be watch when it gets into the Carribean though.


should have stuck to your guns


Well it didn't become an invest yesterday. :D
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TampaFl
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#177 Postby TampaFl » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:10 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:GFS looks like it takes it toward Galveston Texas next week, although not too well organized.

Click on the 000 box till it highlights then scroll over the map and it will forward it.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/misc/ ... _sfc.shtml



To me it looks like it would come very near Key West @ the 204 hr, stay just off shore the West Coast of Florida, then move inland around Mobile on the 252hrs. Of course this will change over time, but very interesting any way.


http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/misc/gfs_12z_sfc.shtml


http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/misc/gfs_12z_sfc.shtml
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#178 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:12 pm

TampaFl wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:GFS looks like it takes it toward Galveston Texas next week, although not too well organized.
Click on the 000 box till it highlights then scroll over the map and it will forward it.
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/misc/ ... _sfc.shtml

[size=7]To me it looks like it would come very near Key West @ the 204 hr, stay just off shore the West Coast of Florida, then move inland around Mobile on the 252hrs. Of course this will change over time, but very interesting any way.
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/misc/gfs_12z_sfc.shtml
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/misc/gfs_12z_sfc.shtml[/size]


That seems like a pretty accurate assesment. But, that is a good ways out. I was going to say something but, you beat me to the punch.
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Dean4Storms
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#179 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:30 pm

TampaFl wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:GFS looks like it takes it toward Galveston Texas next week, although not too well organized.

Click on the 000 box till it highlights then scroll over the map and it will forward it.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/misc/ ... _sfc.shtml



To me it looks like it would come very near Key West @ the 204 hr, stay just off shore the West Coast of Florida, then move inland around Mobile on the 252hrs. Of course this will change over time, but very interesting any way.


http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/misc/gfs_12z_sfc.shtml


http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/misc/gfs_12z_sfc.shtml



I think you are watching the precip. package, note the L it portrays in the central Gulf moving toward Galveston. This run does show most of the precip. on the eastern half of the storm.
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#180 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:34 pm

We can see the broad low here but, it is not closed off on the western side.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_1.html

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