Invest 97L Observation, Interpretation & Analysis (#2)

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whereverwx
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#161 Postby whereverwx » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:28 pm

I don't think this has been posted yet. If it has, I'm too lazy to look back at the other pages.

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#162 Postby Stormavoider » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:29 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:i have a feeling tha tthis will be the SFL storm of the year.


Do you have any data to back that up...or is this because you live there...


He said it was a feeling. We probably don't wan't to delve any deeper.
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#163 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:30 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:

remember wilma's path? an charlie too?still a possible threat!


Wilma...Late October...totally different season...westerlies turned it. The fall is a very fluid season and subtropical highs are transient and the models have a hard time with them because of the rapid movement of shortwaves and longwave trofs.

Charlie-BIG trof in the Gulf.

I don't see a big trof and it's not fall.
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#164 Postby senorpepr » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:33 pm

I still say this may give Nebraska a good shot at some cirrus. :wink:
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#165 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:35 pm

Ok calm down please.The theme is 97L and not an individual.
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#166 Postby caribepr » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:36 pm

senorpepr wrote:I still say this may give Nebraska a good shot at some cirrus. :wink:


Those square states have to have something happening late summer! Cirrus is pretty!
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#167 Postby crown » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:38 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:i have a feeling tha tthis will be the SFL storm of the year.


Thankfully forecasting does not rely on "feelings" as feelings have no brains
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#168 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:39 pm

582
WHXX04 KWBC 232332
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 23

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.5 54.8 280./20.0
6 11.1 56.0 295./13.6
12 11.4 58.2 277./20.9
18 11.8 59.8 284./16.4
24 12.1 61.2 281./14.4
30 12.4 62.8 282./16.0
36 12.4 64.3 270./13.9
42 12.5 65.8 272./14.9
48 13.3 67.1 303./15.6
54 13.3 68.4 269./12.2
60 13.8 69.5 294./11.8
66 14.5 70.7 298./13.5
72 15.4 71.7 315./13.6
78 15.9 73.0 290./13.3
84 16.5 73.9 303./10.3
90 17.7 74.9 320./15.4
96 18.8 76.3 308./16.9
102 19.5 77.6 299./15.1
108 20.2 78.8 299./13.1
114 20.8 79.9 298./11.5
120 21.4 81.0 298./12.0
126 21.8 82.1 291./10.8

GFDL finnally comes out for 97L.
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#169 Postby skysummit » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:41 pm

So that's just south of Cuba I'm thinking?
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#170 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:44 pm

skysummit wrote:So that's just south of Cuba I'm thinking?



yep, if you look back on page 8 it shows the latest GFDL run...
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#171 Postby Weathermaster » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:44 pm

Why GFS take it over PR? It looks like the system get splited.
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#172 Postby cinlfla » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:44 pm

No that looks like its right on top of Cuba
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#173 Postby Vortex » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:44 pm

Just South of the western tip of Cuba.....A very precarious position for late August.
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#174 Postby skysummit » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:45 pm

cinlfla wrote:No that looks like its right on top of Cuba


Nope...right under Cuba.
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#175 Postby cinlfla » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:46 pm

My Bad.... I had to take another look :oops:
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#176 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:47 pm

notice that none of the models dissipate it like they've done with previous waves/storms? That's a change!
I'm actually surprised that the GDFL is taking it so far North.
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#177 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:49 pm

A VERY precarious location for a storm this time of the year in relation to the gulf. We all need to keep an eye on this one (Ernesto).
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#178 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:49 pm

If it keeps going this fast it might hit the tutt. If so then its going to have alot of trouble. Lets see if that upper level Anticyclone holds over it...And how fast this tutt backs. One degree farther west then this thing could just as easly be toasted. I hope not but just stating that it could do anything right now.
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#179 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:50 pm

skysummit wrote:
cinlfla wrote:No that looks like its right on top of Cuba


Nope...right under Cuba.

Roughly the same track as the 18Z BAMD/BAMM with a little more turn back towards the WNW at the end and its a little faster.
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#180 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:50 pm

skysummit wrote:So that's just south of Cuba I'm thinking?


Image

skysummit,the red line is GFDL. :)
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