TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread 12

[CalmBeforeStorm]

hey everyone,
For those GFS lovers tell me this is gonna be right??

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _042.shtml

I think its 150 miles too far north, so I don't believe this model at all right now. Meaning Ernesto would have to move NNW from its current position which its not. Its moving 300° heading.

It hasn't moved 300 degrees since 5:00 PM

your right!!! Its been moving around 285 or so...

Try about 310

5:00 15.9 71.6
11:00 16.8 72.7

9 degrees north 11 degree west

[ericinmia]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp1_072.shtml

I can see people blowing up over that one now. Putting the storm into miami in 3 days.

I am not giving almost ANY of the models any credit until the upper air mission. Then we should know better, as long as there is no bad data.

[AtlanticWind]

If the Gfs model Verified, which I am not sure how likely this is, the storm would not be as strong as if it stayed under cuba.

[Brent]

He seems to be getting very close to Haiti, it seems to be tracking right for easter side, will this have any effects on the strength of the system if, and I said IF he does in fact cross Haiti?

IF he does cross Haiti, yes I'm sure it will.

The GFS is once again HIDEOUS.

[Bolebuns]

Looks to me like convection on the western side is expoding now.

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/sat_mosa ... saecar.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

hey everyone,
For those GFS lovers tell me this is gonna be right??

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _042.shtml

I think its 150 miles too far north, so I don't believe this model at all right now. Meaning Ernesto would have to move NNW from its current position which its not. Its moving 300° heading.

It hasn't moved 300 degrees since 5:00 PM

your right!!! Its been moving around 285 or so...

Try about 310

5:00 15.9 71.6
11:00 16.8 72.7

9 degrees north 11 degree west

Wasn't there also a center relocation at 8pm (or was that 2pm..I can't remember)? or was it both?

Either way..a relocation would have nothing to do with direction.

[dwg71]

Recurve if you truley want an honest answer.....
IMO....I think that you should watch it but, i truely feel like you guys will be ok. Remember************ most of these tropical models have GFS data in them. Someone asked should we bash the GFDL...the answer is NO!! its not the fault of that its the GFS bad data or bad model fault. Pay attention to the GFDN and the CONU.

What are you basing your call that the keys will be ok, when they well within the NHC cone of Terror.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

He seems to be getting very close to Haiti, it seems to be tracking right for easter side, will this have any effects on the strength of the system if, and I said IF he does in fact cross Haiti?

IF he does cross Haiti, yes I'm sure it will.

The GFS is once again HIDEOUS.

You can say it's hideous after it doesn't verify.

[Rainband]

Recurve if you truley want an honest answer.....
IMO....I think that you should watch it but, i truely feel like you guys will be ok. Remember************ most of these tropical models have GFS data in them. Someone asked should we bash the GFDL...the answer is NO!! its not the fault of that its the GFS bad data or bad model fault. Pay attention to the GFDN and the CONU.

so we should pay attention to two models and ignore the rest. I wonder why

[CalmBeforeStorm]

hey everyone,
For those GFS lovers tell me this is gonna be right??

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _042.shtml

I think its 150 miles too far north, so I don't believe this model at all right now. Meaning Ernesto would have to move NNW from its current position which its not. Its moving 300° heading.

It hasn't moved 300 degrees since 5:00 PM

your right!!! Its been moving around 285 or so...

Try about 310

5:00 15.9 71.6
11:00 16.8 72.7

9 degrees north 11 degree west

Wasn't there also a center relocation at 8pm? A relocation would not indicate the actual direction.

The relocation took place this afternoon before the 5:00 advisory. If you go from 2:00-11:00 it's going between Nw and NNw.

[Stormcenter]

hmm, maybe I'm missing something too. I don't see any more chat on these boards during hurricane season than there's been in the last 2 years since Storm2k has been around...

but if the only time we should post is if we are posting an advisory or warning, that's okay too I guess. I guess I'll just go to the chatroom instead of making a post in the forum from now on, because I never get to posting the advisories before other people do...

I also have to agree.

[caneman]

Recurve if you truley want an honest answer.....
IMO....I think that you should watch it but, i truely feel like you guys will be ok. Remember************ most of these tropical models have GFS data in them. Someone asked should we bash the GFDL...the answer is NO!! its not the fault of that its the GFS bad data or bad model fault. Pay attention to the GFDN and the CONU.

so we should pay attention to two models and ignore the rest. I wonder why

The GFS bashing is getting old. For looking at what is currently taking place, its been on the mark.

[ConvergenceZone]

He seems to be getting very close to Haiti, it seems to be tracking right for easter side, will this have any effects on the strength of the system if, and I said IF he does in fact cross Haiti?

Well, you can't tell if it's moving in that direction or not. It's very illusionary. If you look at the north part of the storm, the convection is blowing north giving the illusion it's moving more north, but if you look at the convection that's blowing up in the west, it looks like the storm is moving more west now. Unless you can actually pinpoint the exact center(which is extremely difficult to do) you can't really tell what direction it's moving, other than go by what the NHC is reporting which is west-northwest

[Weatherfreak000]

hey everyone,
For those GFS lovers tell me this is gonna be right??

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _042.shtml

I think its 150 miles too far north, so I don't believe this model at all right now. Meaning Ernesto would have to move NNW from its current position which its not. Its moving 300° heading.

It hasn't moved 300 degrees since 5:00 PM

your right!!! Its been moving around 285 or so...

Try about 310

5:00 15.9 71.6
11:00 16.8 72.7

9 degrees north 11 degree west

Wasn't there also a center relocation at 8pm? A relocation would not indicate the actual direction.

I'm gonna have to agree with this.



You guys are gonna have to understand this and realize it's NOT been a technical straight North Jog, it was the center reforming. And then it started to resume WNW movement.


Wait until 10 AM to say it's moving NW. If this general motion persists then i'll agree it's moving NW.

[clfenwi]

-Entering the satellite blackout period now... no fresh imagery for the next couple of hours.

- The 11 PM forecast advisory stated: PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT and I think recon will verify that when it hits the center at 06Z.

- Tomorrows 00Z model runs, with the upper air data collected by the Gulfstream IV can't come soon enough.

[deltadog03]

Recurve if you truley want an honest answer.....
IMO....I think that you should watch it but, i truely feel like you guys will be ok. Remember************ most of these tropical models have GFS data in them. Someone asked should we bash the GFDL...the answer is NO!! its not the fault of that its the GFS bad data or bad model fault. Pay attention to the GFDN and the CONU.

so we should pay attention to two models and ignore the rest. I wonder why

NO, don't ignore any of them. I am saying give some more credit than others thats all. Understanding synoptic met. is very critical in looking at models. That storm should not be able to do that through that strong ridge.

[Stormavoider]

its not going to hit the Florida Peninsula period, from any side

To say such is saying things not based upon sound meteorological data

Are you still hanging with this.

I made the bold reply to someone sugggesting an Atlantic side Florida hit. "No, At least not on the Atlantic side" and you chimed in with the above. When US landfall is 4 or 5 days out, I don't think any of us Pro Met or not should be getting "uppity" about exact track.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Recurve if you truley want an honest answer.....
IMO....I think that you should watch it but, i truely feel like you guys will be ok. Remember************ most of these tropical models have GFS data in them. Someone asked should we bash the GFDL...the answer is NO!! its not the fault of that its the GFS bad data or bad model fault. Pay attention to the GFDN and the CONU.

so we should pay attention to two models and ignore the rest. I wonder why

The GFS bashing is getting old. For looking at what is currently taking place, its been on the mark.

what is currently taking place? Doesn't seem like anything has changed in the GFS's favor. Until the pro mets on here say the GFS looks reasonable, I (and I am sure many others) will simply continue to discount it.

[Derek Ortt]

again, for the 2 millionth time

This is not moving NNW

This will not hit Haiti

This will not hit the Peninsula of Florida

GFS is again showing itself as a useless model

[hurricanedude]

perhaps you should say probably not...insted of will not.....never say never my friend!