SE Texas weather thread - Strong storms Sun/Mon

Yankeegirl · #161 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 12:10 pm

When I got the kids off to school this morning it was 59....Very nice!! Last night I did notice that when I was taking out the trash, someone had a fire in the fireplace...! Now, I love to make a fire and whatnot, but at the time it was still 70 out!!! The smell was nice though, smelled like fall....

Johnny · #162 Postby **Johnny** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 12:17 pm

We got down to 51.7 here at my house! That was somewhat unexpected.

southerngale · #163 Postby **southerngale** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 12:23 pm

It reached 52° at my house. I believe it was 54° officially at the airport.

It sure felt nice when I let my dog outside about 6am. Ahhhh!

Extremeweatherguy · #164 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 2:54 pm

Officially IAH hit 57F last night and Hooks hit 55F...coolest night of the year for sure!

Areas north of I-10 will be in the 50s again tonight (though about 1-3F warmer).

BTW: 2004 and 2005 featured 0 nights in the 50s at IAH. This year is off to a cooler start for sure.

Extremeweatherguy · #165 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 6:05 am

NWS is forecasting a low Thursday night of 53F in north Houston and 55F at IAH! The high on Friday looks like it will also struggle to even reach 80F.

JenBayles · #166 Postby **JenBayles** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 9:37 am

We're making plans for a motor-sickle ride out west of Houston to the Round Top area. Perfect weather for a ride and sitting' around under the elms in Warrington enjoy an adult beverage. :cheesy:

Extremeweatherguy · #167 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 3:32 pm

Latest GFS trends continue to show it very cool tomorrow night through Friday with the coldest lows of the season on Thursday night and highs only in the 70s on Friday. Then, it warms us up next week before cooling us down again next weekend and the week beyond with two deep troughs forecasted to dip down into the U.S. by mid October. All in all it looks nice with a near normal or below normal temperature trend expected for next month (except for next week when it may be warm).

Yankeegirl · #168 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 11:53 am

I guess its getting a little closer, my hubby said he felt a few drops while he was cleaning the car.... Sitting at 81.5 right now here in Katy...

#169 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 12:36 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2043
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT THU SEP 28 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAINS/WATERS...FAR SWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281715Z - 281915Z

ISOLATED SVR TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE
MIDDLE/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAINS AND FAR SWRN LA THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HRS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEVELOPING SFC WAVE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS SERN TX IN THE VICINITY OF IAH. THE MODIFIED 12Z LCH
SOUNDING AND 15Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND 2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE...AROUND 50 J/KG OF MLCINH AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 80S. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH A MODEST LOW LEVEL WAA
PROFILE BENEATH THE REMAINING INVERSION WAS SUPPORTING A RECENT
INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT /30 N BPT TO NEAR IAH
TO 20 N OF VCT/. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT REMAINING CINH SHOULD
DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS...AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS BY 20Z. PER
REGIONAL PROFILER DATA...MODERATE NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW /30 KTS/
BENEATH 10 KTS OF SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AROUND 30
KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. GIVEN AMT OF EXPECTED INSTABILITY BY MID
AFTERNOON /3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE/ ALONG WITH MODEST SHEAR AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES...AN ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST TSTMS.

http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/md/md2043.html

Johnny · #170 Postby **Johnny** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 12:54 pm

Winds are now out of the NW in Conroe at 5 to 10 mph.

PTrackerLA · #171 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 1:23 pm

Sure has gotten hot again here today. Where is that front?!

Yankeegirl · #172 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 1:29 pm

Its gettin closer!!!

Extremeweatherguy · #173 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 2:38 pm

I am very upset right now. As of this morning we were only expected to reach 78-80F tomorrow...but now the latest forecast calls for 84F...what's up with that! :grr:

Also, our forecasted low of 53F a few days ago has risen to 59F. Needless to say, I am not in a good mood right now. I was really looking foward to the first *sunny* day in the 70s tomorrow.

JenBayles · #174 Postby **JenBayles** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 2:47 pm

I caught a bit of Dr. Neil's forecast on Ch. 11 last night, and he wasn't really buying the big cool down for this front - at least, if I head it right. I was only listening with one ear at the time. Did anyone else see what he had to say?

Just got back from some errands, and frankly, it's pretty soupy outside right now.

#175 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 2:55 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I am very upset right now. As of this morning we were only expected to reach 78-80F tomorrow...but now the latest forecast calls for 84F...what's up with that! Also, our forecasted low of 53F a few days ago has risen to 59F. Needless to say, I am not in a good mood right now. I was really looking foward to the first *sunny* day in the 70s tomorrow.

DON'T EVEN TELL ME THAT!!! I haven't had much time to watch the weather the last few days so I was waiting for the 70's for highs too!!! :grr:

Extremeweatherguy · #176 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 9:58 pm

If Hooks hits 59F or lower tonight it will be their 5th time this season, and if IAH does, it will be their 2nd time in the 50s this September (but IAH has also hit 60F two times as well). Hobby's lowest temp. this month was 60F.

Here are the updated forecast lows for tonight:

Hooks = 59F
IAH = 61F
Hobby = 64F

BTW, here is a look at the number of mornings in the 50s at Hooks, IAH and Hobby airports during the past three Septembers:

2005
Hooks = 0
IAH = 0
Hobby = 0

2004
Hooks = 0
IAH = 0
Hobby = 0

2003
Hooks = 2
IAH = 2
Hobby = 1

..So far 2006 looks to be leading the way when compared to the last few years..

Yankeegirl · #177 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 10:59 pm

Thats good, I like the cold weather...

#178 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Sep 29, 2006 9:06 am

I didn't buy the 70's for highs today - it was pretty clear that was overdone and really those numbers should have never been issued.

Anyway.......it looks like summer will be back in full force for the next week. Sounds like I'm in the minority - but I'm VERY EXCITED about this!!! I get another weekend of pool weather

:bday:

:bday::bday::bday::bday::bday:

Extremeweatherguy · #179 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Sep 29, 2006 2:46 pm

jschlitz wrote:I didn't buy the 70's for highs today - it was pretty clear that was overdone and really those numbers should have never been issued.

Anyway.......it looks like summer will be back in full force for the next week. Sounds like I'm in the minority - but I'm VERY EXCITED about this!!! I get another weekend of pool weather

:bday::bday::bday::bday::bday:

we will also have to watch the tropics next week too. With a high building in...any activity near FL, in the GOM or in the NW Caribbean should be steered westward toward Mexico or TX.

Extremeweatherguy · #180 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Sep 29, 2006 2:51 pm

The GFS does start cooling us back down by Oct. 10th though:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _264.shtml
^^strong front heading in on day 11^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _288.shtml
^^big trough in the plains^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _312.shtml
^^reinforcements/stronger cold moving down on day 13 with another canadian front^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _336.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _360.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _384.shtml
^^days 14-16 would be VERY chilly if this GFS pattern turns out to be correct. A canadian airmass and overiding moisture could lead to some abnormaly low October high temperatures.^^

BTW: JB is also calling for the "dam to break" in 10-20 days across the plains letting in a lot of cold air.

SE Texas weather thread - Strong storms Sun/Mon

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