No big deal [Florida straits]

[Aric Dunn]

wow can someone check what the rainfall down near miami has been i see some doppler estiamtes of 10 + inches.. on the barrier islands down there..!

[O Town]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED NEAR THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Aric Dunn]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED NEAR THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

i really think .. that there secretaries write these sometime.. or they say hey .. can you just post the last but change a word or tow

[NDG]

If this low pressure center was to move just offshore northward, it would move into lesser windshear, then it might have a better chance for organized development.

[Aric Dunn]

it is offshore....
and yeah .. .but one thing to note the shear is going to be lighter soon as the ridge in the carrib shifts northward... but its not going to be no shear .. its is supposed to drop below 20 kt over night

use this link a block all but the last 6 frames.. you see whats coming from the south

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... tjava.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Tremendous rain over some areas where
training occurs.

[NDG]

it is offshore....
and yeah .. .but one thing to note the shear is going to be lighter soon as the ridge in the carrib shifts northward... but its not going to be no shear .. its is supposed to drop below 20 kt over night

use this link a block all but the last 6 frames.. you see whats coming from the south

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... tjava.html" target="_blank

Yes, I know it is offshore, I meant as it moves northward to stay offshore.

[tailgater]

Looks like there may be a center just south of Melbrone.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... B&loop=yes
Put in loop and check only radar, leave highways, counties, Topo and cities and blank.

[ronjon]

I think the low is just offshore of Naples now according to KW radar. Still not much convection with it but there is definitely a broad circulation center.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like there may be a center just south of Melbrone.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... B&loop=yes" target="_blank" target="_blank
Put in loop and check only radar, leave highways, counties, Topo and cities and blank.

i agree.. the center or main low that looks as though is trying to form . which looks to over land between melbourne and west palm.. i say this becasue of radar and the sw flow coming up through the everglades ... it looks like it going to reform and may shift just off shore the east coast.. interesting.. was not expecting that .. even the cmc was calling yesterday..


i take that back a little... the old center from last night is still offshore naple but looks to be heading ene.. I think its a broad low extending ene as welll because i see turning near the east coast.. i guess we have to wait.. but one thing is for sure the circulation is more noticeable today

[Aric Dunn]

we have a sw wind in west palm and ene in melbourne..

[cpdaman]

shear is out of the west at about 30 today , unless this system is headed ESE and fast there will likely be too much shear unless shear weakens and shifts to a more favorable direction in line w/ storms movement.

there is no low forming near wpb-melburne wpb winds se ft laud winds se pompano se fort pierce ese at least not now IMO

there were 3 of those radar rotations yesterday morning, they usually mean little

[NDG]

I think we have an elongated low this morning, maybe trying to reform closer to the convection on the east coast, the problem that is having with shear is that is moving about the same speed as the building ridge to the south, so it is in the same location relative to the ridge's center as it moves slowly northward, and I don't know if it can get away from shear because of the trough coming down the east coast this weekend.

[cpdaman]

ok looking at early morning visible and smoking some crack (sarcasm) i say that a low may be trying to form 100 miles east of melbourne is this possible

[cpdaman]

ARIC you there we have an invest this morning off florida!

[cycloneye]

Aric,as a new thread for the new invest was made,so this thread is now locked.Now all the discussions are being posted in the 95L thread.