Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models

[windstorm99]

Right now if you live in the islands you should moniter the situation but nothing to panic over.Adrian

[Sjones]

Well, it's past my nap time...Maybe when I awake, this will have a classification

['CaneFreak]

The dry air is temporarily eating away that north side, but the system is trying hard to fight it off and push that dry air away from the center....it sure is a fighter...if it can just hang in there....we'll have a system to watch further on down the road...

[MiamiensisWx]

I guess I'm seeing something a little different than some here. I'm seeing a better organized system than it was a few hours ago. Banding is becoming more pronounced, and now that the moisture blob that was over it earlier has moved off to the southwest and decreased, I'm seeing a more compact system with new thunderstorm development just to the south of where I believe the center to be. Can this activity increase and wrap? Time will tell, but it does look better to me now than it did only 2 - 4 hours ago.

I think you have noticed an illusion. The pronounced banding is an indication of outflow boundaries. Shear has increased over the system. See this loop. In addition, the LLC has become more diffuse; it is exposed; and it is elongated. Convective activity is displaced from the sfc low. Mid-level dry air intrusion has put a lid on structural organization. I have not observed any improvement with respect to convective organization. The structure remains shallow, too. I don't think it deserves a depression classification. Simultaneously, I think we should monitor some trends. I believe this sfc low may develop as it progresses closer to the Lesser Antilles.

I'll give credit to this wave's persistence. Personally, I believe it may have a better shot at development as it enters the eastern Caribbean Sea. Although this region can be a graveyard, it should be noted that Dennis intensified within this region. In addition, I have not noticed any indications of increasing upper-level westerly shear; the GFS may be overestimating the mid-range shear values within the Caribbean Sea. Look at the latest trends. If this system continues to maintain a distinct wave axis, it may experience periodic spurts of convection as it maintains a broad LLC. As it approaches the Caribbean, it may encounter more conducive thermodynamics; thus, I believe we have been witnessing some hints of the future development of this system.

[Derek Ortt]

looking at the afternoon sats...




This feature looks as if it is TOO WEAK to be classified, or MAYBE a 1.0/1.0 (or a .5/1.0). Never should have received a 1.5/1.5 this morning

[cycloneye]

03/1745 UTC 10.5N 39.9W T1.0/1.5 96L -- Atlantic Ocean


Derek 1.0/1.5.Agree with you on your comments above.

[Buck]

I was surprised to see how this looks. Its certainly no super-storm but a couple of days ago I thought this would surely die. The first time I see it since then it's looking better!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Might not be a tropical depression now...but with lower
shear near E. Caribbean
slow development possible almost likely IMO...

[windstorm99]

Wow dont move north buddy or you might be toast...

[skysummit]

I guess I'm seeing something a little different than some here. I'm seeing a better organized system than it was a few hours ago. Banding is becoming more pronounced, and now that the moisture blob that was over it earlier has moved off to the southwest and decreased, I'm seeing a more compact system with new thunderstorm development just to the south of where I believe the center to be. Can this activity increase and wrap? Time will tell, but it does look better to me now than it did only 2 - 4 hours ago.

I think you have noticed an illusion. The pronounced banding is an indication of outflow boundaries. Shear has increased over the system. See this loop. In addition, the LLC has become more diffuse; it is exposed; and it is elongated. Convective activity is displaced from the sfc low. Mid-level dry air intrusion has put a lid on structural organization. I have not observed any improvement with respect to convective organization. The structure remains shallow, too. I don't think it deserves a depression classification.

No, I'm not seeing an "illusion". I'm aware of what outflow boundaries are, and this banding I'm speaking of is not outflow boundaries. Now...it's not "great" banding, however, I do believe it's a little more pronounced than earlier today. I also see a hint of convective activity developing pretty close to the sfc low....if there still is one. I don't think the dry air to the north is having much of an affect on it holding its own, but it is dampening its chances at getting much better organized in the near future. I suspect we'll be seeing another blow up of convection near the center over the next few hours. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Also, I do NOT believe this to be a depression.

I don't see it doing much in the near future, but do believe it has a decent chance at slow development in the days to come.

[Buck]

Those showers up ahead of him (or her if she makes it to Chantal) might be it's key to survival.

[Derek Ortt]

to say that this thing is a TD at the present time is equivalent to saying that all current pro cyclists do NOT dope for races

[skysummit]

to say that this thing is a TD at the present time is equivalent to saying that all current pro cyclists do NOT dope for races

Who is saying this is a TD right now???

[Derek Ortt]

not you, but there were a few other posts suggesting as such

[cycloneye]

Regardless of what will occur with 96L,there is no dispute that this wave/low has been the best system in the Atlantic including Andrea,Barry and all the invests combined.I dont know if I am exagerating in my comments but that is how I see the evolvement of 96L against all the other systems that had appeared in 2007.

[wjs3]

to say that this thing is a TD at the present time is equivalent to saying that all current pro cyclists do NOT dope for races

Ouch.

Derek...just let me enjoy the tour de france, OK?

WJS3

[skysummit]

Regardless of what will occur with 96L,there is no dispute that this wave/low has been the best system in the Atlantic including Andrea,Barry and all the invests combined.I dont know if I am exagerating in my comments but that is how I see the evolvement of 96L against all the other systems that had appeared in 2007.

Totally agree Luis! This definately is the best so far. I kind of feel like I'm not wasting my time watching it

[windstorm99]

Slow development seems somewhat possible to me with 96L.Overall this should be used as warm up that in the next 4-6 weeks some of this waves will go ahead and develope as we get deeper into the season.

[cycloneye]

6
WHXX01 KWBC 031824
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1824 UTC TUE JUL 3 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962007) 20070703 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070703 1800 070704 0600 070704 1800 070705 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.3N 39.8W 10.5N 41.2W 10.5N 42.9W 10.4N 44.8W
BAMD 10.3N 39.8W 10.7N 42.3W 10.9N 44.8W 10.9N 47.3W
BAMM 10.3N 39.8W 10.7N 41.4W 11.1N 43.0W 11.2N 44.7W
LBAR 10.3N 39.8W 10.8N 42.1W 11.4N 44.9W 11.9N 47.7W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 24KTS 25KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 24KTS 25KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070705 1800 070706 1800 070707 1800 070708 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.5N 47.1W 11.5N 52.1W 12.8N 57.9W 15.3N 64.4W
BAMD 10.8N 49.7W 11.3N 54.1W 12.8N 58.3W 14.8N 62.7W
BAMM 11.6N 46.8W 13.2N 51.8W 15.6N 57.0W 18.2N 62.7W
LBAR 12.4N 50.8W 13.4N 56.5W 15.1N 60.8W 17.9N 65.9W
SHIP 27KTS 27KTS 30KTS 33KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 30KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.3N LONCUR = 39.8W DIRCUR = 287DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 37.4W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 9.0N LONM24 = 35.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN


The peak winds from ship is 33kts in this 18:00z run of the tropical models.

[windstorm99]