Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean

[fci]

Latest IR pic......its pretty obvious something is trying to get going down there. You don't normally see that kind of convection even with the average wave.

Hopefully IF something forms it will form north of the islands and recurve (and spare the islands)...I don't like the looks of this thing

Hey Gatorcane:

I believe we have just witnessed your FIRST EEK of the season!!!!!
Now we just need a "Holy Crap" and I will know that the Atlantic Season has begun!!!

[cycloneye]

West Wind In Martinique



Also Martinique has west winds.I dont know if these obs are from outflows from thunderstorms or are from a circulation.

[GeneratorPower]

That's a circulation, cycloneye. It persisted for over an hour.

[gatorcane]

That's a circulation, cycloneye. It persisted for over an hour.

well folks I can believe I am saying this but....

HERE WE GO!

and

Holy Crap!

[Opal storm]

Looks like it has a more circular appearance to it IMO. Should have a invest on this soon. Let's see if it persists overnight.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Chance of Development:
1. It has a well defined broad circulation
2. It is over high heat content waters
3. Shear is low around it and out ahead of it
4. There is a lot of moisture

The circulation is vigorous. Development looking
possible at this point.

[gatorcane]

anybody want to start guessing where it goes - although it may be a bit premature

[windstorm99]

With shear and dry air not being a significant problem things could get very interesting the next couple of days.

NOTE-Very warm SST'S down there.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

With the bermuda high
west-central gulf of mexico or near
the yucatan or into central america

[Opal storm]

anybody want to start guessing where it goes - although it may be a bit premature

Let's wait till we actually have something before we go there.

[hawkeh]

This thing sure looks better today. Looks like the switch has been flipped.

[gatorcane]

bTW we are right on time with 2004....we had nothing until July 18th that season...

[jrod]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

I dont see any banding features on the radar but the might be a MLC just south and west of St. Croix.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I kind of hope this does not form. I will be in Arizona Sunday through next Thursday and really do not want anything to threaten my neck of the woods while I am gone and not here to prepare for it.

[windstorm99]

I should head west for a while but last time i checked there is another trof of low pressure that is set to move into the southeast sometime this weekend.

[Jam151]

The west wind doesn't mean anything. It would only be significant if there were any reason to believe a LLC was located due north or east of those islands. Obviously if there were any surface circulation with this wave it would be farther west or north than Martinique or Dominica. Vvisible doesn't show much yet either....other than the outflow boundaries passing through the island chain.

Cliffs: No surface circulation yet.

[Complacency]

I don't know if this wave has a chance with all the dry air ahead of it!


BUT...if it does, it is forming very near the dreaded Herbert Box.

[Jam151]

I should head west for a while but last time i checked there is another trof of low pressure that is set to move into the southeast sometime this weekend.

All the guidance has most energy ending up north of Hispaniola, fwiw.

[JonathanBelles]

At this point, I do believe this can and will develop, but I haven't done any research yet. I will look at it after dinner in more detail.

[HUC]

Here i, the so tip of Guadeloupe,i got SSO winds 10 to 20kh,thunder,and fierce squall just to my west.Baro is normal(1013mb,and steady.Ithink in Martinica and Dominica the winds are in relation to the sqaulls that are developping in the near west coast of the se islands including Guadeloupe.Perhaps local effects???