Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

[gatorcane]

wow is it ever blowing up!

unbelievable the power of the GOM....

[Ptarmigan]

I expect this blob in GOM will become an Invest soon. As for tropical development, that's not out of the picture.

[NcentralFlaguy]

Wonder when this will be worthy of an invest, especially given its proximity to land.

[Bluefrog]

double no.. i mean triple

[Bluefrog]

can we get all the mississippi people to the beach to immediately start blowing this blob AWAY .....

[Meso]

If it's worthy for recon,it's possible to be labled an invest..It's still got a while over water and anything can happen in low shear and high SST

[Steve]

>>An area of disturbed weather has developed along the frontal boundary located in the northern Gulf of Mexico overnight and has persisted into tomorrow morning.

Derek's now working the crystal ball too.

Steve

[ronjon]

Latest 12Z Canadian brings it into Mobile Bay-Pensacola very slowly as a strong tropical storm. Could be a big rain maker if this pans out.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007080112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Ivanhater]

>>An area of disturbed weather has developed along the frontal boundary located in the northern Gulf of Mexico overnight and has persisted into tomorrow morning.

Derek's now working the crystal ball too.

Steve

haaa..I saw that too

[Nimbus]

Surface pressures over a broad area south of Nola are down around 1011. If something did spin up it could change the upper air forecast perhaps triggering a trough to drop a little further south.

As steve mentioned the flooding would be bad enough just with a slow moving depression. If the ground became saturated and then was followed by a second event from 99L it would increase the impact considerably.

[Brent]

>>An area of disturbed weather has developed along the frontal boundary located in the northern Gulf of Mexico overnight and has persisted into tomorrow morning.

Derek's now working the crystal ball too.

Steve

[Derek Ortt]

residents in the GOM should monitor this system closely. There is definately a chance that this will go ahead and develop some. I am seeing the greatest turning near 28N... do not want anything forming closer to 26N

[Derek Ortt]

making an edit now, lol

edit made

[gatorcane]

residents in the GOM should monitor this system closely. There is definately a chance that this will go ahead and develop some. I am seeing the greatest turning near 28N... do not want anything forming closer to 26N

Derek if something forms around 26N watch out that is my opinion. Things can crank quick in the GOM...and there is plenty of 82-88F water temps to work with....

By the way all if Derek is showing interest in this system you should pay attention

[Ivanhater]

All the local mets out of the Pensacola and Mobile stations are all on it now...

[gatorcane]

looks to me like the mass of convection is moving south closer to the loop current...

Gosh we all need to hope it doesn't take shape farther south.....this could get ugly.

[seaswing]

Gatorcane~

Just hearing about this. What do you mean further south?

[ronjon]

If this thing develops we have to hand it to the GFS. It started predicting this low development about a week ago. Bow to the GFS now (well, not quite yet).

[gatorcane]

looks like there is a spin now where Derek pointed out at 26N 85W about 200 miles west of Tampa Bay, Florida. That looks to be where a center could be getting going...

[Steve]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Here's an interesting scenario provided courtesy of the CMC. What apparently it does is takes a compromise from the GFS and NAM and does something completely different. I haven't looked at the rainfall rates, but what it appears to do is move the system north into Mobile or Baldwin County up into Georgia and then suppresses that energy (or some level of it) back into the Gulf of Mexico at the end of its run. LOL. scottsvb over at flhurricane believes that if anything did form, off the coast of SC after it moved up through the SE would be the place. But if the Canadian is right, the building ridge would push the energy (probably the lower or mid levels or both) back into the Gulf for round 2.

We've seen stranger things with Ivan (courtesy of the UKMET) that actually panned out. So we could be stuck with this for a while if the CMC has it right.

Who knows?

*edit* the wrf kind of hints at the South Carolina scenario.
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

Steve