Invest 99L Thread #6

[philnyc]

What time is the maximum, late PM or late AM?

AM

Meaning roughly midnight 'til around noon, but it varies by up to 2 or 3 hours.

[tailgater]

Aruba
Latest obs show 1008mb, fairly low I don't know what Recon found earlier. Winds still out of ENE.
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TNCA.html
just noticed that that's the same pressure they had yesterday.

[Eyewall]

i doubt we will see TD4.. its gonna go strait to a TS
the plane found surface winds of over 45 mph today.. another maximum should sustain that speed

[windstorm99]

Question....So the thinking is currently 99L will not be a threat to the united states.

Right now my personal opinion is its still to soon to determine that but all signs from what iam looking at point to a continued W-WNW into the western caribbean during the next couple of days.

[punkyg]

I say we are gonna sit here same time tomorrow doing and saying the same thing. were gonna say oh man it didn't develop today well theres
always tomorrow and some of yall are gonna say i stayed up all night
and still no td, but you know it could form tomorrow or tonight or the day after. oh how i hate to wait.

hey is recon flying out tomorrow?
i not giving up on 99L

[mgpetre]

Question....So the thinking is currently 99L will not be a threat to the united states.

Right now my personal opinion is its still to soon to determine that but all signs from what iam looking at point to a continued W-WNW into the western caribbean during the next couple of days.

I would think most everyone agrees that its not going to curve towards FL or the eastern GOM for the time being and only a few of us really believe it will be heading towards US mainland, but that's still a long ways out.

[astrosbaseball22]

Mexico or Texas

[wxman57]

Question....So the thinking is currently 99L will not be a threat to the united states.

Right now my personal opinion is its still to soon to determine that but all signs from what iam looking at point to a continued W-WNW into the western caribbean during the next couple of days.

Looks reasonable to me. It's fairly far south now, and there's nothing to steer it northward. Once it runs past the southern part of the ridge on Saturday it'll slow down a lot as it nears Honduras. That's the place to look for development. Then it should move inland at a rather slow speed and cross the Yucatan. May lose any LLC it develops before moving ashore, maybe not. It'll most likely cross the southern or central BoC early next week before moving inland into MX south of Tampico. There should be another ridge building over Texas and the NW Gulf by early next week. That should keep it from turning northward into the Gulf.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Mexico or Texas

Yep. Looks like Mexico or central America will be most likely..but TX or LA is possible if this can find a weakness between the 2 building ridges. Really too early to make a call though..let's let it develop first.

BTW: Strength is also a factor. The stronger the system, the more likely it will be to head further north (and vice versa).

[wxman57]

i doubt we will see TD4.. its gonna go strait to a TS
the plane found surface winds of over 45 mph today.. another maximum should sustain that speed

One reason for the strong winds is the rapid forward speed and tight pressure gradient to the north of the wave axis. Once the wave slows down on Saturday, those winds on the northern side will drop off significantly. So it won't necessarily become a TS if/when a LLC develops.

[philnyc]

Did anyone notice the GFS shear forecast from the 12Z run this morning? It has shear decreasing overnight and tomorrow:


Here's shear for 00Z this evening:



And for tomorrow morning at 12Z:



And for 00Z tomorrow evening:

[Eyewall]

i doubt we will see TD4.. its gonna go strait to a TS
the plane found surface winds of over 45 mph today.. another maximum should sustain that speed

One reason for the strong winds is the rapid forward speed and tight pressure gradient to the north of the wave axis. Once the wave slows down on Saturday, those winds on the northern side will drop off significantly. So it won't necessarily become a TS if/when a LLC develops.

it doesnt have a close low right now.. so your saying even if it gets better organized, its gonna be weaker?? doubt that.. the pressure gradient will still be there, even if it slows down by 10 kts, that 10 kts should be made up for by the increased organization

[HURAKAN]

Either way, 99L needs to learn Spanish and how to eat spicy food!!!

The western and central Caribbean have always been more favorable for TC formation. Like I have said before, I'm expecting Dean to develop in one of these two regions. Nonetheless, Jamaica, Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, noreastern Nicaragua, Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula should expect heavy showers and some t-storms with Dean or no Dean.

People may say, "well, if it doesn't develop then there is no problem," and that's a wrong statement because if it develops then we should expect stronger winds and more concentrated rainfall near the center, but if it doesn't develop we should still anticipate heavy rainfall that could cause landslides and flooding. Like it was mentioned previously, in May 2004 a tropical wave caused around 2000 deaths in Haiti, just a tropical wave.

A potentially dangerous situation is still looming, Dean or not.

[astrosbaseball22]

yeah no LLC

[cheezyWXguy]

isnt it true that today all it needed was a west wind to close off? If not, what other wind components are needed?

[HURAKAN]

isnt it true that today all it needed was a west wind to close off? If not, what other wind components are needed?

We just needed a west wind and we could have been talking right now about Dean. Nothing else is missing in this puzzle.

[cheezyWXguy]

isnt it true that today all it needed was a west wind to close off? If not, what other wind components are needed?

We just needed a west wind and we could have been talking right now about Dean. Nothing else is missing in this puzzle.

I guess it just needs to slow down and itll get some time for that west wind, and then well have TD 4 or Dean

[Eyewall]

isnt it true that today all it needed was a west wind to close off? If not, what other wind components are needed?

We just needed a west wind and we could have been talking right now about Dean. Nothing else is missing in this puzzle.

if it were moving 10 mph slower i think you might have found light west winds.. to tell you the truth i really belive that there is a low but because of the movement its not showing.. one thing on my mind is i havent seen convection like that on an open wave in a while.. theres gotta be something more under there thats causing the extra instability

[dwg71]

isnt it true that today all it needed was a west wind to close off? If not, what other wind components are needed?

We just needed a west wind and we could have been talking right now about Dean. Nothing else is missing in this puzzle.

if it were moving 10 mph slower i think you might have found light west winds.. to tell you the truth i really belive that there is a low but because of the movement its not showing.. one thing on my mind is i havent seen convection like that on an open wave in a while.. theres gotta be something more under there thats causing the extra instability

Convection of any significance is just about gone, what is there is wll removed from the suspected center.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[astrosbaseball22]

cant wait untill 805-1030