Western Caribbean Disturbance

[Ed Mahmoud]

Doesn't look too impressive.

Not a 'season cancel', but a 'season reprieve', perhaps, until the famous La Niña season October Caribbean storm threatens the Cnetral or Eastern Gulf.

Ok, how do we make the 'enye', the n with a tilde over it. Most blogs it is ñ.

[HURAKAN]

Caribbean Disturbance
Updated: Friday, September 21, 2007 6:10 PM



Forecasting tropical development is often a watch and wait game. A suspicious cloud mass might have the earmarks of something bigger, but until it develops a circulation, there is no guarantee that it will amount to anything. A system of that nature exists in the western Caribbean right now. There is a lot of convection going on, but there is no well defined low pressure center. In favor of development is the extremely warm water that it is centered over. On the other hand, the prevailing winds through the region aren't ideal. So we'll just have to wait and see what happens to it over the weekend.

Story by AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist John Kocet

http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.a ... &article=2

[Ed Mahmoud]

It doesn't look half as good as it did this afternoon.

Out on a limb, September is over, but October will bring at least one more US threat.

[attallaman]

Caribbean Disturbance
Updated: Friday, September 21, 2007 6:10 PM



Forecasting tropical development is often a watch and wait game. A suspicious cloud mass might have the earmarks of something bigger, but until it develops a circulation, there is no guarantee that it will amount to anything. A system of that nature exists in the western Caribbean right now. There is a lot of convection going on, but there is no well defined low pressure center. In favor of development is the extremely warm water that it is centered over. On the other hand, the prevailing winds through the region aren't ideal. So we'll just have to wait and see what happens to it over the weekend.

Story by AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist John Kocet

http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.a ... &article=2

How much longer would you say we have to go here along the Mississippi Gulf Coast before one can finally say that we've made it safely through another tropical season? Through the month of October? November? How late into the season have tropical storms formed and caused damage along the GOM coastline? How cool does the GOM, the Caribbean Sea, and the Atlantic have to get before we can safely say the tropics for the most part will now be quiet? 2006 was a very quiet year here; I'm hoping for the same for 2007 so that those who need to rebuild can continue to rebuild.

[vaffie]

It is in an area of lower level convergence, upper level divergence, very warm water, decreasing shear, increasing strong convection before the eclipse, is climatologically favorable, and has model support. I think it's just a matter of time.

[bwhorton2007]

vaffie i agree just a matter of time.And if it goes will be warm core from the start unlike the pest we just got rid of.could be an interesting week ahead.

[lamsalfl]

WOW! What a blowup during the eclipse!! I wonder if it will last all morning. At any rate, can we expect to see an Invest today on this one?

[hial2]

Doesn't look too impressive.

Not a 'season cancel', but a 'season reprieve', perhaps, until the famous La Niña season October Caribbean storm threatens the Cnetral or Eastern Gulf.

Ok, how do we make the 'enye', the n with a tilde over it. Most blogs it is ñ.

The closest I get is the N with the ~ ( eg Nin~o )..or write it this way: ninyo

[Cryomaniac]

Ok, how do we make the 'enye', the n with a tilde over it. Most blogs it is ñ.

I just copy it from the character map

eg: Hablo Español

[southerngale]

[Meso]

5:30 am TWO

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Starburst]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
336 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2007


WHAT MAY TURN OUT TO BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FOR THE AREA
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOW
DEVELOPMENT AND NORTHWEST PROGRESSION OF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF. GFS MOST ROBUST OF OPERATIONAL MODELS
WITH SYSTEM AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION. THUS MAINTAINING
RESPECTABLE POPS.

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[N2FSU]

Really firing this morning:

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[HURAKAN]

latest:

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



Visible soon!

[Emmett_Brown]

Latest:



Visible soon!

That area due east of Belize looks interesting... a bit of popcorn convection to the W of the main blob that might be indicative of an LLC trying to form?

[xironman]

Speaking of GOH the second ship here has a southwest wind

Code: Select all

ID      T1 TIME    LAT     LON DIST HDG WDIR  WSPD   GST  WVHT   DPD   APD MWD   PRES 
           (GMT)                 nm  °T   °T   kts   kts    ft   sec   sec  °T     in   
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIP     S 1200  21.50  -84.80   99   8  140  19.0     -   6.6   4.0     -   -  29.87
SHIP     S 1200  17.90  -87.00  162 223  220   5.1     -   1.6   6.0     -   -  29.82


The trades are really blowing up at Yucatan channel, 31 kt. http://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056&unit=E&tz=EST

[Nimbus]

The timing has changed a little with this thing progged to come in next week instead of Sunday. If it spins up further south the shear might have time to relax over the gulf. Are they waiting for a circulation before making this an invest?